Russia Imports Gasoline from India and Belarus as Drone Strikes Cripple 40% of Refining Capacity

Drone Campaign Triggers Russia’s Unprecedented Gasoline Import Spree

Ukrainian drone strikes have severely damaged Russia’s major refineries, slashing processing capacity by an estimated 40% and creating acute gasoline shortages across the country. With domestic production unable to meet demand, Moscow has been forced to import fuel from unexpected sources—India and Belarus—to keep cars and trucks running.

A tanker carrying 42,000 tonnes of gasoline departed India’s Vadinar refinery, owned by Nayara Energy (in which Rosneft holds a 49% stake), and is expected to reach a northern Russian terminal this week. According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, this is the largest single gasoline shipment to Russia since the crisis began, and follows a first cargo loaded on June 18 on the vessel Agni.

Regions have already imposed per-person caps on gasoline purchases, and drivers in some cities have reported queuing for hours or even days. The Financial Times estimates that roughly 50 million Russians are facing the fallout. In July, at least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline—equivalent to about 60% of the country’s daily consumption—had already been shipped from India, although Nayara Energy officially denies selling to Russia and insists its priority is India’s domestic market.

Meanwhile, Belarus has dramatically stepped up its role: it delivered 184,000 tonnes of gasoline to Russia in June, triple the volume of May and a staggering 184 times higher than in June of last year. The imports are a stop-gap measure, but they underscore the strain on Russia’s own refining infrastructure as the war in Ukraine increasingly boomerangs onto its civilian economy.

The Circular Oil Trade, Supplier Shifts, and Sanctions Loopholes

The Circular Oil Trade: Russian Crude, Indian Refineries, Returned as Gasoline

Kpler data shows that over 90% of the crude processed at the Vadinar refinery this year originated in Russia. In effect, Russia is now importing gasoline made from its own oil. This circular flow—crude shipped to India, refined, and sent back as a finished product—highlights an uncomfortable loophole in the international sanctions regime. While India is not bound by Western sanctions, the transaction raises questions about whether refined products made from Russian crude should fall under tighter export controls. Nayara’s public denial of sales to Russia, set against tanker tracking data, adds a layer of reputational risk for the company and its major shareholder Rosneft.

Belarus as a Buffer: A Rapid Rise in Fuel Supplies

Belarus’ sudden emergence as a major gasoline exporter to Russia—with volumes up 184 times year-on-year—reflects its ability to refine Russian crude at two large plants (Mozyr and Naftan) and fill the gap left by damaged Russian facilities. This arrangement keeps fuel flowing within the Moscow-led political bloc, but it also deepens Russia’s reliance on a neighbour that has traditionally been a net recipient of Russian energy subsidies. The dramatic increase suggests that Belarus’ refining capacity was significantly underutilised before the crisis, and it may continue to serve as a vital pressure valve as long as Russian refineries remain impaired.

Consumer Strain and the Domestic Political Impact

For ordinary Russians, the shortages are highly visible: rationing, long queues, and a sense of vulnerability. The daily import volume of 60,000 tonnes covers little more than half of Russia’s typical consumption, meaning the deficit persists. With the war showing no signs of ending, the persistence of fuel shortages could erode public morale and present a political headache for the Kremlin, which has long tried to insulate the population from the conflict’s economic consequences.

What This Crisis Means for Energy Markets, Policymakers, and Refiners

The Russian gasoline import wave carries practical consequences for several groups of stakeholders:

• Refiners and traders handling Russian crude: Companies like Nayara Energy face growing scrutiny. Tanker tracking data contradicts official denials, and regulators or insurance providers may demand stricter end-use declarations to avoid reputational and legal exposure.
• Russian fuel logistics planners: Securing reliable import contracts from Belarus and India will be essential. The heavy dependence on a single Indian refinery (Vadinar) and one neighbouring state creates supply-chain fragility; diversification or accelerated refinery repairs are urgent priorities.
• Global gasoline markets: Russia’s shift from net exporter to net importer could tighten supplies in Asia and the Mediterranean. Traders should watch for knock-on price effects and arbitrage windows, especially if Indian and Belarusian shipments need to be re-routed due to capacity or political constraints.
• Sanctions policymakers: The circular crude-to-gasoline trade underscores a weakness in the current price-cap architecture. Officials in the G7 and EU may consider extending origin-based restrictions to refined products or requiring certification that finished fuels do not reach the Russian market.
• Russian consumers and businesses: Until refinery repairs are completed, rationing and elevated prices are likely to persist. Those dependent on private transport should factor in continued supply uncertainty and plan logistics accordingly.