US, Iran Near Transitional Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Says

A Transitional Deal for the Strait of Hormuz Takes Shape

The United States and Iran are edging toward an interim agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a report from Axios. Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday that a deal could be reached "today or tomorrow" to open the waterway and move the conflict toward "a more normal situation." Axios, citing a US official and two Gulf sources, reported that Washington, Tehran and Muscat are close to a transitional solution that would give Iran more control over the strategic strait than it had before the war began on February 28.

Iran's public position remains narrower. Foreign ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai said Tehran is only talking to Oman about safe passage through the strait, and an Iranian insider quoted by state media said an agreement is being delayed "as long as the United States continues to threaten Iran." According to Reuters, Tehran is demanding control over inbound vessels, the ability to monitor outbound traffic, and an outbound fairway that runs between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance issued by Oman after Iran is informed. The same source said Iran has already dropped an earlier demand for full control in both directions.

The stakes are visible in shipping data. Kpler figures cited in the liveblog show just eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the same as the day before, compared with 130 to 140 ships per day before US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. At Bab al-Mandab, the southern Red Sea chokepoint, 20 ships passed on Tuesday. Normally the Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

In parallel, the Trump administration is preparing to extend a waiver of the Jones Act, the century-old law that restricts cargo movement between US ports to American-built, American-owned and American-crewed ships, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is intended to lower transport costs and gasoline prices, as President Donald Trump steps up public attacks on Exxon Mobil and Chevron for earning "too much money."

What Reopening Hormuz Would Mean for Oil Markets, Shippers and Gulf Diplomacy

What the Reported Transitional Terms Would Actually Change

The Axios account and the Reuters sourcing point to something more than a simple reopening. Iran is described as seeking control over incoming ships, monitoring of outbound traffic, and a role in approving departures even if Omani authorities issue the formal clearance. If that framework is implemented, the strait would operate under a shared Iran-Oman administration rather than the pre-war regime of free transit. That is a meaningful shift in control of the world's most important oil chokepoint, and it suggests Washington is trading operational influence for a faster return of oil flows.

The Chokepoint in Numbers

The Kpler data frame the economic urgency. At eight transits per day versus a historical 130-140, the strait is effectively closed to normal trade. Because roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies move through Hormuz, every additional day of restricted traffic raises shipping costs, war-risk insurance premiums and energy price volatility. The reported deal would not immediately restore pre-war volumes, but it could start that process and blunt the risk premium that has built into crude and product prices.

Why the Jones Act Waiver Is Entering the Picture

The administration's plan to extend the Jones Act waiver is a domestic political response to high gasoline prices as much as an energy policy. By allowing foreign-flagged ships to move cargo between US ports, Washington hopes to cut transport costs for refined fuels, particularly to the Northeast and West Coast. The timing matters: Bessent's public optimism about Hormuz, combined with Trump's attacks on Exxon and Chevron, signals that pump prices are a top political priority ahead of any agreement being finalized.

The Gulf Mediation Track Is Running in Parallel

Qatar's foreign ministry said Tuesday that diplomatic contacts have reached a "very advanced stage," with Qatar, Pakistan and Oman coordinating and exchanging draft texts between Washington and Tehran. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is pursuing quiet talks with the Houthis through Omani intermediaries while keeping military options ready after conducting limited airstrikes on Houthi positions in late July. This underscores that the Hormuz negotiation and the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab front are separate risk layers: even a successful Hormuz deal would not automatically stop Houthi attacks on shipping.

A Growing Oil Spill Adds Environmental and Political Pressure

Greenpeace Germany said satellite images show an oil slick of roughly 150 square kilometers spreading from the grounded Suezmax tanker Caroline Bezengi off Oman's Kiblijah island. The vessel is on the UK sanctions list for allegedly carrying Russian oil. The spill adds a humanitarian and environmental dimension to the crisis and creates another reason for Oman and its Gulf neighbors to want the conflict de-escalated quickly.

What to Watch as the Hormuz Talks Reach a Decision Point

For companies, investors and households exposed to energy markets, the next 48 hours carry real weight. The key points to track:

• Bessent's timetable: the Treasury secretary said a deal could be reached Tuesday or Wednesday. If no announcement follows, expect renewed pressure on oil prices, shipping rates and war-risk insurance.
• Iran's core demands: Tehran wants control over inbound vessels, monitoring of outbound traffic, and an outbound fairway between Iran and Oman with Omani-issued clearance. Any deal codifying this will change transit procedures and compliance requirements for tanker operators.
• Shipping volumes: with only eight vessels a day moving through Hormuz versus 130-140 normally, even a partial reopening will take time to rebuild. Charterers should plan for continued tight capacity and elevated freight costs in the interim.
• US gasoline prices: the anticipated Jones Act waiver extension could lower refined-product transport costs, but its effect on pump prices depends on how long it stays in force and whether product flows actually shift. Consumers should treat predictions of quick relief with caution.
• Red Sea risk remains separate: Houthi attacks on a Saudi tanker off Yanbu and an Indian-flagged wooden vessel off Yemen show that Bab al-Mandab still carries security and insurance risk independent of Hormuz.