How Germany's Large-Company Insolvency Wave Built Up

Germany's large corporate insolvencies kept climbing in 2026 even as economic forecasts improved. In the first six months of the year, 33 companies with annual revenue of at least €50 million filed for insolvency, a rise of 10 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, according to credit insurer Allianz Trade.

For the whole of 2025, Germany recorded 94 large insolvencies, the highest number since the series began in 2015. That compares with 87 in 2024 and 64 in 2023. Milo Bogaerts, Allianz Trade's head for the German-speaking DACH region, said there would be no breather in 2026, with last year's negative trend becoming entrenched and adjustment pressure in many industries remaining severe.

The automotive industry was the most affected sector in the first half, with seven large insolvencies. It was followed by retail with five, mechanical engineering with four and services with four. The economic damage also rose: cumulative annual revenue of the insolvent large companies increased by 3 percent to €4.5 billion in the first half. The average revenue of the failed companies fell by almost 7 percent to around €137 million, suggesting that somewhat smaller large companies were affected.

Allianz Trade expects no sustained easing later in 2026. Sectors with high investment and energy costs, as well as companies with weak pricing power, remain vulnerable to financial distress. Globally, Allianz Trade counted 504 large insolvencies in the past four quarters. Of those, 325 were in Western Europe, with Germany accounting for 97 cases, or roughly 30 percent, ahead of France with 69, Italy with 62 and the United Kingdom with 45.

Where the Strain Is Concentrated: Autos, Retail and the Supply Chain

Why autos are the most exposed sector

Seven of the 33 large German insolvencies in the first half were automotive companies, making the sector the single largest source of failure. Allianz Trade points to high investment and energy costs and weak pricing power as the main pressures. That fits an industry carrying the costs of electrification and transformation while demand conditions remain uneven.

The supply-chain contagion risk

Large companies sit at the centre of complex value chains, so a failure of that size often puts suppliers, service providers and other business partners under pressure. The data suggest the damage is spreading: cumulative revenue of the failed firms reached €4.5 billion, while the average failed company generated around €137 million in revenue. That points to more, somewhat smaller failures rather than one or two very large collapses.

Why better GDP forecasts have not stopped the trend

The insolvency wave is occurring even as Germany's growth outlook improves. The Ifo Institute recently raised its 2026 German GDP forecast to 1.4 percent from 0.8 percent on the back of surprisingly strong exports. Yet large insolvencies are still rising. That divergence suggests the pressures are structural and concentrated in specific sectors rather than a simple cyclical downturn, meaning a stronger macro picture does not automatically reduce corporate failure risk.

Germany's outsized share in Western Europe

Germany accounted for 97 of the 325 large insolvencies in Western Europe over the past four quarters, or about one in three. That concentration reinforces Germany's role as the region's insolvency hotspot despite being its largest economy. France, Italy and the UK recorded substantially fewer cases.

What Suppliers and Lenders Should Watch as Large Insolvencies Persist

  • Automotive suppliers: With seven large automotive insolvencies in Germany in the first half alone, treat receivables from German auto customers with revenue above €50 million as elevated counterparty risk. Do not assume a stronger export-driven GDP forecast removes default risk.
  • Lenders and trade credit insurers: Cumulative revenue of insolvent large companies rose 3 percent to €4.5 billion while average failed-company revenue fell about 7 percent to €137 million. Expect more, somewhat smaller failures to spread credit losses across counterparties.
  • Corporate treasury teams: Allianz Trade specifically flags sectors with high investment and energy costs and low pricing power as most vulnerable. Apply that screen to retail, mechanical engineering and service counterparties before extending 2026 credit lines.
  • Business planners: Allianz Trade expects no sustained easing in the second half of 2026. Plan for an elevated German large-insolvency rate rather than a quick cyclical improvement.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskHighLarge insolvencies rose 10 percent in H1 2026 to 33, and 2025's 94 was the highest since records began in 2015. Cumulative revenue of failed large companies reached €4.5 billion, signalling direct counterparty and supply-chain losses.
Competitive RiskHighAutomotive recorded seven large insolvencies, followed by retail with five, mechanical engineering with four and services with four. Allianz Trade identifies high investment and energy costs and low pricing power as ongoing vulnerabilities, so weaker players may continue to lose share or fail.
Regulatory RiskLowThe story identifies no new regulatory or policy action. The insolvency data may eventually feed policy debate, but no specific measures are mentioned.
Reputation RiskMediumGermany accounts for about 30 percent of large insolvencies in Western Europe and roughly every third case in the region, which could weigh on perceptions of German industrial resilience.
Technology DisruptionLowThe study attributes pressure to investment and energy costs and weak pricing power, not technological change. No technology-specific driver is identified in the source.
Commercial OpportunityMediumCredit insurers such as Allianz Trade, restructuring advisers and better-capitalised competitors may see higher demand or market share as weaker companies fail, though no named beneficiary is identified.