Okonjo-Iweala: Africa Must Act Now as Global Trade Reaches Record $34.7 Trillion

WTO Chief: Africa Stands at a Critical Juncture as Global Trade Hits $34.7tn

Global trade defied mounting geopolitical tensions in 2025, reaching a record $34.65 trillion – a 7% year-on-year increase – according to World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Speaking at the Africa Emerging Markets Forum in Abuja, she warned that Africa must move swiftly to capitalise on a once-in-a-generation restructuring of global supply chains, or risk being left behind. Merchandise trade volumes rose 4.6%, while services trade grew 5.3%, driven largely by demand for AI-related products and digitally delivered services.

Okonjo-Iweala described the current phase not as an end to globalisation but as a transition from cooperative to competitive interdependence. She pointed out that 72% of global merchandise trade still moves under WTO Most Favoured Nation terms, with another 16% flowing through bilateral and regional agreements built on the same rules. The system, she stressed, remains the backbone of global commerce, even as geopolitical competition reshapes supply lines.

For Africa, the reshaping of supply chains presents an unprecedented opportunity. The continent holds roughly 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves – a strategic asset for industries tied to the energy transition. But Okonjo-Iweala cautioned that exporting raw materials alone would repeat historical mistakes that generated little industrial development or employment. She urged governments to prioritise regional value chains, invest in processing, and coordinate policies to negotiate from collective strength. Early examples include Morocco’s emergence as a supplier of electric vehicle components and growing investment in Zambia, Angola and Nigeria.

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reinforced the urgency, arguing that Africa’s ability to benefit from the shifting order will depend on building credibility and attracting long-term capital. He called for deeper implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), faster cross-border payments, and domestic resource mobilisation – including pension funds, insurance assets and diaspora capital – to reduce reliance on fickle foreign flows. Both leaders stressed that reforms in Nigeria, including exchange rate unification and tighter monetary policy, must now translate into jobs and higher living standards for the continent’s youth.

Supply Chain Restructuring and Africa's Mineral Advantage – What It Means

The Supply Chain Shift and Africa's Mineral Wealth

Okonjo-Iweala’s warning is rooted in a concrete reality: multinational companies are actively searching for alternative production hubs to reduce over-concentration in a handful of economies. Africa’s 30% share of global critical minerals gives it a powerful bargaining chip, but history shows that raw commodity exports do not create broad-based prosperity. The gap between potential and payoff will be closed only by local processing, which requires reliable energy, logistics and investment-friendly policies. The example of Morocco – already a parts supplier for electric vehicles – illustrates that even modest steps toward higher-value manufacturing can reposition an economy inside global supply chains.

The Credibility Factor: From Rule-Taker to Rule-Setter

Cardoso’s emphasis on institutional credibility marks a shift in how African economies are likely to be judged by investors in the new era. With capital flows becoming more selective, he argued that policy consistency is “a national economic asset.” The implication is clear: African countries cannot simply rely on resource endowment or cheap labour; they must demonstrate transparency, predictable rules and sustained reform. That message was not theoretical – Nigeria’s own foreign exchange reforms and monetary tightening were held up as early, incomplete steps that still need to deliver tangible benefits to ordinary citizens if they are to build lasting trust.

Why Domestic Resource Mobilisation Matters Now

Cardoso’s call to harness pension funds, insurance assets and diaspora savings goes beyond the usual development talking point. It is a direct response to the end of an era of abundant global liquidity chasing risk. If governments can create credible investment vehicles and improve capital market infrastructure, they can fund infrastructure and industrialisation from within, lessening exposure to volatile international sentiment. The push to operationalise the AfCFTA – particularly by harmonising customs and building seamless cross-border payment systems – would expand the size of the captive market, making domestic capital deployment more attractive. Without these foundations, even the most compelling global supply chain opportunity will struggle to materialise on the continent.

How Africa Can Seize the Supply Chain Opportunity

• Shift from raw material exports to local processing. With 30% of global critical minerals, African governments should design industrial strategies that capture value-added steps, learning from Morocco’s EV component manufacturing rather than relying on ore exports alone.
• Accelerate AfCFTA implementation in high-impact areas. Cardoso identified practical barriers – slow cross-border payments, unharmonised customs – as immediate bottlenecks. Fast-tracking a digital payments corridor and mutual recognition of customs procedures could boost intra-African trade volumes quickly.
• Build policy credibility as an investment asset. Central bank independence, transparent exchange rate regimes and consistent fiscal discipline matter more than ever. Nigeria’s recent reforms, while fragile, serve as a template: locking in these changes through legislation or institutional safeguards would signal long-term stability to selective global capital.
• Mobilise domestic long-term capital to reduce foreign dependency. Governments and regulators should design frameworks that allow pension funds, insurance companies and diaspora savings to flow into infrastructure and industrial projects – creating a buffer against flighty foreign portfolio flows while financing the supply chain upgrades that foreign manufacturers look for.
• Invest in AI-readiness alongside industrial policy. Cardoso urged Africa to move beyond consuming technology to creating it. For the supply chain opportunity to stick, reliable electricity, affordable connectivity and scaled digital skills programmes are not optional extras – they determine whether Africa can plug into the digitally delivered services boom that drove 5.3% growth in services trade.