Ibex 35 Hits Record High as Geopolitical Thaw Sends Oil Below $90

A Geopolitical Breakthrough Lifts Global Markets

Global markets surged on the final trading day of July after Donald Trump announced an agreement for the disarmament of Hamas, a breakthrough that investors hope will de-escalate conflict in the Middle East and open the door to renewed diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran. The news sent crude oil tumbling: Brent, which had briefly topped $100 a barrel a week earlier, fell more than 2% to settle near $87, pulling back sharply from the geopolitical risk premium that had built up in recent weeks.

The relief on the energy front flowed directly into equities. Lower oil eases inflation expectations at a moment when central banks are mulling further rate hikes, and it simultaneously reduces input costs for transport and industrial firms. Asian markets roared higher—South Korea’s Kospi index, the most violent swing factor in the AI-driven rally earlier this year, soared 18% after a steep July slide. Japan’s Nikkei added 4%, helped also by the Bank of Japan’s steady hand.

In Europe, Spain’s Ibex 35 joined the party. The index not only breached its previous all-time high of 19,852 points but held comfortably above it as local corporate earnings rolled in. With the session’s gains, the Ibex solidifies a positive close for July, having opened the month well above the 19,471 points at which June concluded. The mix of a geopolitical off-ramp, cheaper energy and broadly firm global tech sentiment delivered the catalyst for a new benchmark.

What’s Behind the Ibex’s Record Run

Oil’s Slide: A Direct Boost for Travel and Transport

The drop in Brent to $87 directly improves the cost structure of fuel-intensive companies. In the Spanish market, that means airline group IAG and travel technology firm Amadeus stand to benefit disproportionately. Both are significant Ibex constituents, and their earnings reports today were met with market approval—a verdict likely sweetened by the prospect of sustained lower jet fuel prices if the Middle East calm holds. The de-escalation narrative also reduces the risk of supply disruptions that could have pushed crude back above $100, a scenario that had begun to haunt second-half earnings forecasts.

Tech Earnings Splinter: Amazon vs. Apple

Big Tech’s quarterly numbers continued to send mixed signals. Ahead of the U.S. open, Amazon futures jumped as much as 10%, while Apple futures slumped 6%. The divergence underscores that investors are now discriminating sharply among the mega-caps, rewarding those with cloud and e-commerce strength (Amazon) and penalizing those facing hardware cycle slowdowns or AI transition costs (Apple). This selectivity, following Microsoft’s rally and Meta’s punishment the previous day, is creating a two-speed market that filters through to Asian and European tech sentiment. The Kospi’s extreme bounce suggests traders are betting that memory chip makers—critical AI infrastructure—will emerge on the winning side of this sorting.

Kospi’s 18% Rebound: Echo of the AI Hype Cycle

The Korean index’s massive one-day advance comes after a punishing July, when it had lost almost a third of its value in a matter of weeks. Such volatility is a hallmark of the AI narrative that has gripped markets since last year. While the bounce may be fueled by short-covering and bargain hunting, it also reflects a belief that the fundamental demand for high-bandwidth memory and processors remains intact. However, the swing’s violent nature warrants caution: similar rebounds have faded quickly, leaving the index vulnerable if tech earnings fail to uniformly deliver on lofty expectations.

Local Earnings Fuel the Ibex’s Leap

The Ibex’s record was not solely imported from abroad. Market verdicts on results from Unicaja, Cellnex, Acciona and Puig contributed to the domestic momentum. While individual performances varied, the overall tone was constructive, particularly for travel-exposed names that are seen as leveraged both to a resilient consumer and now to sharply lower fuel costs. The combination of a favorable global macro backdrop and decent corporate disclosures gave the index a rare alignment of tailwinds, allowing it to push decisively past a psychological barrier that had held since the pre-financial-crisis era.

What Investors Should Watch After the Breakout

• Monitor the 19,852 technical floor. The Ibex 35’s close above its prior record turns that level into a support zone. A sustained break would suggest further upside momentum; a pullback below could target the June closing level of 19,471.
• Watch oil’s path for travel stock re-rating. If Brent remains near $87, IAG and Amadeus may see margin expansion that re-rates their shares. But any breakdown of the Hamas disarmament deal or renewed tension would spike crude again, erasing that tailwind.
• Approach Kospi strength with caution. The 18% bounce is statistically extreme and likely includes short-squeeze dynamics. Traders should look to the fundamentals for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix earnings rather than extrapolating today’s move. A reversal would hit European semiconductor suppliers and broader risk appetite.