Ex-DOGE Staffers Join Polymarket and Novig as Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Heat

Mendelson and Mishory: From DOGE to Prediction Market Powerhouses

Two former affiliates of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have landed senior positions at leading prediction market firms, just as the industry faces mounting regulatory scrutiny. Sam Mendelson, who served as an adviser to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins during his DOGE tenure at the General Services Administration, has joined Polymarket. The move places him inside a company currently under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Elie Mishory, another DOGE veteran who previously helped craft the CFTC’s framework for prediction markets and later directed DOGE’s efforts at the SEC alongside Mendelson, became chief regulatory and legal affairs officer at Novig in June. The sports-focused prediction market’s CEO, Jacob Fortinsky, hailed Mishory as “at the center of the most consequential regulatory developments in prediction markets.” Mishory himself describes the move as a “natural dovetail” from his mission at the SEC.

The hires come at a politically charged moment. As prediction markets have exploded in popularity, state regulators and federal lawmakers are calling for stricter guardrails, arguing the platforms facilitate corruption and violate gambling laws. Meanwhile, the Trump family maintains close ties to the industry: Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and Truth Social has a marketing deal with Crypto.com’s prediction market offering.

Mendelson’s background includes venture capital experience at Accel, while Mishory emphasizes that his DOGE work focused on streamlining operations—not staff cuts—and that he sought input from frontline experts, a philosophy he likens to the way prediction markets reward accurate forecasting.

Regulatory Experience as a Strategic Asset for Polymarket and Novig

The DOGE-to-Prediction Market Pipeline

Mendelson and Mishory’s rapid transitions from government efficiency roles to commercial prediction market firms illustrate a well-worn path where former regulators leverage their insider knowledge for private-sector advantage. Mishory’s arrival at Novig, in particular, gives the startup a direct line to the regulatory playbook he helped write at the CFTC and later refined at the SEC. For Polymarket, Mendelson’s appointment could be viewed as a defensive move, strengthening its ability to navigate the CFTC investigation while its public stance remains silent.

Regulatory Expertise or Regulatory Capture?

The hires raise delicate questions about the revolving door between oversight agencies and the industries they monitor. Mishory’s claim that his DOGE mission was to empower frontline experts echoes a broader industry narrative that prediction markets “democratize” knowledge. But critics will see the moves as an attempt to pre-empt tougher rules by embedding former government insiders who understand—and can potentially influence—the enforcement mindset. The fact that Mendelson served as an adviser to the SEC chair during a period when the agency lost 18% of its staff through buyouts adds a layer of institutional thinning that benefits the industry’s push for lighter oversight.

Political Tailwinds and the Trump Factor

The hires cannot be separated from the broader political alignment between the prediction market sector and the Trump Administration. With Donald Trump Jr. actively advising Polymarket and Kalshi, and the Trump family’s Truth Social platform collaborating with a prediction market service, the industry enjoys unusual political access. This environment may help shield firms from aggressive federal enforcement, even as state-level gambling laws pose a separate challenge. The DOGE alumni, having worked inside an administration-aligned efficiency effort, fit neatly into this ecosystem.

What the Hires Mean for the Prediction Market Industry

• Polymarket’s CFTC defense gets a seasoned hand. Mendelson’s SEC advisory experience, combined with his Washington network, can inform the company’s legal strategy and messaging as it faces the CFTC investigation.
• Novig signals early regulatory engagement. By hiring Mishory, the sports-focused platform is embedding high-level regulatory expertise before federal or state rules tighten, potentially gaining a first-mover advantage in compliance.
• Talent pipeline from thinned agencies. Staff reductions at the SEC and broader DOGE-driven changes are creating a pool of former regulators who may view prediction markets as a high-growth receptacle for their skills, intensifying the industry’s regulatory brain trust.
• Political ties may blunt state-level challenges. With Trump Jr. advising key firms and Truth Social’s marketing collaboration, the industry’s alignment with the administration could slow or weaken state gambling-law enforcement, though the long-term durability of such political cover remains uncertain.