Chile’s June Commerce Data Signals Economic Rebound, Santander Reports

Chile's Economic Activity Shows Tentative Rebound in June

An analysis by Santander, based on sector indices derived from electronic invoices and sales receipts, points to a recovery in Chile's economic activity in June. The bank estimates that the Imacec – the monthly proxy for GDP – grew 2.5% compared to the same month last year, after five consecutive months of contraction this year.

The picture is nuanced. A retail and services index (IVDCM) rose 2.3% year-on-year in June, sharply below the 6.0% recorded in May. However, excluding fuel station sales – heavily influenced by fluctuating gasoline prices – June’s increase was just 0.8%, compared with May’s 2.2%. Separately, an index constructed from electronic invoices surged 9.6% year-on-year in June, up from 4.9% in May. Commerce rose 12.3%, business services 11.5%, and manufacturing 9.8%.

Santander cautions that these invoice figures are nominal, meaning a portion of the jump may reflect higher prices rather than stronger real activity. The bank’s base-case scenario has total and non-mining Imacec both growing around 2.5% annually in June, which would prevent a second consecutive quarterly GDP contraction.

Despite the mid-year uptick, Santander revised down its 2026 full-year growth forecast from around 1.5% to closer to 1%. The downgrade reflects the weak first half of the year, the economic disruption from severe storms, and a renewed increase in international fuel prices. An additional calendar effect – June had one more business day than June 2025, with an extra Tuesday and one fewer Sunday – likely added about 1.6 percentage points to commerce activity and similarly boosted manufacturing, given factory closures on weekends and holidays.

Behind the Imacec Rebound: What Santander's Analysis Reveals

The Calendar Boost: One Extra Working Day Matters

June’s activity numbers cannot be assessed without accounting for the extra working day. Santander estimates the shift added roughly 1.6 percentage points to commerce alone. While this is a standard seasonal adjustment, it means that a noticeable portion of the headline rebound is mechanical rather than reflective of a fundamental demand recovery. For manufacturing, weekend shutdowns mean the impact is similarly large, making month-on-month comparisons tricky.

Nominal Invoice Data and the Price Effect Caveat

The eye-catching 9.6% surge in electronical-invoice based sales is a nominal figure. With Chilean inflation still present in services and some goods, it is impossible to dismiss the possibility that higher prices, not higher volumes, account for much of the jump. Santander itself warns of this distortion, meaning the real recovery could be substantially weaker than the headline suggests. Businesses and analysts will need to scrutinize inflation-adjusted retail and wholesale data once released.

Sector Signals: Commerce Surges but Fuel Sales Mask Underlying Trends

The stark difference between the broad IVDCM index and the ex-fuel version – 2.3% versus 0.8% – highlights the outsized role of volatile fuel station sales. May’s 6.0% reading was partly inflated by gasoline price movements, and June’s pullback is partly normalization. This volatility makes it difficult to gauge consumer spending momentum. The solid performance in business services and manufacturing, if sustained in real terms, would be a more reliable sign of underlying activity.

Santander’s Downward Revision: Why 2026 Growth is Now Near 1%

Even a June rebound could not offset the accumulated weakness of the first half. Severe storms in recent months damaged infrastructure and disrupted logistics, while renewed international fuel price increases squeezed both businesses and households. Santander’s revised forecast of around 1% GDP growth for 2026 – down from 1.5% – implies that the economy will need a much stronger second half to meet earlier expectations. This downgrade also chimes with a central bank that is likely to keep interest rates on hold, waiting for clearer evidence of a durable recovery before easing monetary policy.

What This Early Signal Means for Chilean Businesses and Policymakers

• Businesses dependent on domestic demand should examine real, inflation-adjusted sales figures for June rather than relying on nominal invoice data, which may overstate the recovery.
• Retailers and manufacturers should treat the calendar-driven boost cautiously; if the extra working day effect is stripped out, underlying momentum appears modest.
• The next Imacec report for July, due in early September, will be the first real test of whether June’s uptick marks a turning point or a one-month blip.
• With Santander’s full-year growth forecast now near 1%, firms planning investment, hiring or inventory builds should base their budgets on a subdued macro environment for the rest of 2026.
• The Central Bank of Chile’s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for early August. A sustained rebound could reduce the urgency for rate cuts, while any relapse would increase pressure for monetary easing later in the year.