PwC Holiday Outlook 2026: Gift Spending Holds as Shoppers Move Toward Stores and Screen-Free Gifts

PwC's 2026 Holiday Outlook: Spending Holds, Habits Shift

PwC's Holiday Outlook 2026, based on a June survey of 4,093 US consumers, shows a household mood that is cautious but not retreating from the holiday gift list. Average planned spending on gifts is $708, down only 2% from $721 a year earlier, even though the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell 18.5% year over year over the same period.

Parents remain the biggest spenders, budgeting $875 on average versus $635 for households without children. But the resilience is uneven: millennials plan to cut gift budgets 10% and travel spending 37%, while Gen Z plans cuts of 9% and 29%. Baby boomers are moving the other way, helped by fewer mortgage and dependent-care burdens. The US personal saving rate, which fell from 4.5% in January to 2.7% in June, shows the financial cushion behind that spending is thinning.

PwC partner Ali Furman, the firm's US Consumer Markets Industry leader, describes the gap between weak confidence and steady gift spending simply: the mood says cutback, but the shopping cart says otherwise. Shoppers, she said, are protecting gifts, family dinners and traditions while finding other places to save.

The survey also points to two important shopping shifts. Gen Z is leading a return to physical stores—71% say they enjoy browsing in person, versus 60% of all consumers—and screen-free gifts are gaining ground. AI use is climbing, with 29% of consumers planning to use it somewhere in the journey, but most stop short of buying through AI, using it mainly for research and price comparison before finishing elsewhere.

What the PwC Holiday Data Means for Retailers and Travel Brands

The generational split beneath the $708 average

The flat gift headline hides two very different holiday seasons. Millennials and Gen Z are pulling back, while baby boomers are spending more freely; however, millennials remain the biggest total spenders because of their peak earning years. The survey plausibly links this to where each generation sits in the expense cycle—mortgages, childcare and rent pressure for younger shoppers, easing fixed costs for boomers.

Gen Z wants stores and analog gifts

The report's most counterintuitive channel finding is Gen Z's preference for in-person browsing. At 71% versus 60% overall, it suggests stores that offer discovery and experience can capture young shoppers despite Gen Z's digital fluency. With 52% of consumers planning to browse stores for gift ideas and 60% planning to buy in person, physical retail remains the main discovery and purchase channel, while search engines and social media play secondary roles. The gift mix reinforces the shift: among people buying for children, 41% are leaning toward hands-on gifts such as board games and art supplies, compared with 27% choosing tech devices.

AI is shaping the shortlist, not the checkout

AI adoption in holiday shopping is rising from 22% to 29%, but the usage pattern matters more than the headline. Among AI users, 75% research products and 55% compare prices, with most then completing the purchase elsewhere. Furman's point is that the moment of shortlisting has moved: retailers with clean product data, structured pricing and AI-readable content can be recommended more often. The skill data—only 8% of AI users are advanced—shows many shoppers still prompt like a basic search query, so brands should not overestimate how sophisticated these interactions are.

Travel is absorbing the saving-rate squeeze

Gift budgets are down only modestly, but travel spending is down 37% for millennials and 29% for Gen Z. The report connects the squeeze to high fuel prices at the survey time and a shrinking US personal saving rate, which fell from 4.5% to 2.7% between January and June. The implication is that consumers are still prioritizing holiday traditions and gifts, but are replacing more expensive travel decisions with cheaper hotels, skipped flights or family stays.

Where Retail and Travel Brands Can Act on the PwC Findings

The PwC data gives retail and travel operators a narrower set of priorities for the holiday season.

• Invest in AI-readable product data and structured pricing. Since 75% of AI-using shoppers research products and 55% compare prices before buying elsewhere, stronger data can help brands appear on the shortlist even when the final sale happens on another channel.
• Give Gen Z a reason to visit, not just a transaction. Gen Z's 71% in-store browsing rate and the overall 52% browse-in-store share mean store layout, discovery and experience can convert interest into the 60% of consumers who plan to buy in person.
• Adjust children's assortments toward hands-on gifts. The 41% versus 27% preference for screen-free gifts such as board games and art supplies over tech devices is a concrete signal for category planning and holiday merchandising.
• Hold the line on gift promotions, but offer genuine value. Millennial gift budgets are down 10%, but PwC's Furman argues that value means preserving the experience at a price that feels worth it—not simply discounting.
• Reconfigure travel offers around trade-downs, not fewer trips. Travel intent is steady even though millennial travel spending is down 37% and Gen Z down 29%, suggesting demand can be recaptured with cheaper fares, lower-cost hotels, or options that make flexible dates and family stays easier.