US Weekly Export Sales: New-Crop Corn and Soybeans Jump

The latest USDA weekly export sales report delivered a clear signal: global buyers are aggressively booking next season's US corn and soybeans. Combined new-crop sales for the two commodities topped 40 million bushels in the seven days through July 23, with corn netting 41.8 million bushels and soybeans 49 million bushels. For corn, unknown destinations and Mexico were the primary drivers, while China and unknown destinations anchored soybean purchases.

The old-crop picture was more mixed. Current-marketing-year soybean sales ticked higher, but wheat fell short of year-ago levels. Beef and pork sales posted solid week-over-week gains, reflecting steady protein demand from key Asian and North American markets. The data arrive just weeks before USDA’s August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will incorporate these trends into official US export forecasts.

Physical shipments of corn and soybeans are running ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s current 2025/26 projections. However, old-crop wheat sales remain stubbornly below last year’s volume, and cumulative soybean oil shipments have collapsed, highlighting uneven performance across the commodity complex.

Behind the Numbers: What the Latest Data Says About Global Demand

Corn Dominates as Mexico and Unknown Buyers Drive Demand

New-crop corn sales of 41.8 million bushels — led by 376,300 tons to Mexico and 425,500 tons to unknown destinations — underscore the market’s confidence in US corn supply and price competitiveness. With just over a month left in the 2025/26 marketing year, cumulative corn exports stand at 3.424 billion bushels, a 23% jump from the prior year’s 2.774 billion. The strong forward bookings suggest that importers are locking in coverage early, potentially to hedge against weather or geopolitical disruptions later in the season.

Soybeans: China’s Appetite Supports New-Crop Sales but Old-Crop Pace Slows

China’s purchase of 519,000 tons of new-crop soybeans is the standout, reaffirming its role as the largest destination for US beans. Together with unknown destinations (372,000 tons), the 49-million-bushel week far outpaces old-crop sales of just 11.1 million bushels. Yet, cumulative old-crop exports sit at 1.532 billion bushels, trailing last year’s 1.875 billion by more than 340 million bushels. This gap, if it persists through the marketing year’s end on August 31, could add to US ending stocks and pressure nearby cash and futures prices.

Wheat Continues to Lag as Exports Fall Short of Last Year

Nearly two months into the 2026/27 marketing year, wheat exports total 254.3 million bushels — 27% below the 350.7 million shipped at the same point in 2025/26. Weekly sales of 10.5 million bushels were soft, pulled down by a 62,000-ton cancellation from unknown destinations. The persistent underperformance raises questions about whether later-season demand can close the gap or if USDA will need to trim its full-year export forecast in August.

Meat Complex Shows Resilience

Beef net sales jumped 61% from the prior week to 15,100 tons, with South Korea, Japan and Mexico leading. Pork sales rose 23% to 35,300 tons, driven by Mexico and China. Both sectors are benefiting from a combination of competitive US prices and sustained global protein demand, even as broader economic headwinds linger.

What Grain Traders and Farmers Should Watch Ahead of August 12 Report

  • Monitor corn export shipments. Physical movements are above the level needed to meet current USDA projections, but the pattern of cancellations by “unknown destinations” (349,900 tons this week) warrants attention. If those cancelled sales don’t reappear quickly, it could signal some demand erosion.
  • Expect corn export forecast revisions. With cumulative exports running well above last year and strong new-crop bookings, USDA’s August 12 WASDE report may raise the 2025/26 export number and set a bullish tone for 2026/27, supporting CBOT corn futures.
  • Wheat producers face headwinds. Exports at 254.3 million bushels are far off last year’s pace. Unless weekly sales accelerate, USDA is likely to lower its export outlook, which could pressure cash bids and Chicago wheat prices.
  • Soybean market to watch old-crop vs. new-crop divergence. The 49-million-bushel new-crop week signals robust forward demand, but old-crop shipments still trail last year by 343 million bushels. A larger-than-expected carryout may weigh on nearby futures, even as deferred contracts gain support from the strong new-crop bookings.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumCancellations by unknown destinations across corn, soybeans, and soybean meal introduce uncertainty about whether booked sales will materialize into actual shipments.
Competitive RiskMediumWheat and soybean old-crop exports lag significantly behind last year’s pace, potentially ceding market share to competitors like Russia (wheat) or South America (soybeans), though source data does not name competitors.
Regulatory RiskLowNo new trade policy or regulatory actions are indicated in the report; routine export data carry minimal immediate regulatory risk.
Reputation RiskLowThe data are standard government statistics; no event in the report poses an unusual reputational threat to any entity.
Technology DisruptionLowNo technology-related developments are present in this trade data.
Commercial OpportunityHighCorn exports are running 23% ahead of last year, and new-crop soybean bookings are strong, presenting a clear revenue opportunity for US producers and exporters ahead of the next WASDE report.