Munich Re: Global Natural Disaster Losses Hit $112bn in First Half of 2026

Munich Re’s H1 2026 Loss Tally: Where the Damage Landed

Global economic losses from natural disasters reached $112 billion in the first half of 2026, down from $131 billion in the same period last year, according to a report by reinsurance giant Munich Re. The decline masked a sharp reduction in insured losses, which fell to $44 billion from $80 billion a year earlier, leaving roughly 60% of the damage borne by governments, businesses and households without cover.

The single most destructive event was a double earthquake that struck Venezuela on 24 June. Munich Re estimated its total economic cost at around $30 billion, yet only a tiny fraction—less than $1 billion—was insured. In contrast, hurricane damage in the United States produced another $30 billion in total losses, with a far higher $22 billion covered by insurance. Natural catastrophes across Europe generated $22 billion in economic losses, $7 billion of which was insured.

Chief climatologist Tobias Grimm described the outlook for the rest of the year as a “dangerous combination” of a developing Super El Niño and continued global warming, warning that consequences would be “clearly felt in the second half.” Munich Re did not provide a specific loss forecast for the full year; in 2025 it estimated annual economic losses at $224 billion.

Why Insured Losses Fell So Sharply While the Climate Threat Mounts

The Venezuela Earthquake and the Global Protection Gap

The $112bn headline figure masks a dramatic geographic shift in where disasters struck compared with the first half of 2025. The Venezuelan earthquake, responsible for more than a quarter of all economic losses, took place in a region where insurance penetration is extremely low. As a result, the proportion of total losses that were insured dropped to 39% this year from 61% last year. The protection gap—the difference between economic and insured losses—remains the industry’s most persistent structural challenge, and it widened markedly this half.

US Hurricanes: The Value of a Mature Market

The United States once again demonstrated a sharply different dynamic. Of the $30bn in hurricane-related economic damage, insurers absorbed $22bn—a coverage rate of 73%. This gap between the US and emerging economies explains why Munich Re’s insured loss figure fell more steeply than its economic loss figure: the events simply occurred in less-insured places. For reinsurers, the geography of loss matters as much as the headline number, because it determines which layers of capital are hit.

The El Niño Factor and Second-Half Outlook

Munich Re’s warning about a “Super El Niño” compounding background warming is not boilerplate. El Niño events are historically associated with increased drought in some regions and heavy rainfall and flooding in others, often affecting agricultural supply chains and infrastructure. If the second half of 2026 follows that pattern, global insured losses could bounce back sharply, especially if storms track toward heavily insured zones in North America or Europe. The absence of a full-year forecast from Munich Re may itself signal caution about how this climatic combination will play out.

What the Widening Protection Gap Means for Insurers and Governments

• Reinsurers and primary carriers should stress-test their catastrophe models against Super El Niño scenarios that combine extreme US hurricane activity with simultaneous floods in Asia—a pattern that strains retrocession capacity.
• Governments in underinsured regions—mirroring Venezuela’s experience—are likely to face fiscal pressure after uninsured disasters; parametric insurance pools and sovereign risk transfer programmes will be back on the policy agenda.
• Corporate risk managers with supply chains exposed to Latin America or Southern Europe should review contingent business interruption coverage, given that a $30bn earthquake generated almost no insurance-funded recovery.
• The European loss total of $22bn, only a third of which was insured, is a reminder that even developed economies contain blind spots—particularly for flood—that mid-year renewals may try to price in.