What the Quaest Poll Found About Lula's Government

A Quaest poll released on Friday (14 August) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government statistically tied in public opinion. In the survey, 37% of respondents rate the administration as negative, 36% as positive and 25% as regular, while 2% did not know or did not answer. On approval, 48% disapprove of the government and 46% approve, with 6% not responding.

The poll also points to a pessimistic view of Brazil's current direction. A majority, 53%, say the country is on the wrong track, compared with 38% who say it is on the right path. Economic perceptions are sharply negative in the rear-view mirror: 49% say the economy worsened over the past 12 months, 19% say it improved and 30% say it stayed the same.

Looking ahead, expectations are more mixed but not entirely bleak: 42% of voters believe the economy will improve over the next 12 months, 28% think it will worsen and 24% expect stagnation. In first-round voting intention reported in the poll, Lula has 38% against 31% for a senator whose name is not clear in the published excerpt. Rejection figures show former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado at 35%, former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema at 34% and Renan Santos at 21%. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or older face-to-face from 10 to 13 August; the margin of error is 2 percentage points and the poll is registered with the TSE under code BR-06773/2026.

Reading the August Quaest Numbers for Lula and the 2026 Field

Lula's approval is stable, not collapsing

The 48% disapproval and 46% approval numbers are separated by exactly the poll's two-point margin of error. The same is true for the evaluation: 37% negative against 36% positive. That does not indicate a sudden shift; it suggests the government is locked in a familiar, closely divided pattern with a large regular segment still making up 25% of the electorate.

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Economic memory is the main drag

The most striking economic number is the 49% of voters who say the economy worsened in the past year. Although Quaest does not specify the reasons in this release, that retrospective judgment is likely the clearest source of pressure on the government's image. The forward-looking figure is less negative, with 42% expecting improvement, but that expectation is a bet on the next 12 months rather than an endorsement of current conditions.

The 2026 opposition remains fragmented

Lula's 38% first-round vote intention is accompanied by high rejection rates for potential challengers: 35% for Caiado and 34% for Zema. The senator named with 31% in the first-round comparison is not identifiable in the provided excerpt, so the full head-to-head picture is incomplete. Still, the rejection numbers suggest that no opposition name in this poll has consolidated broad national support.

What the Poll Means for the Government, Challengers and Investors

For readers tracking the political and economic consequences, three signals from the Quaest poll stand out.

  • For the Lula government: The 49% economy-worsened figure is the central vulnerability. If inflation or employment data weaken further, the 42% optimism about the next 12 months could erode and tighten an already tied approval contest.
  • For opposition candidates: Caiado's 35% and Zema's 34% rejection rates show no consolidated challenger in this poll. The realistic path for the opposition remains forcing a second round rather than winning outright in the first.
  • For investors and businesses: The poll does not point to an immediate change in economic policy, but sustained negative economic perceptions could increase pressure on the government to adopt more popular, spending-oriented measures before the election.