Nigeria Aims to Triple Cashew Output to 1m Tonnes by 2036

The country’s national cashew association has unveiled a roadmap targeting 1 million tonnes of production and 50% local processing, but past failures and structural gaps loom large.

Nigeria Sets 2036 Goal of 1 Million Tonnes of Cashew

Nigeria’s National Cashew Association (NCAN) has set a target to harvest 1 million tonnes of raw cashew nuts by 2036, nearly three times the 340,000 tonnes recorded in 2025. The ambition was unveiled on 28 July alongside a national industry roadmap designed to align public and private efforts, attract investment and better organise the value chain.

The roadmap envisages boosting on-farm yields, expanding access to inputs and, critically, raising domestic processing to 50% of the harvest – from just 15% today. In February, Singapore-based commodity trader Robust International announced it would build a new cashew processing plant in Ogun State, lifting its daily capacity from 100 to 220 tonnes. Cashew is grown across 27 of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, offering a wide geographic base for output growth.

West Africa is the world’s top producing region, with Ivory Coast already surpassing 1.5 million tonnes. Nigeria, the second-largest producer in 2025, hopes the new plan will finally unlock the sector’s potential and boost agricultural export earnings alongside cocoa and sesame.

However, doubts surround the target. In 2017, NCAN announced a goal of 500,000 tonnes by 2020 – a level that was never reached. Persistent structural problems, including ageing orchards, poor access to improved varieties, pest pressure and the absence of a credible quality-control system, have repeatedly undermined earlier initiatives.

Why Past Ambitions Stumbled and What Ivory Coast Got Right

A Recurring Credibility Gap

The shortfall of the 2017 target highlights the difficulty of turning ambition into outcomes. Cashew trees in Nigeria are often decades old, more vulnerable to disease and lower-yielding than new plantings. Without a co-ordinated replanting programme and reliable supply of improved seedlings, output gains will be hard to sustain. Additionally, the lack of a national quality-inspection regime means Nigerian cashew frequently trades at a discount on international markets, eroding farmer incomes and processor margins.

Ivory Coast’s Institutional Edge

Industry analysts point to the governance models of Ivory Coast and Ghana as potential templates. Ivory Coast established the Conseil Coton Anacarde (CCA), a dedicated body that regulates, monitors and develops the cashew and cotton sectors. Ghana created a Ghana Cashew Council (GCC) alongside the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to co-ordinate the value chain and advocate for policy reform. In contrast, Nigeria still relies solely on NCAN – a single industry association that lacks the statutory muscle to enforce quality standards or drive structural change across 27 producing states.

The Processing Promise vs. Quality Discount

Robust International’s Ogun plant is a positive signal that investors see potential in Nigerian processing. Yet, with only 15% of the crop currently shelled domestically, the gap to the 50% target is immense. The quality discount that Nigerian nuts suffer makes it harder for local processors to compete with Ivorian factories that benefit from consistently graded raw material. Solving the quality puzzle is therefore as important as expanding capacity.

What the Roadmap Means for Agribusiness and Investors

Institutional reform is the real bottleneck. Nigeria’s 2036 target looks optimistic unless it follows Ivory Coast’s lead and creates a dedicated, well-funded cashew council. Without statutory authority, NCAN alone cannot enforce quality standards or co-ordinate the dozens of state-level programmes needed.
Investors should watch for follow-through on quality control. The current discount on Nigerian cashew – caused by absent grading systems – will deter further processing investment. A credible national quality-certification scheme would be a concrete sign that the roadmap is gaining traction.
The Robust International plant is a confidence marker, not a guarantee. While the Singaporean trader’s expansion shows interest, other investors will need evidence that the government will back the roadmap with funding, infrastructure and policy support. The 2017 precedent suggests announcements alone are not enough.
Processors and traders should track the next planting cycles. The roadmap’s output targets rest on replanting ageing orchards with improved varieties. If the government fails to deliver subsidised seedlings in the 2026/27 season, the 2036 volume goal will become even less credible.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial Risk	Medium	The 2036 production target may not be met due to weak institutional follow-through, echoing the missed 2020 goal of 500,000 tonnes.
Competitive Risk	Medium	Ivory Coast already produces over 1.5 million tonnes with superior processing infrastructure; Nigeria risks remaining a raw-nut exporter unless it quickly closes the quality and capacity gap.
Regulatory Risk	High	Nigeria lacks a dedicated cashew regulatory body like Ivory Coast’s CCA, and the existing association lacks enforcement power to implement quality standards across 27 states.
Reputation Risk	Medium	Absence of quality control already subjects Nigerian cashew to a discount in international markets, damaging the country’s brand among buyers.
Technology Disruption	Low	Aging orchards and limited access to improved varieties create a slow-burn yield threat rather than a sudden technological disruption.
Commercial Opportunity	High	If the 50% local processing target is reached, Nigeria could capture significantly more value from its crop, attracting investments similar to Robust International’s new plant.