Why Russian Household Savings Are Moving Out of Deposits

Russian households are reallocating savings after Bank of Russia rate cuts reduced deposit and money-market yields. Central bank data cited by Vedomosti show household funds in banks rose only 7.2% over 12 months after a 26.1% jump in 2024, and the key rate had fallen to 14% by July 2026.

The money that no longer goes into deposits is increasingly flowing into collective investment funds, especially closed-end real estate funds. These vehicles pool cash from investors to buy property and distribute rental income, with a much lower entry ticket than buying a Moscow asset outright: direct residential purchases inside the city can start around 12 million rubles, and commercial property around 20 million, according to Alexander Lavrov of Vostok-Zapad.

In 2025, mass closed-end funds attracted almost 280 billion rubles, with real-estate strategies taking 54% of inflows and 76% in the record fourth quarter. IBC Real Estate counted about 807 billion rubles in retail real-estate fund assets spread across 6.2 million square metres. Funds are typically created for three to fifteen years; exchange-listed units can be traded through an ordinary brokerage account, while unlisted units may be harder to sell and may require a discount.

Inside the Shift to Closed-End Real Estate Funds

The Rate Mechanism Behind the Pivot

The shift is a direct consequence of the Bank of Russia's easing cycle. Money-market funds and deposits lose relative appeal as the key rate falls, pushing risk-averse investors to look for yield elsewhere. Accent Asset Management chief executive Andrey Ogorodov describes the move as diversification rather than a mass deposit exodus, while Finam product manager Igor Sheller says the flow from deposits into alternative instruments is already confirmed by market dynamics.

The central bank data support a middle reading. Deposits are still growing, but much more slowly, and the strongest closed-end fund inflows of 2025 landed in the fourth quarter when the rate cuts were well underway.

Why Real Estate Funds Appeal to Conservative Investors

Fund managers argue the product sits between bonds and equities. It offers regular rental income, but unlike a bond, payouts are not fixed and depend on occupancy, tenant quality and the manager's execution. PSB deputy general director Vladislav Popov says a 13% deposit rate compares with real estate returns of 16% or sometimes 40%, although such returns depend heavily on asset selection and leverage.

The structural advantage is access. Buying a diversified property portfolio directly is expensive, but fund units lower the threshold and allow exposure across different property sectors, as Go Invest analyst Nikita Bredikhin points out. T-Bank executive Dilshod Ibragimov adds that quality warehouse real estate has long-term demand drivers from e-commerce, consumer markets and production.

The Risks Investors Often Underprice

Bredikhin identifies three practical risks. First, listed units may be hard to sell quickly at fair value because trading volumes are thin and spreads wide. Second, losing a key tenant can cut rental income. Third, if the fund borrowed to buy property, higher rates reduce the cash left for investors.

That is why the comparison with deposits is incomplete. A real-estate fund is not a guaranteed savings product; its value moves with property markets, vacancy rates and the quality of fund management. As Bredikhin says, the instrument sits above equities in stability but below corporate bonds and government OFZ bonds because distributions depend on results rather than a fixed contract.

The Growth Forecast

Industry projections assume the rate-cutting cycle continues. Accent estimates real-estate fund net asset value could reach 1.9–2 trillion rubles within two to three years, roughly three times the 2025 level. Yuri Franz of BCS calls the CBR rate the main driver, while Ogorodov says that if actively traded funds reach 20–25% of the market, roughly one million additional private investors could be drawn in.

What Retail Investors Should Check Before Buying Real Estate Fund Units

For savers considering closed-end real estate funds, the article offers several concrete checks:

  • Verify whether the fund's units are exchange-listed and actively traded. Unlisted units may be sold only at a discount, and even listed funds can have wide spreads when volumes are low.
  • Ask whether the fund uses borrowed money to buy property. If it does, higher or rising interest rates will reduce the net income available for distributions.
  • Treat headline returns such as 16% or 40% as project-specific estimates, not guarantees. Check the underlying property type, vacancy assumptions and tenant mix, because payouts are not fixed like a bank deposit.
  • Plan for a horizon of at least three years, since funds are often structured for three to fifteen years and early exit may be costly.
  • Do not replace all deposit savings with property funds. Real-estate fund distributions rank below corporate bonds and government OFZ bonds in reliability, so keep enough liquid savings for short-term needs.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumIf the Bank of Russia rate-cutting cycle stalls or reverses, deposit and money-market yields may regain appeal, slowing the inflow that drove 280 billion rubles into mass closed-end funds in 2025 and the 54% share captured by real estate strategies.
Competitive RiskMediumAsset managers are competing for the same retail savings shifting out of deposits and volatile stock market instruments; only products with exchange liquidity and credible track records are likely to capture the forecast 1.9–2 trillion ruble asset base.
Regulatory RiskLowNo new restrictions are described in the article, but the Bank of Russia's evolving methodology for mass funds and potential future rules on retail collective investment products could affect distribution and reporting.
Reputation RiskMediumRetail investors may mistake real-estate funds for deposit substitutes; if returns disappoint or units prove hard to sell, trust in fund managers could suffer because payouts are variable and below corporate bonds and OFZ in reliability.
Technology DisruptionLowTechnology is not a central threat or driver here; exchange-listed units rely on ordinary brokerage access, and growth depends on interest rates and property market fundamentals rather than technological change.
Commercial OpportunityHighAccent Asset Management forecasts real-estate fund net asset value could rise nearly threefold to 1.9–2 trillion rubles within two to three years, with about one million additional private investors possible if actively traded funds reach 20–25% of the market.