Why Ryder Says Used Truck and Tractor Prices Have Entered a Recovery

Miami-based logistics and fleet-management company Ryder System Inc. is signaling that the used commercial vehicle market has turned a corner. Chief Executive John Diez told the Deutsche Bank Chicago Industrials Summit on Aug. 11 that used truck and tractor prices are likely to rise at least 10 percent year over year in 2027, after improving roughly 5 percent in the first half of 2026. He described the current moment as the early stages of a recovery in used vehicle sales.

The company's second-quarter data support that view in part. Ryder reported that used tractor prices rose 6 percent from a year earlier, while used truck prices increased 3 percent. Sequentially, tractor prices were up 7 percent and truck prices up 3 percent, reversing declines recorded in the first three months of the year. Unit sales, however, fell 18 percent year over year to 5,100 vehicles from 6,200, though they rose 10.9 percent from the first quarter.

Diez attributed the pricing strength primarily to the recovery in the spot freight market, not to expanding freight activity. He said carriers are not adding to their fleets and that most new equipment purchases are for replacement demand after years of deferred spending during an extended freight downturn.

A second driver is regulatory. Ryder expects the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's draft nitrogen oxide emissions proposal to take effect next year, lifting new truck prices by high single digits to low double digits. Diez said that would also pull used equipment prices higher. Some truck manufacturers have indicated that an estimated $20,000 price increase tied to the rules could be roughly halved if buyers accepted 100,000-mile or five-year warranty terms.

What Ryder's Used-Vehicle Data and the EPA 2027 Rules Reveal About Trucking Demand

Ryder's used-vehicle business is an early-cycle pricing barometer

Ryder is historically known for its used vehicle sales and leasing operations and ranks No. 7 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America. The company is therefore positioned to benefit when used equipment prices firm. The gain in pricing even as unit volume fell 18 percent year over year suggests that tighter supply and recovering demand are allowing the company and other sellers to command better residuals, although lower volume may limit total revenue upside.

The spot freight recovery is lifting prices, not fleet growth

The most important signal in Diez's comments is that carriers are largely buying to replace aging equipment rather than to expand capacity. Spot freight rates have improved, which makes used trucks more attractive to smaller operators and trader-buyers who respond quickly to rate signals. Because freight activity itself is not increasing, the recovery in equipment prices may be somewhat fragile. A renewed softening in spot rates could slow the flow of buyers into used equipment and cool price growth before 2027.

EPA 2027 rules could create both a pre-buy and a repricing effect

The pending EPA nitrogen oxide rule adds policy pressure to the pricing outlook. Diez expects the regulation to raise new truck prices by high single digits to low double digits, which would make late-model used vehicles more competitive as buyers weigh the cost difference. However, truck and engine manufacturers are not racing uniformly into the change. Cummins has said it will stagger the introduction of model-year 2027 engines, and Traton Group, owner of International Motors, has said it is considering a similar approach. That staggering could smooth the supply transition, but it also leaves fleets without firm 2027 pricing until manufacturers publish their order books.

What Fleets and Shippers Should Do Before the 2027 Pricing Shift

  • Fleet managers: Build 2027 acquisition plans around at least a 10 percent increase in used equipment prices and press truck manufacturers for model-year 2027 pricing before committing to replacement orders.
  • Carriers considering asset sales: Used tractor and truck prices rose sequentially in the second quarter of 2026, so selling into this recovery may capture better residuals than the first-quarter decline implied.
  • New truck buyers: Negotiate warranty coverage explicitly. Some original equipment manufacturers have said an EPA-related cost increase estimated at $20,000 could be cut in half with 100,000-mile or five-year warranty terms.
  • Shippers and logistics buyers: Do not assume that rising spot rates will translate into significant new fleet capacity. Ryder's commentary points to replacement demand only, with freight activity not yet expanding.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumRyder's Q2 used vehicle unit sales fell 18 percent year over year to 5,100 even as prices improved, so the recovery could stall if higher prices deter buyers or spot freight weakens.
Competitive RiskMediumRyder's CEO noted that more buyers are entering the used equipment market as pricing recovers, which could increase competition for desirable inventory and squeeze margins.
Regulatory RiskHighThe EPA's draft nitrogen oxide regulation is expected to lift new truck prices by high single digits to low double digits in model-year 2027, and final pricing and warranty structures remain unresolved.
Reputation RiskLowNo specific reputational event is identified; the report covers earnings data, a public conference prediction, and regulatory commentary.
Technology DisruptionMediumCummins plans to stagger model-year 2027 engine introductions and Traton is considering a similar move, which could shift truck-buying cycles and used equipment demand by model availability.
Commercial OpportunityHighRyder's used vehicle and leasing segment could benefit from what the company calls the early innings of a recovery, with used prices expected to rise at least 10 percent in 2027 amid a spot freight rebound.