Executives: Falling Household Formation, Migration Are Reshaping US Housing Demand

Why Demographics Are Redrawing the US Housing Map

Executives from three of the largest US housing firms — PulteGroup, Cortland and Invitation Homes — used the Walker & Dunlop summer webcast to argue that demographic change, not interest rates alone, is now setting the direction of housing demand. On a panel hosted by Walker & Dunlop executive vice president Ivy Zelman, the group pointed to falling fertility, delayed household formation and the lasting shift to remote work as forces that will determine where people live, what they buy and whether they rent.

The numbers cited were stark: the US fertility rate hit a record low in 2024, roughly one-third of adults under 35 still live with their parents, only 47% of households consist of married couples, and about four times as many people work from home as before 2020. For housing executives, that translates into fewer new households — the basic unit of demand — and a sector splitting into distinct regional winners and losers.

PulteGroup CEO Ryan Marshall said the post-pandemic boom towns are cooling while steadier, more affordable markets are absorbing demand. He named Denver, Austin and Phoenix as places seeing a 'fallout,' and Columbus, Minneapolis and Indianapolis as markets where jobs, affordability and limited competition are supporting outperformance. Cortland founder Steven DeFrancis added that even healthy coastal markets rely on immigration to hold population, and Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner said he is more bullish on the Southeast than the Southwest.

The clearest growth segment, the panel agreed, is housing for older adults: by the end of 2030, 20% of the US population will be 65 or older. Pulte already generates about a third of its business through its Del Webb active-adult brand and is launching Explore by Del Webb for Generation X. On artificial intelligence, the executives described back-office efficiency gains rather than business-model change, with loan origination flagged as the biggest near-term opportunity.

Where Pulte, Cortland and Invitation Homes See the Market Turning

PulteGroup: The Post-Boom Correction Is Already Here

Marshall's comments amount to a post-pandemic market rotation. The cities that led the 2020–2022 migration boom — Denver, Austin, Phoenix — saw outsized price growth and a wave of new supply, and are now giving some of it back. His remedy is calibrated: follow where jobs are growing, not where headlines were loudest. That fits Pulte's position as the third-largest US homebuilder; selling affordable homes in lower-competition markets protects volume even as boom-era margins normalize, though it likely also means thinner pricing power than the last cycle offered.

Cortland: Multifamily's Oversupply Meets the Immigration Math

DeFrancis delivered the most concrete short-term call of the panel: about half of Cortland's markets are flat but not falling, the rest are close to turning, and he expects all of them to improve by next spring, with rent growth returning to a more normal level. His stated reason — that developers are struggling to make deals pencil — suggests new supply is itself the clearing mechanism: less construction, plus eventual household-formation catch-up, is what produces the spring turn. His immigration warning is the structural caveat. Several markets that look strong on the surface are net-negative on domestic migration and depend on immigration for population growth, which makes long-term planning hostage to policy that housing executives do not control.

Invitation Homes: A Southeast Lean Built on a GFC-Era Portfolio

Tanner's preference for the Southeast follows the logic of where his company started. Invitation Homes built large concentrations of homes in Florida and California out of post-crisis foreclosure purchases and is now balancing growth against portfolio concentration. The 'red states are easier to do business in' remark is a political assertion rather than a measured analysis — the sharper business takeaway is the direction: single-family rental demand is following sunbelt migration, and the Southeast holds the affordability edge in that equation.

The Age Wave Is the One Unambiguous Growth Market

The panel's strongest agreement was on active-adult housing. With 20% of the population projected to be 65 or older by the end of 2030, Pulte's Del Webb brand — roughly a third of its business — is well positioned, and Explore by Del Webb extends the formula to Generation X before the boomer cohort fades. Marshall's own caveat, that baby boomers are not a growing demographic, is exactly why the Gen X extension matters. Tanner noted private capital will likely fund much of this expansion, a signal for investors in build-to-rent and age-restricted product.

AI So Far: Faster Teams, Not New Business Models

None of the three executives described AI as reshaping how they operate. DeFrancis said it has not affected staffing at Cortland; Tanner said it is making teams faster rather than reinventing the wheel; Marshall pointed to back-end efficiency and called loan origination — an essential but costly, document-heavy process — the biggest opportunity. In a market where the binding constraint is household formation rather than productivity, the realistic reading is that AI trims costs at the margin before it changes housing supply or demand.

What Housing's New Demand Map Means for Operators and Investors

For investors, operators and builders reading the panel's signals:

• Underwrite only a gradual recovery in multifamily: Cortland expects a return to 'more normal' rent growth by next spring, not an acceleration, because oversupply and high construction costs still limit pricing.
• Direct capital toward job-stable, affordable metros: Pulte is favoring Columbus, Minneapolis and Indianapolis, and Invitation Homes is leaning Southeast — the same corridors are absorbing demand while Austin, Denver and Phoenix cool.
• Factor immigration policy into long-term demand models: DeFrancis said most of his well-performing markets lose population without immigration, so policy changes shift the demographic assumptions behind new projects.
• Size the active-adult opportunity: with 20% of the population expected to be 65 or older by 2030, Pulte's Explore by Del Webb launch for Gen X is an early signal of durable demand in that segment.
• Budget AI for cost savings, not strategy shifts: the most concrete near-term opportunity named was loan origination efficiency, not a change in how homes are built, leased or priced.