US and China Led a $20 Billion Crypto Prediction Market Boom During the World Cup, Chainalysis Finds

Inside the $20 Billion World Cup Betting Boom

On-chain betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup exploded to $20 billion in total volume, with the United States and China far outpacing all other countries, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. Over 400,000 unique wallets placed bets during the tournament, and World Cup-related markets accounted for about 63% of all prediction market activity while the games were running.

The surge was already building months before kickoff. Chainalysis recorded nearly $50 million in daily volume as early as January 2026. That figure climbed to around $250 million per day once the tournament started on June 11. The final, in which Spain defeated Argentina, alone generated more than $300 million in bets. Even niche curiosity markets drew enormous sums — a single market asking whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry after his last tournament appearance attracted $49 million.

Bettors fared unusually well: 55% of participants ended the tournament in profit, and experienced prediction market users made up 79% of those winners. Chainalysis mapped the geographic flow of funds between June 11 and July 19, producing a heatmap that shows the US and China as the two clear leaders. Canada, Thailand, and the United Kingdom also ranked among the top contributors, while much of Africa showed minimal or no volume.

Why the US and China Dominated — and What the Data Reveals

The Geography of $20 Billion in Crypto Bets

The heavy concentration in the US and China is striking. Both countries have large, tech-savvy populations and, in the case of the US, a growing appetite for prediction markets amid an uncertain regulatory environment. China, despite its broad restrictions on cryptocurrency trading, still generated massive flows — likely routed through VPNs or non-custodial wallets — which underscores the difficulty of enforcing outright bans on decentralized platforms. The data suggests that prediction markets are becoming a mainstream on-chain activity in the world’s two largest economies, even if formal legality varies.

Why Prediction Markets Took Over During the World Cup

The fact that 63% of all prediction market activity during the period was tied to the World Cup shows how sports events can concentrate a market that is normally spread across politics, entertainment, and economics. The tournament also attracted a wave of casual users, but the high profitability among experienced participants — 55% overall in profit, with veterans dominating the winner list — indicates that savvy bettors found ample opportunities against less-informed newcomers. This pattern could encourage more sophisticated traders to treat sporting events as recurring, high-volume windows for profit-taking.

The Illicit Money Undercurrent

Not all of the $20 billion was clean. Chainalysis identified about 3,700 wallets — less than 1% of all bettors — with a history of illicit transactions. The single largest source of tainted funds was Huobi/HTX, which sent at least $5.4 million to World Cup betting wallets. That exchange was sanctioned by the UK in May 2026 for allegedly helping Russia evade sanctions, and the EU followed with its own sanctions in July. Scam-linked wallets added another $2 million. While the illicit share is tiny in percentage terms, the absolute amounts are large enough to draw regulatory attention and may complicate efforts by prediction market platforms to present themselves as legitimate financial venues.

FIFA’s Clean NFT Experiment

In contrast, FIFA’s own on-chain venture — a wallet tied to FIFA Collect on the Avalanche network — attracted $24 million from NFT collectors between May 2025 and the end of the tournament. Chainalysis found negligible illicit exposure in that wallet, attributing the clean record to strict identity checks. The wallet also generated at least $6 million in secondary sales revenue for FIFA. This suggests that when a major sports organization imposes robust compliance controls, it can participate in the crypto economy without amplifying money-laundering risks, a lesson other rights holders may note.

What the World Cup Betting Data Signals for Crypto Markets

• Prediction market operators should expect heightened regulatory scrutiny around events that draw such massive cross-border flows, especially if sanctioned entities like Huobi/HTX appear in the funding pipeline. Compliance teams must monitor wallet-level sanctions exposure, not just overall volume.
• Experienced traders who profited at the expense of less-informed World Cup bettors may want to model other major sports events — January’s Australian Open or the next Champions League final — as similarly concentrated liquidity opportunities.
• Sports organizations can look to FIFA’s NFT playbook: strict KYC kept its $24 million collectibles wallet clean, proving that large-scale crypto engagement is possible without inheriting reputation-damaging illicit flows.
• Exchanges and wallet providers operating on Avalanche or other chains where sports NFTs gain traction should note the $6 million in secondary sales FIFA captured — a sign that secondary market royalties can become a meaningful revenue stream for rights holders who embed compliance from the start.