Wall Street Rises Friday but Posts Weekly Loss as Yields and Iran Uncertainties Linger

Friday's Rebound and the Weekly Decline in U.S. Equities

The major U.S. equity indexes closed higher on Friday, but the bounce was not enough to erase a week of losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each rose roughly 0.4%. Even so, all three benchmarks finished the week lower as investors weighed fluctuating government bond yields and continuing uncertainty over the Middle East.

Friday's economic data leaned positive: the U.S. services sector posted its strongest growth in nearly two years, driving a sharp acceleration in overall business activity during August. That offset a slower manufacturing expansion, where reduced inventory building and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war are restraining output.

Against that backdrop, UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100, citing a stronger earnings outlook and robust corporate profit growth. Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cautioned that the near-term road is likely to remain bumpy through the U.S. midterm elections, but he expects a firmer finish to 2026 if an Iran deal, cooling inflation and broad earnings strength materialize.

Individual movers reflected the crosscurrents. Ross Stores gained 4% after raising its annual profit forecast and reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, while Robinhood surged nearly 14% as bitcoin touched its highest levels since mid-May.

How Services Strength, Bond Yields and Iran Are Splitting the Market

A Services Rebound Is Competing With a Manufacturing Drag

The strongest U.S. services reading in nearly two years is the factual heart of Friday's resilience. It suggests the largest part of the U.S. economy—services—is still expanding quickly, which helps explain why investors bought equities even after a difficult week. The manufacturing side is telling a different story: slower growth tied to reduced stock building and supply disruptions from the Iran war. That split means the market is not getting a uniform growth signal; instead, it is rewarding domestic service-oriented strength while treating manufacturing-linked names with more caution.

UBS and Mahn Split on Timing but Not on the Direction

UBS's decision to lift its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,100 is an explicit statement that earnings growth will broaden beyond technology and that profit expectations are improving. But Kevin Mahn's caution shows the disagreement is about the path, not the destination. He expects volatility before and through the midterm elections, then a stronger close if a U.S.-Iran deal, moderating inflation and broad S&P 500 earnings converge. The gap between those views is really about timing: UBS is anchoring to a full-year view, while Mahn is warning that short-term political and geopolitical uncertainty could create tradeable drawdowns first.

Ross Stores and Robinhood Show the Tape Is Still Reward-Specific

Ross Stores rose because it did something company-specific: it raised annual profit guidance and beat quarterly expectations. That supports the view that investors are still willing to pay for evidence of resilient consumer demand in the value segment. Robinhood's 14% surge is a different signal—it moved with bitcoin, not with a fresh company earnings story. These two moves show that even in a market dominated by macro worries, individual performance is being driven by very different forces: earnings credibility in the first case and crypto price momentum in the second.

What the UBS Target, Midterm Timeline and Stock Movers Signal

• UBS's 8,100 S&P 500 target is the most specific year-end benchmark in this report. It rests on stronger earnings and broad profit growth, so treat it as a testable call rather than a promise: each round of quarterly S&P 500 results will show whether the profit expansion is wide enough to justify the level.
• Kevin Mahn's timeline puts the U.S. midterm elections at the center of near-term risk. His base case is that volatility persists until voters produce clarity, and that a durable U.S.-Iran deal, cooler inflation and earnings strength must align for the strong close he expects.
• Friday's services reading is the number to watch next month. The strongest services growth in nearly two years offset manufacturing weakness tied to Iran supply disruptions; a continuation would support growth-sensitive equity positioning, while a sudden pullback would weaken that cushion.
• Ross Stores' raised profit outlook is a concrete consumer-demand signal. Its 4% gain after better-than-expected results shows guidance revisions are still moving individual names even in a choppy market.
• Robinhood's 14% move is tied to bitcoin's highest level since mid-May. Anyone using that stock as a crypto barometer should track the token's price rather than assume the move reflects a new brokerage earnings story.