What Fund Managers Said at Expert XP 2026

Speaking at the Expert XP 2026 conference, three senior fund managers mapped out where they see the best risk-adjusted returns in Brazilian private credit over the coming year, even as high interest rates and a wobbly economy test corporate borrowers. Marcelo Urbano of XP Asset, Jean Pierre Cote Gil of Vinland Crédito and Alexandre Muller of Leto Capital agreed that the environment demands caution and selectivity — but also offers genuine opportunities for investors who can look beyond credit ratings.

Urbano pointed to a sweet spot in unrated or lower-rated companies with strong cash balances and competent management. “Sometimes a debenture from a good company in a difficult sector is better than one from a poorly managed firm in a thriving industry,” he argued. He also highlighted the flexibility and governance of FIDCs — receivables funds — as a vehicle for generating alpha through well-structured deals.

Cote Gil stressed that the macro backdrop — tight monetary policy and the electoral cycle — makes widespread credit bets risky, but the sheer growth of the private credit market means there are far more instruments to choose from. “Good-quality companies are still paying high credit spreads, and intermediate-risk names that have been beaten down can be attractive inside the right structure,” he said. Muller added that his firm is already capturing extra yield during market dislocations, citing the recent Aegea and Cosan defaults, which pushed up spreads across their sectors and allowed the fund to lock in higher returns.

The Managers’ Playbook for Private Credit in 2026

Good Companies in Bad Sectors: Urbano’s Unrated Play

Marcelo Urbano’s thesis challenges the habit of screening private credit by sector first. His team at XP Asset looks for firms with robust cash generation and proven management teams, even if the industry they operate in is under pressure. That approach stems from the observation that recovery rates in Brazilian credit restructurings are low and slow — making the quality of the issuer’s balance sheet and governance the real moat. Urbano contrasted this with FIDCs, where the underlying receivables pool and servicing structure can offset single-name weakness, giving managers room to build safer, diversified exposures.

Cote Gil’s Selectivity: High Spreads, Higher Standards

Jean Pierre Cote Gil framed the opportunity in terms of a widened premium. The 1–2 percentage point yield advantage that private credit offers over liquid instruments, he explained, compensates for three frictions: illiquidity, the market’s unfamiliarity with the issuer and the time-intensive analysis required. For Vinland, that premium justifies a deep-dive approach — including evaluating the management team of every prospective debtor during the approval process. The lesson from 40 post-Americanas defaults, he noted, is that avoiding trouble is far more important than hoping for a quick workout, because resolutions in Brazil are so protracted.

Muller’s Two-Way Hunt: Bank Migration and the Real Economy

Alexandre Muller described Leto Capital’s strategy as a dual track. First, targeting companies that already sit on bank balance sheets and are about to raise money in the capital markets — firms that have already cleared institutional credit committees. This “migration pipeline” offers a built-in quality filter. Second, reaching directly into the real economy, including a new lending platform aimed at small businesses in Brazil’s Northeast. Muller sees the private credit gap — noting that in the U.S., for every bank dollar lent to companies, four come from capital markets — as a structural tailwind that can be monetised by funds willing to do old-fashioned credit work in underserved regions and sectors.

What This Means for Your Fixed-Income Portfolio

  • Look for funds that prioritise management quality over credit ratings. Urbano’s advice — backed by the poor recovery record in Brazil — suggests that a debenture from a well-run company in a struggling sector may offer better risk-adjusted returns than a name with a higher rating but weaker governance.
  • Favour FIDC-based structures for diversification. Because receivables funds pool many underlying credits and can be structured with senior-subordinate tranches, they allow investors to access niche segments without taking concentrated single-name risk. Ask whether the fund manager has an in-house servicing team to monitor the collateral.
  • Treat the liquidity premium as a cushion, not a reason to chase yield. Cote Gil’s estimate of 100–200 basis points of extra return should be weighed against the illiquidity and the greater analysis lag. If your personal time horizon is short, institutional private-credit funds may not be the right fit.
  • Watch for market-wide dislocations as entry points. Muller’s experience with the Aegea and Cosan defaults shows that even unrelated credits in the same sector can see spreads blow out. Investors entering via funds that have committed capital ready to deploy during such episodes can pick up higher yields without taking on the defaulted paper itself.
  • Consider funds with a “bank migration” strategy. Companies shifting from bank balance sheets to capital markets have already been vetted by lenders. Funds that specialise in that transition often offer intermediate credit quality with yields that remain well above similarly rated liquid corporate bonds.