Bolsonaro's 'parallel Abin' case closed, but other probes continue

Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) has archived one of the many investigations targeting former president Jair Bolsonaro—the so-called “parallel Abin” inquiry into an alleged illegal espionage scheme run by the Brazilian Intelligence Agency. Justice Alexandre de Moraes followed the recommendation of the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR), ruling that the evidence gathered about the clandestine monitoring of political opponents had already been used to convict Bolsonaro for attempting a coup after the 2022 election.

Despite the closure, the former head of state remains entangled in a web of other active STF probes. The most prominent are the inquiries into the spread of fake news and the operation of digital militias—investigations that have made Bolsonaro a formal target. Additionally, the PGR has not formally shelved the case concerning the alleged misappropriation of luxury gifts received during his presidency; while prosecutors concluded they could not charge him with embezzlement under current law, Justice Moraes ordered a separate part of the case, related to items found on his lawyer's phone, to proceed independently.

Further cases include Bolsonaro's alleged incitement of criminal behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic by discouraging mask use and spreading vaccine misinformation, an investigation into his supposed interference in the Federal Police that was reopened last year, and his inclusion in the inquiry into the intellectual authors of the January 8, 2023, riots after he shared a video with false accusations against the STF and electoral court. Though some of these probes have seen requests for archiving from the PGR, no final decisions have been made, and additional international cooperation requests are still pending.

The caseload: which investigations still threaten the ex-president

The real scope of Bolsonaro's legal exposure

Even with the Abin case closed, the former president's legal jeopardy remains significant. The most serious threat is the conviction he already holds—27 years for leading the coup conspiracy—but the active investigations keep his political future deeply uncertain and his inner circle under pressure.

The fake news and digital militias inquiries are directly linked to the anti-democratic tactics used to challenge the 2022 election results. A finding against Bolsonaro here could reinforce the narrative that his campaign relied on organized disinformation, potentially affecting his eligibility and reputation. The Federal Police interference case, originally presented by former Justice Minister Sergio Moro, was reopened with a PGR request for additional investigation, signaling that prosecutors see enough material to pursue it further—a development that could bring new facts to light and implicate other figures from Bolsonaro's administration.

The jewelry gifts case, though denuded of criminal charges against the former president, demonstrates a pattern of alleged misconduct that, while not currently prosecutable, may be cited in political disqualification proceedings. Meanwhile, the cases related to vaccine misinformation and the January 8 riots, even if partly dormant, illustrate the breadth of alleged conduct that courts can revisit if fresh evidence emerges—especially from international cooperation or future testimonies.