Why a 2002 Game Show Million Is Now Worth Less Than Half

A one-million-euro prize on “Wer wird Millionär?” in 2002 felt like a fortune. But a new analysis from Vanguard shows that by the end of 2025, that sum would have the purchasing power of just €391,738—a real-world decline of over 60%.

To simply keep pace with inflation, the prize would have needed to grow to €1.608 million over those 23 years. In other words, a person who won a million in 2002 but didn’t invest it would be significantly poorer in real terms by 2025, even if the nominal balance remained six figures.

The starkest contrast comes from comparing two scenarios: leaving the money in cash (earning Euribor interest) versus investing it in a broad global stock index. Cash returns barely preserved the original buying power, while a FTSE All World Index investment would have turned that single million into roughly €5.16 million after inflation.

Behind the Numbers: Cash, Inflation, and the Global Stock Market

Inflation’s Silent Erosion of Cash

When the hypothetical prize is held as cash and earns interest at the Euribor rate—the rate European banks charge each other—the balance would have reached approximately €1.654 million by the end of 2025. That sounds like a healthy return, but once inflation is stripped out, the original purchasing power was barely maintained. “Cash feels safe because its value doesn’t change visibly day-to-day,” said Chris Hofmann, Vanguard’s Head of Intermediated Wholesale. “But over decades, it can realistically do little more than break even after inflation.”

What the FTSE All World Index Did Differently

An investment in the FTSE All World Index, which captures global equity markets, would have delivered a dramatically different outcome. The same €1 million, invested at the start of 2002, would have grown to €5,158,457 in real, after-inflation terms by end-2025. That represents a fivefold increase in spending power. The gap illustrates a fundamental principle: while cash merely protects your nominal balance, a diversified stock portfolio can compound returns well above inflation over long periods, substantially raising real wealth.

What This Means for Your Own Savings

The example uses a gameshow prize, but the lesson applies to every household. Here are the specific takeaways from the Vanguard data:

  • Cash erodes over decades. Even with positive interest rates (Euribor), a cash holding from 2002 barely kept pace with inflation. Anyone saving for a goal more than ten years away risks a significant loss in real purchasing power.
  • A global stock portfolio can defend and grow buying power. The FTSE All World Index turned the original prize into over €5.1 million in real money. That’s the difference between static saving and real wealth creation.
  • Start early and stay invested. The edge came from compounding equity returns over 23 years. Regular contributions to a low-cost, globally diversified fund can replicate this effect, even without a windfall lump sum.