Hamas Agrees to Disarm in Phased Deal, Trump's 'Board of Peace' Says

A BREAKTHROUGH IN CAIRO: The Hamas Disarmament Framework

A long-elusive agreement to disarm Hamas and transform the Gaza Strip has been reached through the U.S.-led “Board of Peace,” according to President Donald Trump and multiple sources close to the talks. The deal, hammered out in Cairo, includes a binding 15-point roadmap that commits Hamas to a “full disarmament” and the demilitarization of the territory, to be carried out in carefully structured phases. Once the disarmament is complete, Israeli forces would fully withdraw, and an international stabilization force—alongside a new Palestinian police—would assume security responsibilities, paving the way for a fresh Palestinian administration to govern Gaza.

The diplomatic breakthrough emerged against a backdrop of violent escalation across the Middle East. On the same day, Iran's military claimed it had struck a U.S. airbase in Kuwait with drones, while the U.S. Central Command announced it had completed a “heavy” wave of retaliatory strikes against Iranian military command centers, missile and drone sites. Jordan confirmed it intercepted five Iranian rockets. The tit-for-tat attacks sent Brent crude oil prices soaring nearly 8% to above $90 per barrel before settling slightly lower. The U.S. also imposed fresh sanctions on eight tankers and ten companies, six of them in China, aimed at squeezing Iranian revenues.

Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is building a multinational naval coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi rebel attacks. The kingdom will lead the force and host its headquarters; 14 nations, including Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt, have already signaled support. The urgency of the mission was highlighted when Houthi rebels, with Iraqi militia support and Iranian guidance, launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities from Iraqi territory, triggering joint U.S.-Saudi airstrikes inside Iraq. The Iraqi Prime Minister abruptly canceled a planned visit to Riyadh in protest.

BEYOND THE CEASEFIRE: Regional Power Shifts and Escalation Risks

The Hamas Concession: A Political Coup or a Tactical Pause?

The disarmament agreement is a historic shift for Hamas, which has long based its legitimacy on armed resistance. The group is reportedly willing to place its weapons under the supervision of a Palestinian transitional administration and international mediators, but explicitly not under Israeli control. In return, it demands a full Israeli withdrawal and an end to targeted killings. The deal’s viability hinges on whether hardliners inside Hamas and factions such as Islamic Jihad accept the surrender of military capability. While Israeli media speak of progress, official confirmation from Jerusalem is still pending as mediators work through final details. The structure—phased disarmament paired with security guarantees—is designed to build trust incrementally, but any flare-up could collapse the process.

Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Moves Beyond Yemen

The attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory mark a significant escalation in the operational integration of Iran’s allied militias. According to Chatham House analyst Farea al-Muslimi, Houthi rebels and Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah have maintained a joint operations center since 2024, allowing them to coordinate strikes far beyond their traditional theaters. By launching from Iraq, the Houthis circumvented Saudi air defenses in Yemen and struck deep into the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure. This partnership turns Iraq into a launchpad for wider regional attacks, complicating U.S. and Saudi responses and raising the stakes for Baghdad, which now risks being pulled deeper into the conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Gambit

The coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea is a direct response to the Houthis’ stranglehold on one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Behind the scenes, the Houthis are exploring a plan to levy transit fees on vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandab strait, with Iranian advisors helping them set up a collection authority. If implemented, this would amount to a new source of revenue for the group and a direct economic weapon against global trade. For Saudi Arabia, safeguarding the Red Sea is not only a security imperative but also a means to project leadership in a region where U.S. attention is divided. The participation of 43 countries, including EU members, lends the force credibility but also exposes it to a wider conflict if Houthi attacks continue.

Oil Markets and the Straits Threat

The sharp jump in Brent crude reflects fears of a prolonged disruption to energy supply chains. Any closure or interference at Bab al-Mandab would force tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and significant costs to delivery times. With Brent already above $90, the insurance market is rapidly repricing war risk for vessels in the Middle East Gulf and the Red Sea. The U.S. sanctions on tankers further strain a market already grappling with limited spare capacity. While the Hamas disarmament deal could eventually ease regional tensions, in the short term the simultaneous escalation of U.S.-Iran exchanges, Houthi advances and Saudi-led coalition dynamics are keeping a floor under oil prices.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY

The unfolding events present concrete operational and strategic challenges for businesses and governments. Based on the developments in this report, the following immediate steps are warranted:

• Shipping and logistics operators should activate Red Sea contingency plans now. The 43-nation naval coalition may take weeks to become fully operational, leaving vessels exposed to Houthi attacks and potential transit fees at Bab al-Mandab. Companies should assess a temporary rerouting of cargo via the Cape of Good Hope and review force majeure clauses in contracts with Middle Eastern counterparties.
• Energy importers in Europe and Asia must secure alternative supply arrangements. With Brent crude at $90 and volatile, a further disruption at the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab could spike prices sharply. Hedging with options for Q4 delivery and diversifying supplies—including from West Africa or the Americas—are prudent near-term moves, especially given the fresh U.S. sanctions on eight tankers.
• Corporations with staff or assets in Iraq, Jordan and the Arabian Peninsula should update security protocols. The Iraqi Prime Minister’s last-minute cancellation of a Riyadh visit and militia threats against U.S. and Saudi interests signal a deteriorating diplomatic and security environment. Travel advisories must reflect the risk of retaliatory attacks beyond military targets, including commercial infrastructure.
• Diplomatic and business planners should monitor the Hamas disarmament timeline closely. If the 15-point roadmap holds, expect Israel’s phased withdrawal to begin within weeks, opening space for a new Palestinian administration and reconstruction tenders. However, any breakdown could reignite violence and drag neighboring states into proxy confrontations. Entities with exposure to Israeli or Palestinian markets should prepare for both scenarios.