Global Coffee Output Reaches 10.68 Million Tonnes, Led by Brazil and Vietnam

World coffee production reached an estimated 10.68 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 marketing year, a marginal 1% increase from the previous year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The data, which measures green (unroasted) coffee beans, underscores the heavy concentration of supply: the top 10 producing nations account for 89% of the global total, leaving just 11% spread across the rest of the world.

Brazil remains the undisputed leader, producing 3.73 million tonnes—more than a third of all coffee grown globally. The country focuses primarily on Arabica beans, the world’s favourite premium variety. Vietnam ranks second with 1.92 million tonnes, specialising in high-caffeine Robusta beans. Together, the two countries supply 53% of the planet’s coffee, with Brazil alone producing twice as much as Vietnam.

The remaining top-10 slots are filled by Colombia (0.74 million tonnes), Indonesia (0.72 million), Ethiopia (0.7 million), Uganda (0.42 million), India (0.39 million), Honduras (0.32 million), Peru (0.27 million) and Mexico (0.21 million). Geographically, five of these nations lie in the Americas, three in Asia, and two in Africa—a reflection of coffee’s historical migration from its Ethiopian birthplace across the tropical belt.

Why the Two-Country Dominance Matters—and How Asia Reshaped the Coffee Map

Two Countries, Half the World’s Coffee

The sheer weight of Brazil and Vietnam in global production introduces a structural vulnerability for anyone relying on a steady supply of beans. A bad harvest in either country—whether from drought, frost, or disease—can instantly tighten global markets and trigger price spikes. The USDA figures show that the combined output of these two countries alone is nearly 5.7 million tonnes, making diversification a major challenge for commercial buyers and roasters.

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Asia’s Quiet Revolution in Coffee

The USDA data also highlights a dramatic geographic shift over the past six decades. In the 1960s, Asia contributed just 5% of global coffee output. Today that share has soared to 32%, driven largely by Vietnam’s emergence as the world’s second-largest producer—a position it has held since 1999—and by steady growth in Indonesia and India. Meanwhile, South America’s dominance has eroded, even as Brazil retains its crown. Africa, the birthplace of coffee, remains a distant third among producing regions.

Climate Change Adds a Bitter Edge

The report notes that climate change is making coffee cultivation increasingly difficult, with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events threatening yields. The USDA data points to a direct consequence: coffee bean prices are climbing year after year as supply struggles to keep pace with growing global demand. For an industry already concentrated in a handful of nations, the added pressure of climate risk is scrambling long-term planning.

What the Concentration of Coffee Production Means for Buyers and Consumers

  • For importers and roasters: With 53% of global supply dependent on just two countries, stress-testing sourcing strategies against a disruption in Brazil or Vietnam is a prudent step. Building deeper relationships with secondary producers such as Uganda, Honduras or Peru can add resilience.
  • For the broader industry: The accelerating climate threat to coffee yields strengthens the business case for investing in climate-resilient farming practices, both in the dominant origins and in emerging suppliers. The USDA data makes clear that relying on historical production patterns may become increasingly risky.
  • For consumers: The upward pressure on green bean prices is unlikely to ease soon. Households should expect the cost of their daily cup to continue rising as climate impacts and supply concentration translate into higher shelf prices.