Kassab Says Flávio Bolsonaro's Election Chances Are 'Zero'

Gilberto Kassab, the national president of the PSD and the vice-presidential candidate on Ronaldo Caiado's ticket, told an audience of business leaders in São Paulo on Thursday night that Flávio Bolsonaro has 'zero' chance of winning October's presidential election. Kassab said the PL senator is currently being 'protected' by the PT campaign but will not survive closer scrutiny of his record and inner circle once the campaign intensifies.

Kassab also argued that the neutrality of key Centrão parties is effectively support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He said that by not fielding their own presidential candidates, MDB, PP, União Brasil and Republicanos are siding with Lula. That decision, Kassab added, redistributes unused free television time — giving Caiado a projected two minutes and almost twenty seconds of airtime, which he described as 'an eternity' in the free advertising schedule.

The PSD leader used the event to court support, asking guests to compare the presidential tickets and to promote Caiado on social media and in messaging groups. He also laid out policy positions aimed at the business audience: Brazil does not need to raise the tax burden, only cut waste, combat misuse of public funds and eliminate privileges. Kassab defended a political reform introducing district voting, and cited federal deputies Nikolas Ferreira and Eduardo Bolsonaro as illustrations of what he considers weaknesses in the current proportional system — while adding that he would not judge the individuals themselves.

Kassab also highlighted a Caiado proposal to set a minimum age of 60 for nominees to Brazil's Supreme Federal Court, together with a quarantine period before former justices may issue legal opinions, practice law or run for office.

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How the Centrão's Neutrality Shapes the Caiado Race

Why Kassab Is Dismissing Flávio Bolsonaro Now

Kassab's 'zero chance' statement is not a neutral forecast; it is a positioning move. By declaring Flávio Bolsonaro unviable, Kassab is asking conservative and business voters to treat the race as a contest between Lula and Caiado, not to park their support with a candidate he says will collapse. The claim that the PT is currently protecting Flávio also serves a strategic argument: Kassab suggests the PT would rather face a weakened opponent than a consolidated Caiado challenge.

The Centrão Neutrality Claim

The assertion that MDB, PP, União Brasil and Republicanos are 'with Lula' is Kassab's interpretation, not a formal alignment. Neutrality does not automatically convert into active support for the president. But the framing matters politically: it pressures those parties to clarify their position and paints Caiado as the main alternative outside the PT orbit. The concrete prize Kassab identifies is airtime — when a party has no presidential candidate, its television minutes are redistributed among the remaining tickets.

The 2-Minute-20-Second Currency

In Brazil's free electoral advertising model, access to television time can make or break a challenger. Kassab's projection of roughly two minutes and twenty seconds would be significant for Caiado, who lacks Lula's universal recognition and the Bolsonaro family name. Kassab calls the allocation 'almost a soap opera' to signal that the campaign can now deliver a sustained national message rather than competing through fragmented social media clips. The advantage, however, depends on the official allocation being confirmed.

Policy Signals to the Business Crowd

The proposals Kassab presented — no tax increases, spending cuts, district voting, and stricter rules for Supreme Court justices — were tailored to the agribusiness, mining and industrial guests in the room. The anti-tax pledge speaks directly to cost concerns, while the court reforms tap into long-running frustrations over legal uncertainty. By referencing Nikolas Ferreira and Eduardo Bolsonaro as examples of the current system's flaws, Kassab draws a distinction between Caiado's right-of-centre ticket and the Bolsonaro movement without making a direct personal attack.

What to Watch as the Caiado Campaign Ramps Up

  • For the Caiado campaign: The projected two minutes and twenty seconds of free television time gives the ticket a national advertising window; the immediate task is to define Ronaldo Caiado before PT attacks reshape the race.
  • For business audiences: Kassab's pitch is built on no new taxes and spending cuts, so agribusiness, mining and industry executives can expect further outreach tied to those positions rather than promises of higher public spending.
  • For voters and observers: Watch whether the PT shifts its line of attack toward Flávio Bolsonaro as Kassab predicts, because the 'zero chance' claim depends on exposure materializing before the October vote.
  • For Centrão parties: MDB, PP, União Brasil and Republicanos face pressure to answer Kassab's framing; their actual campaign behavior will show whether neutrality tilts toward Lula or remains uncommitted.