Tropical Storm Lala Approaches Hawaii After a Season of Near-Misses

A cluster of thunderstorms and wind centered about 935 miles east-southeast of Hilo is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Lala by Thursday and then approach the Hawaiian Islands early Saturday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The system had top winds of 35 miles per hour on Wednesday, just below tropical-storm strength, and the official forecast currently keeps it below hurricane strength as it nears Hawaii.

Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, said interests in the islands should closely monitor the system and that a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required by early Thursday. Hawaii was under threat last month from Hurricane Fausto, which weakened and passed north of the island chain. The state has not taken a direct hurricane hit since Iniki in 1992; if Lala reaches sustained winds of at least 74 mph and strikes, it would be the first such event in 34 years.

The new threat comes as a powerful El Niño builds across the Pacific. Abby Frazier, a climatologist and geography professor at Clark University, said El Niño years typically produce more central Pacific hurricanes, increasing the frequency of storms that threaten Hawaii. The stakes are not limited to direct landfalls: in 2023, Hurricane Dora passed far to the south but helped set up the winds behind the Maui wildfires, a disaster that killed more than 100 people and led Hawaiian Electric Industries to formalize a $2 billion settlement for damage claims.

Why a Storm That May Not Make Landfall Still Carries Real Costs

El Niño Is Shifting More Storm Activity Toward Hawaii’s Longitude

The National Hurricane Center is treating Lala as a system to watch, but the seasonal backdrop matters. The quoted climatologist, Abby Frazier, describes a historical pattern in which El Niño is associated with more central Pacific hurricane formation. That does not guarantee Lala will intensify, but it suggests Hawaii may see more threats this season than in a typical year, even if most systems weaken before reaching the islands.

That pattern carries particular weight because Hawaii has not been directly hit by a hurricane since Iniki in 1992. Iniki killed six people and caused $3.1 billion in damage in today’s dollars, according to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. More than three decades of population growth and development mean a comparable landfall today could carry a different and potentially larger financial toll—a risk that is easy to underweight when direct hits are rare.

Near-Miss Storms Have Already Produced Billion-Dollar Losses

Hawaii's recent history shows that a storm does not have to make landfall to be dangerous. In 2023, Hurricane Dora passed far south of the islands, but the weather pattern it helped create fanned high winds across Maui and fueled fires that killed more than 100 people. Hawaiian Electric Industries later formalized a $2 billion agreement to settle damage claims from the Lahaina wildfire.

That explains why insurers, utilities and emergency managers pay close attention to forecast tracks even when a cyclone is expected to stay offshore. This story does not provide new insurance pricing or underwriting data, but it does highlight that Hawaii’s natural hazard exposure includes wind-driven wildfire risk and flood events, such as the Kona storms earlier this year that sent floodwaters down mountainsides. For the insurance sector, those repeated threats are a reminder that the state’s catastrophe risk is broader than a single hurricane landfall.

What Hawaii Residents and Businesses Should Do Before the Weekend

  • When the Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued—expected as soon as early Thursday—use that formal trigger to secure loose outdoor items and confirm evacuation and family communication plans before the system’s expected approach early Saturday.
  • Do not assume an offshore track means low risk: Hurricane Dora did not make landfall in 2023, yet the conditions it helped create drove the Maui wildfires, so wind and fire preparations remain relevant even if Lala stays below hurricane strength.
  • Residents in areas hit by this year’s Kona-storm flooding should confirm that their property insurance covers flood damage before the weekend, because heavy rain can arrive even from a storm that remains below hurricane intensity.
  • Claims and emergency-management teams with Hawaii exposure can use the expected early-Thursday watch as the trigger to pre-position adjusters and review wind, flood and wildfire response protocols; the 2023 near-miss produced a $2 billion utility settlement.