How Two Stones Rewrote the Pricing Playbook

At the 1990 Tucson gem and mineral show, a vivid neon-blue tourmaline discovered only three years earlier in Brazil's Paraíba state jumped from roughly $200 to more than $2,000 per carat in four days. The best Brazilian Paraíba tourmalines now trade near $60,000 per carat, a level comparable to diamonds, according to the account attributed to Russian gemologist Elena Novoselova.

That move has become a reference point for the colored-stone market. Brazilian deposits were largely exhausted, and stones found in Nigeria and Mozambique often lack the defining neon-blue saturation. Novoselova's view, quoted in the piece, is that copper-bearing green tourmalines will not appreciate in the same way; only the neon-blue material has that scarcity-linked color premium.

Spinel is the second historical winner. Once routinely mistaken for ruby, it has risen more than 13 times in price over the past 20-30 years. At a Bonhams London auction, the 50-carat Hope Spinel sold for £962,500 — roughly $1.46 million at the exchange rate of the time, or about $29,000 per carat.

The question the article poses is practical: if Paraíba tourmaline and spinel are already priced by the market, where might demand turn next? Novoselova's answer is garnets and zircon.

Why the Market Is Rotating From Diamonds to Color

Garnets: From Overlooked to High-Jewelry Staple

Novoselova's garnet call is not a single-stone bet. She distinguishes rare African tsavorite, Ural demantoid collected by enthusiasts, and bright orange spessartine. The demand signal she cites is observable in high jewelry: for the past three years, Bvlgari designs under Lucia Silvestri have featured garnets as a recurring thread. That matters because the article's central argument is that high jewelry houses, not independent influencers, set global consumption trends.

Zircon: Undervalued, but Not Rare

Zircon has high optical properties and comes in yellow, blue, red and colorless forms, which is why Novoselova calls it strongly undervalued. The caveat she gives is abundance: unlike top Paraíba or spinel, zircon is not rare. That lowers the scarcity premium and makes any future price move more dependent on fashion adoption than on geological limits.

Why Diamonds Are Losing the Narrative to Color

The rotation is not random. Novoselova links reduced interest in diamonds to the growing presence of synthetic diamonds in the market. As natural diamond differentiation weakens, consumers still want adornment and are shifting to colored stones. A political-culture detail reinforces the role of visibility: during Kamala Harris's US presidential campaign, her everyday pearl necklace was widely imitated by supporters.

What Buyers Should Verify Before Following the Color Trend

  • Separate origin and color before paying a Paraíba premium. The top $60,000-per-carat prices are for Brazilian neon-blue stones; Nigerian and Mozambican material often lacks that saturation, and Novoselova's forecast excludes green copper-bearing tourmalines.
  • Treat garnet varieties as different assets rather than one stone. Tsavorite, demantoid and spessartine have different rarity and demand signals; Bvlgari's three-year use of garnets is an observable high-jewelry signal, not a guarantee of individual resale value.
  • Apply a scarcity test to zircon. Its optical quality supports the case, but its abundance means any price increase would come from trend adoption, not supply limits — a weaker basis than the Paraíba story.
  • Watch high jewelry collections and campaign-style visibility as demand indicators. The article's logic is that luxury houses set the tone and influencers amplify it; the Harris pearl example shows fashion signals can spread quickly.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumColored gemstone prices can move violently: Paraiba tourmaline went from $200 to over $2,000 per carat in four days in 1990, and such markets are typically illiquid, with auction benchmark prices rather than transparent daily pricing.
Competitive RiskMediumSynthetic diamonds are already redirecting demand from natural diamonds, and colored stones must compete for consumer budgets; new supply from Nigeria or Mozambique and alternative gem narratives can dilute price premiums.
Regulatory RiskLowThe source gives no indication of pending regulation affecting colored gemstone trade, grading standards or import rules.
Reputation RiskMediumOrigin and color-treatment disclosure can determine value; the Paraiba premium depends on Brazilian origin and neon-blue saturation, making undisclosed origin or treatment a specific credibility risk for sellers.
Technology DisruptionMediumLab-grown diamonds are the stated reason buyers are turning to color, and synthetic colored stones could eventually put similar pressure on lower-rarity categories such as zircon.
Commercial OpportunityHighThe article identifies a rotation from diamonds to colored stones and specifically points to garnets and zircon as underappreciated; rare tsavorite, demantoid and spessartine have high-jewelry endorsement from houses such as Bvlgari.