Lula’s Government Defies a Tariff Storm

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva saw a sharp improvement in his public standing following Washington’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, a poll by PoderData shows. The survey, conducted between 18 and 20 July among 2,500 respondents, registered a decline in the share of voters who view the government as bad or terrible, from 47% to 37%, within a single week. The change coincided with the US move that took effect on 22 July.

The positive rating — those who call the administration great or good — rose modestly, from 33% to 36%. The biggest shift, however, occurred in the middle ground: the proportion who deem the government ‘regular’ jumped from 18% to 24%. Just 3% offered no opinion. The 10‑point fall in negative assessments marks the lowest level of rejection since October 2024, when 35% rated the government poorly.

Geographically, support remains strikingly uneven. Lula’s strongest backing comes from the North (51% positive) and the Northeast (54%), while only 28% in the Southeast and 19% in the South give his government a thumbs‑up. The Center‑West region sits at 34%. The poll, with a margin of error of two percentage points, also confirms that the president’s favorability is higher among lower‑income groups and northeastern voters.

Why the US Tariff Gave Lula a Public Opinion Bump

A Rally‑Around‑the‑Flag in a Trade Dispute

The timing of the improvement is hard to ignore. The US tariff, announced just before the interviewing period, appears to have activated a classic ‘rally‑around‑the‑flag’ effect. Facing an external economic challenge, part of the electorate may have temporarily set aside domestic grievances to back the president as the symbol of national resistance. PoderData did not ask directly about the tariff, so the causal link remains an inference — but the magnitude and timing of the swing suggest more than random noise.

Not a Full Endorsement: Most Moved to ‘Regular’

The drop in negative assessments did not translate into a corresponding spike in strong approval. Instead, the disillusioned voters largely migrated to the ‘regular’ category, which nearly tripled. This implies that while the tariff may have softened outright hostility, it has not yet convinced sceptics that the government is performing well. The shift offers Lula a window of reduced pressure, but the support base is fragile: those who now rate the administration as regular could easily revert to negative if economic pain from the tariff materialises.

A Regional Divide That Won’t Disappear

The poll underlines the deep geographical split in Brazilian politics. Lula’s government is overwhelmingly rejected in the wealthy Southeast and South, while it retains strong backing in the poorer North and Northeast. Even a foreign policy success — if the tariff is perceived that way — does little to bridge that gap. The administration’s long‑term challenge remains to win over or at least neutralise sentiment in the south‑eastern industrial heartland, where the tariff could ultimately add to business costs.

What the Numbers Mean for Lula’s Political Capital

  • Lula’s government gains short‑term political headroom to negotiate more assertively with Washington over the 25% tariff, as public discontent has receded. The improved numbers make a confrontational trade stance less risky domestically.
  • The bounce is driven by a shift to ‘regular’, not to enthusiastic approval. The administration cannot afford complacency: it needs to demonstrate quickly that the tariff will not erode purchasing power or employment, or the gains could evaporate.
  • The Northeast and low‑income households remain Lula’s core strongholds. Any policy that inadvertently hurts these groups — for instance through higher import costs feeding into food prices — would damage his rating disproportionately.