Trump's Alaska LNG Push Lands Only Taiwan as Seoul and Tokyo Balk

Taiwan Signs On to Alaska LNG as Other Asian Buyers Hold Back

Taiwan has become the first Asian economy to publicly commit to Alaska's long-delayed liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. On 14 October, Taipei confirmed plans to invest up to $4.4bn in a pipeline and terminal and to buy around 6m tonnes of LNG per year, with first deliveries possible in 2032 if construction stays on schedule. The gas would flow from fields in northern Alaska through a 1,300km underground pipeline to a terminal at Nikiski, from where it would be shipped across the Pacific.

President Donald Trump announced the deal first, at a campaign rally in Alaska ahead of the midterm elections, saying Taiwan had agreed to buy 30% of the pipeline's gas for 20 years in what he called one of the largest commitments ever. He put the value at $70–80bn. Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs later clarified that state-owned oil and gas company CPC Corporation had signed a memorandum of intent with the US in March 2025, and that specific investment and purchase terms are still undefined.

The project has been discussed in various forms since the mid-2000s. A previous pipeline plan with Canada's TransCanada was cancelled in 2014 when gas prices fell. Today's version, led by Glenfrane LLC and the state-backed Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, carries an estimated cost of $44.5–54.5bn. Reuters notes that Alaska's costs per unit of capacity could be more than double those of LNG projects on the US Gulf Coast.

Trump has also claimed that South Korea would invest $54bn in the Alaska project and that Japan is forming a joint venture, but both governments have stopped short of confirming any such agreements. South Korea's trade ministry said the US had gone beyond what was actually agreed. For Taiwan, the appeal is clear: it imports 99.7% of its gas, mostly from Qatar, Malaysia and Indonesia, and sees a direct Pacific route as a way to diversify supply and reduce geopolitical risk.

Why the $44bn Alaska LNG Project Still Has Only One Real Customer

Taiwan's Energy Security Calculus

Taiwan's willingness to commit up to $4.4bn is driven less by the economics of Alaskan gas than by its extreme import dependence. With 99.7% of its gas coming from abroad, and previous supplies from Russia via China apparently disrupted by worsening cross-strait relations, Taipei is prepared to pay a premium for a supplier outside the South China Sea and Middle East chokepoints. As Alexey Maslov of Moscow State University's Institute of Asian and African Studies notes, Taiwan is ready to put money into almost any project that reduces its exposure. The direct Pacific route is the core selling point.

Why Seoul and Tokyo Are Resisting

South Korea's trade ministry has publicly contradicted Trump's claim of a $54bn commitment, saying the US exceeded what was agreed and that any participation depends on commercial feasibility. Japan has similarly not confirmed the joint venture Trump mentioned in 2025. The reluctance is rational: Reuters data suggests Alaska LNG's costs per unit of capacity could be more than double those of Gulf Coast projects, and the project carries technological and bureaucratic hurdles, including consultations with local communities. For utilities and trading houses in Seoul and Tokyo, committing to 20-year offtake at uncompetitive prices would be a hard sell to shareholders and regulators.

The Political Timing Behind the Announcement

Trump's rally in Alaska, where Republicans risk losing a Senate seat for the first time in decades, provides the immediate context. As Mikhail Burmistrov of Infoline-Analytics argues, the initiative so far shows signs of serving the political moment rather than commercial logic, creating a positive image of foreign investment. The long-term viability of a project whose first deliveries are not expected before 2031–2032 is further complicated by the possibility of a change in Congress after the midterms or a new president in 2028. For context, large LNG projects typically require 15–20 year offtake contracts to reach final investment decision, and political support alone rarely substitutes for binding commercial terms.

Russia's Quiet Interest

In August 2025, President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was discussing joint LNG work in both the Russian Arctic and Alaska. In February 2026, The New York Times reported that Novatek was in talks about potentially using its technology for Alaska LNG. Novatek confirmed the talks but not any deal. If realised, such cooperation would be unusual given US sanctions on Russian energy, but it underscores how few credible partners the project currently has. For now, it remains an open question whether any non-Taiwan investor will commit before construction deadlines force a decision.

What the Alaska LNG Standoff Means for Asian Gas Buyers and Investors

The Alaska LNG project's commercial viability remains unproven, and Taiwan's conditional commitment is unlikely to be enough to trigger a final investment decision on its own.

For Asian gas buyers and energy investors, the key implications are:

• Taiwan's CPC has signed only a memorandum of intent, not a binding contract. Watch for the conversion of that memorandum into a definitive offtake agreement, which would need to specify pricing indexed to Henry Hub or oil, and a final investment decision by the project sponsors.
• South Korean and Japanese utilities should treat any reported commitments as unconfirmed until their trade ministries issue formal statements. Seoul has already denied the $54bn figure attributed to it by Trump.
• Project cost estimates of $44.5–54.5bn imply a break-even LNG price that may be above current Asian spot levels. Buyers considering long-term contracts should model scenarios where Alaska gas is priced at a premium to Gulf Coast supply.
• Watch the 2026 US midterm election results for Alaska's Senate race. A Republican loss could weaken federal support for the project, while a win may sustain political pressure on allies.
• Monitor Novatek's talks with US counterparts on LNG technology. Any concrete deal would signal a significant shift in US-Russia energy relations and could alter the project's technical risk profile.

Key metrics to track: CPC's final investment decision timeline, the project's updated cost estimate, and any binding offtake agreements from South Korea or Japan.