Trump's Phosphate Fertilizer Duty Suspension Buys One Season — Making It Permanent Is the Real Test

Trump's Temporary Suspension of Moroccan Phosphate Duties

On June 29, President Trump declared an emergency and suspended countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco, allowing the world's largest phosphate supplier back into the U.S. market in time for fall application. The relief is temporary: it lasts eight months or until the emergency declaration ends, whichever comes first. That window covers the coming application season, but not the multi-year horizon farmers use to plan crops and input purchases.

The duties date to a 2020 petition by a single U.S. producer against Moroccan and Russian imports. The Commerce Department issued duty orders in March 2021 after an ITC vote, with initial cash-deposit rates of roughly 20 percent on Morocco's OCP and up to 47 percent on Russian producers. Before the duties, Morocco supplied 72 percent of U.S. phosphate imports in 2019-2020. The U.S. does not produce enough of any of the three primary macronutrients — nitrogen, potassium and phosphate — to meet domestic demand, and phosphate is the most constrained because it depends on natural rock deposits.

Prices climbed sharply in the same window. Wholesale MAP at New Orleans reached as high as $550 per ton around the turn of 2021, up more than $130 in a single month; retail MAP hit $800 per ton by September 2021; and DAP set an all-time record above $1,000 per ton in spring 2022. Texas A&M's Agricultural and Food Policy Center estimates the phosphate duties cost U.S. producers $6.9 billion on major crops from 2021 through 2025. In an opinion piece for Agri-Pulse, economist Dave Juday acknowledges other pressures — natural gas costs, pandemic-era supply snarls and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — but argues the duties removed the largest supplier at exactly the wrong moment.

The White House proclamation itself acknowledges that U.S. agriculture cannot meet domestic demand after exports and that expanding production capacity takes time. The CVD orders are now in their five-year sunset review, and the ITC has agreed to a full review. Juday's argument is straightforward: if that logic holds for the next eight months, it holds for the crop years beyond, so Commerce should let the orders lapse permanently.

Why Morocco's Phosphate Reserves Define the Duty Debate

The Supply Math Behind the Relief

Juday's case rests on a structural fact: U.S. farmers depend on imports for all three primary macronutrients, and phosphate is the tightest link in the chain. Morocco holds nearly 70 percent of global phosphate reserves, and the top five producing countries account for 80 percent of output. Before the countervailing duties, Morocco supplied 72 percent of U.S. phosphate imports. That concentration means a trade remedy aimed at one supplier does not create a new domestic source; it mainly removes the largest supplier from the market.

A Timeline That Tracks the Price Run-Up

The regulatory sequence is the strongest part of the opinion. The ITC opened its investigation in June 2020, Commerce made its final subsidy finding in February 2021, and the duty orders followed in March 2021. MAP and DAP prices rose sharply over the same stretch, with DAP going above $1,000 per ton by spring 2022. Juday is careful to note that the Ukraine war, higher natural gas costs and supply chain disruptions also pushed prices. That makes this an argument about timing and the loss of a supply cushion, not a clean single-cause story.

What the Sunset Review Actually Decides

The suspension is an emergency measure, not a repeal. The decisive forum is the five-year sunset review the ITC has agreed to conduct. If Commerce lets the orders lapse, the relief becomes permanent; if not, the eight-month window simply delays the return of duties. The administration's own proclamation — conceding that domestic production cannot meet demand and that capacity expansion takes time — gives the pro-repeal side a documented basis, because the same logic applies after the emergency window closes.

Who Wins and Who Loses

The petitioning domestic producer has benefited from import protection; farmers have borne the cost, estimated at $6.9 billion on major crops. A group of senators warned Commerce in 2023 that the duties had exposed farmers to the risk of inadequate supply, and Sen. Charles Grassley has argued for ending the duties rather than keeping them to generate government revenue. The alternative of subsidizing domestic expansion, Juday argues, ignores geology: grant money does not create phosphate rock deposits.

What Farmers and Commerce Should Watch in the Sunset Review

The immediate question for farmers is whether the temporary suspension translates into lower fall prices; the longer question is whether the sunset review makes it permanent. The next decision points are concrete:

• For growers: The suspension covers the coming fall application season — eight months from June 29 unless the emergency declaration ends first. Factor that window into phosphate purchase plans, and treat the possibility of duties returning as a live risk if the sunset review is not concluded before it closes.
• For Commerce and the ITC: Use the full sunset review as the forum to decide the CVD orders' fate. The June 29 proclamation's own finding that U.S. production cannot meet demand after exports provides a documented reason to let the orders lapse.
• For lawmakers: Weigh any domestic-production subsidy proposal against the Texas A&M estimate of $6.9 billion in costs on major crops from 2021-2025 — and against the fact that the U.S. removed its largest phosphate supplier, Morocco's OCP, which supplied 72 percent of imports before the duties.