London's Population Shrinks for First Time in 37 Years as Over 400,000 Leave for Other UK Regions

London Loses 132,000 Residents to Rest of UK, Erasing Natural and International Gains

London’s population shrank by 0.29%—roughly 26,700 people—in the year to mid-2025, falling to 9.12 million. It is the first time the capital has recorded a sustained annual decline since 1988, outside the pandemic disruption. The driver was not a sudden drop in births or a reversal of international migration, but a large-scale internal outflow: 420,492 Londoners moved to other parts of the UK, while only 288,531 moved into the city from elsewhere in the country.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) make clear that natural change (104,610 births against 50,399 deaths) and net international migration (a positive balance of 51,839) were not enough to offset the net internal migration loss of almost 132,000 residents. The boroughs with the largest net outflows were Newham, Brent, Redbridge, Southwark, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Hillingdon—a spread that cuts across inner and outer London.

The population shift is already visible on the ground. Schools in some London boroughs are experiencing falling pupil numbers, and the capital’s property market, where prices have been edging down for roughly nine months, could see further softening as demand weakens. The wider England and Wales picture is also cooling: overall population growth slowed to just 0.4%, the weakest rate since mid-2020, as post-pandemic migration surges fade.

Why London’s Population Is Contracting—and What It Means for Housing and Schools

The First Structural Pop Drop Since 1988

London has long relied on two engines of growth—a high birth rate and a steady stream of international arrivals—to compensate for the steady trickle of residents moving to the suburbs and beyond. For the first time in more than three decades, both engines are running but still being overtaken. The 132,000 net loss to other UK regions is not a statistical blip; it is larger than the city’s natural increase (about 54,000) and international net gain (about 52,000) combined.

Where the Outflow Hits Hardest

The borough-level data shows the migration is not limited to families seeking bigger homes in the commuter belt. Tower Hamlets and Southwark—both young, inner-city boroughs—recorded significant net outflows, suggesting that high housing costs, shifting work patterns and a search for better quality of life are pushing a broad cross-section of Londoners out. Brent and Newham, with large family populations, confirm the longer-running trend of households relocating to more affordable parts of the country.

The Ripple Effect on London’s Housing Market

London house prices have been sliding for about nine months, and this population data strengthens the case that the correction has a demand-side driver beyond higher mortgage rates. Fewer residents mean less pressure on an already strained housing stock, potentially accelerating the price declines in boroughs with the heaviest out-migration. At the same time, reduced tenant demand could soften rental growth, offering some relief to those who stay, but squeezing yields for landlords in exit-zone postcodes.

What’s Pushing Londoners Out

The ONS does not survey motives, but the direction of travel is consistent with years of commentary: the cost of housing, the draw of more space and green areas, and the normalisation of hybrid work have made leaving London a viable and attractive option for a wider range of people. The data suggest that the pandemic-era ‘race for space’ has not reversed; it has settled into a durable pattern.

What the Exodus Means for Homeowners, Landlords and Local Authorities

For landlords and property investors: The heaviest outflows are in Newham, Brent, Redbridge, Southwark, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Hillingdon. If the trend persists, rental demand in these areas may soften further, putting downward pressure on yields. Investors should stress-test portfolios in those boroughs and consider whether capital appreciation assumptions still hold given a shrinking tenant base.

For housebuilders and developers: The net outflow of nearly 132,000 people from London to other UK regions implies stronger housing demand in commuter-belt counties such as Hertfordshire, Essex, Kent and Surrey, as well as more distant cities offering lower costs. Land acquisition and project pipelines should reflect a potentially sustained shift in where households choose to live.

For local authorities in London: Falling pupil numbers in outflow boroughs will reduce school-place pressure, but also create budget challenges where funding is linked to headcount. Planning for school consolidations, rationalising underused infrastructure and adjusting local housing targets may become necessary if the exodus continues.

For homeowners and buyers: With London house prices already falling for around nine months, the population decline adds a demand-side headwind. Buyers may find more negotiating room, particularly in boroughs with high net outflows. Sellers in those areas should price realistically and expect longer transaction times if buyer interest thins.