Gold and Silver Log Strongest Week in 28 Weeks After US Jobs Miss

US Jobs Miss Shakes Commodity Markets

The US jobs report reshaped commodity trading last week after ADP private employment rose by only 44,000 in July, well below expectations, and nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against forecasts of an 85,000 increase. The weak data strengthened concerns that the US labor market is losing momentum and reduced market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate increase in September or October. By the end of the week, futures reflected an 85% probability of a December move, while hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials kept policy uncertainty alive.

Lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar supported dollar-denominated commodities: the 10-year US yield fell about 7 basis points to 4.65%, and the dollar index slipped 0.3% to 99.5. Precious metals responded strongly, with silver up 10.2%, palladium up 8%, gold up 7.4% and platinum up 6.2% on an ounce basis — the strongest weekly performance for gold and silver in 28 weeks. Base metals were mixed. Aluminum rose 2.8%, zinc 1.8%, copper 1.3% and lead 0.5%, while nickel fell 1.7% on expectations of higher Indonesian supply.

Copper drew particular attention after the Democratic Republic of Congo banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, LME copper stocks fell to their lowest since mid-February, and the cash-to-three-month spread widened in a sign of near-term tightness. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9, the fastest in 4.5 years, while China's PMI of 50.9 missed expectations and capped gains. In energy, Brent crude fell 8.3% on expectations of a US-Iran agreement, an OPEC+ decision to raise September quotas by about 188,000 barrels per day, and a 2.5 million barrel weekly increase in US commercial crude stocks. Natural gas fell 4.3% as production remained high, LNG feedgas demand eased and cooler weather forecasts weighed on prices.

Agricultural commodities were mixed. Sugar jumped 12.5% after hot, dry European weather and a 26.3% year-on-year drop in Brazil's June center-south production shifted the global market from a surplus to a deficit outlook. Cocoa rose 8.3% on El Niño-related weather risks and lower forecasts for Ghana and Ivory Coast, while wheat, corn, soybeans and coffee posted modest declines.

What the Weekly Moves Reveal About Rates, Supply and Diplomacy

Why Gold and Silver Outperformed After the Payrolls Miss

The transmission was direct: weak payrolls lowered expectations for near-term Fed tightening, which pushed down Treasury yields and the dollar. Since gold and silver pay no interest and are priced in dollars, both effects improve their relative appeal. The debate over Fed credibility, including Chair Kevin Warsh's reported willingness to raise rates in September if inflation stays high, added a defensive bid to precious metals. Silver's 10.2% weekly gain, larger than gold's 7.4%, reflects its higher sensitivity to the same dollar and yield moves.

Copper's Tightness Is More Than a Currency Story

Copper's gain was restrained by China's below-forecast PMI, but physical market signals turned tighter. The DRC's concentrate export ban directly reduces available supply, while the pull of copper into US warehouses ahead of possible import tariffs removed metal from other markets. LME stocks at the lowest since mid-February and a wider cash premium over the three-month contract are classic signs of short-term scarcity, which can keep prices supported even if Chinese demand data remain soft.

Brent's 8.3% Drop: Diplomacy, Quotas and a Bearish Stock Build

Oil fell because three bearish forces lined up. US-Iran diplomacy reduced the geopolitical risk premium, with President Trump signaling a possible deal and President Pezeshkian backing implementation of the June 14 understanding. OPEC+ added supply pressure by raising September output quotas by roughly 188,000 barrels per day. Finally, US commercial crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels, the opposite of the 1.2 million barrel draw the market expected, reinforcing demand concerns.

Agriculture's Split: Weather-Driven Shortages vs. Export Softness

Sugar and cocoa show the classic weather supply shock pattern: heat and drought in Europe and Brazil cut sugar output, while El Niño risks cloud next season's cocoa supply from Ghana and Ivory Coast. In grains, however, weak US wheat exports and improving spring wheat conditions tilted the balance toward lower prices, with Black Sea shipment disruptions limiting the downside. This split matters for food manufacturers and commodity buyers because input costs are moving in opposite directions across the complex.

What to Watch Across Metals, Energy and Agriculture

• Reprice around the December FOMC meeting: futures now place an 85% probability on a hike; the September and October meetings remain live only if high inflation data force Chair Warsh and other hawks to act sooner.
• Treat the 4.65% 10-year yield and 99.5 dollar index as the week's pivot: further declines in either would support continued strength in gold, silver and dollar-priced base metals, while a reversal would blunt the rally.
• Watch copper's physical signals rather than China's headline PMI: LME stocks at the lowest since mid-February, the DRC export ban and a widening cash premium point to short-term supply tightness that can override demand softness.
• Price energy inputs with the US-Iran talks as the main binary: a confirmed deal would keep Brent below the week's 8.3% decline; a breakdown would restore risk premium, while the OPEC+ quota increase already adds bearish supply.
• Hedge sugar and cocoa exposure against weather-linked upside: sugar rose 12.5% on European heat/drought and Brazil's 26.3% production drop, while cocoa gained 8.3% on El Niño and lower Ghana/Ivory Coast forecasts.