Managers Overtake Non-Managers in Sick Leave Duration
France’s managerial class – the cadres – have historically spent fewer days on sick leave than other employees. That flipped in 2025, according to the AXA France Datascope 2026 report. For the first time, the average sick leave duration for managers exceeded that of non-managers, with the cadre absence rate jumping 8% year-on-year compared to a 4% rise for other staff.
The study, cited by Les Echos, shows a broader European trend: long-term absences have climbed from 1.6% of all sick leave in 2022 to 2.1% in 2025, while short-term leave remains frequent. Other countries are grappling with similar pressures – Spain saw average sick leave surge to 5 weeks per worker in 2025, Germany recorded a sharp increase, and France hit 4.1 weeks per person. Only Italy and the UK, whose compensation systems are less generous, saw declines.
Meanwhile, the French government is actively exploring ways to trim the mounting bill. Proposals include taxing daily sickness benefits or capping them as early as next autumn, moves that could shift a portion of the financial burden onto employers and employees.
What’s Behind the Shift – Psychological Strain, Demographics and Policy Pressures
Psychological Disorders Drive Long Absences
Yves Hérault, data director at AXA Santé et collectives, told Les Echos that psychological disorders are the primary trigger behind the increase in long-term sick leave. This factor appears to be hitting cadres particularly hard, possibly reflecting growing job strain, performance pressure, or the blurring of work-life boundaries in management roles.
Ageing Workforce and Retirement Reforms
The study notes a sharp rise in sick leave among workers under 30 (+10% in 2025 on both short and long durations), often linked to epidemic peaks. But the bigger structural driver is the gradual increase in the retirement age. An OECD economist explained that older workers are more likely to take sick leave, and as reforms keep more of them in the workforce longer, absence rates naturally climb. This demographic shift implies that even without a deterioration in workplace health, companies will face higher leave volumes as their workforce ages.
Policy Signals and Moral Hazard
The contrast between countries with generous sick pay systems and those with leaner ones (Italy and the UK) suggests that the generosity of benefits influences absence levels. While the data does not prove causation, the divergence is fuelling the French government’s cost-cutting agenda. If it moves to cap or tax sickness benefits, employers could see the state transfer a larger share of the financial exposure directly to them or their workforces, potentially changing how absence is managed.
Insurer Perspective
AXA’s Datascope is more than a public health barometer – it shapes how the insurer prices and designs group health and collective policies. The clear differentiation between cadre and non-cadre absence patterns, and the rise of psychological and younger-worker claims, will influence underwriting, product features and prevention services. Other insurers and corporate clients should expect similar adjustments as the data filters through the market.
What Employers and Insurers Should Watch
The AXA findings and the government’s cost-cutting signals point to concrete actions for corporate decision-makers:
- Review statutory sick pay exposure. French firms should model the impact of capped or taxed daily benefits on their compensation structures. A shift in the state’s share will directly affect employer-funded top-up policies and could raise labour costs for cadre-heavy organisations.
- Strengthen mental health support. With AXA’s data director explicitly identifying psychological disorders as the main driver of long absences, companies have a clear incentive to invest in counselling services, line-manager training and workload management – especially for cadres, whose absence jump suggests rising strain.
- Plan for an older workforce. The OECD’s observation that age increases sick leave probability means that as retirement reforms take hold, employers should anticipate more age-related conditions. Adapting workplace ergonomics and offering preventive health programmes can mitigate this trend.
- Use absence analytics. Insurers and large employers can segment their absence data by employee category and age to detect early warnings, much like AXA does. This can inform targeted interventions before long-term claims spiral.
Risk & Opportunity Assessment
| Commercial Risk | Medium | Rising cadre absence rates directly increase employer costs through lost productivity and higher insurance premiums, especially if long-term leave trends persist. |
| Competitive Risk | Low | No immediate competitive disadvantage emerges from the data alone, but industries with a high concentration of cadres may face steeper absenteeism and talent retention challenges. |
| Regulatory Risk | High | The French government is actively considering taxing or capping sickness benefits; such reforms could shift financial liability to employers or reduce employees’ income protection, altering the social contract. |
| Reputation Risk | Low | Absenteeism is not directly linked to any single company’s reputation, though poor management of a visibly rising cadre absence rate could affect employer branding. |
| Technology Disruption | Low | No technology angle is present; the drivers are psychological, demographic and policy-related. |
| Commercial Opportunity | Medium | Insurers like AXA can use granular absence data to create differentiated group health products, absence management services and preventive programmes, capturing value from the trend. |
Comments 0