Key Points
- A recent Quaest poll shows Lula leading among voters who previously supported Augusto Cury, with 48% of intentions to vote for him.
- Flávio Bolsonaro has gained ground among voters who supported Ronaldo Caiado, with 57% of intentions to vote for him.
- Lula has also gained ground among voters who abstained or voted in blank in the first round, with 40% of intentions to vote for him.
Voter Intentions Shift Ahead of Second Round
A recent Quaest poll has revealed a shift in voter intentions ahead of the second round of the Brazilian presidential election. The poll shows that Lula is leading among voters who previously supported Augusto Cury, with 48% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Lula had 34% of intentions to vote for him.
Flávio Bolsonaro has also gained ground among voters who supported Ronaldo Caiado, with 57% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Bolsonaro had 42% of intentions to vote for him.
Lula has also gained ground among voters who abstained or voted in blank in the first round, with 40% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Lula had 23% of intentions to vote for him.
At a Glance
| Pollster | Quaest Brazilian polling firm |
| Methodology | Presential survey Conducted between October 17-20, 2026 |
| Sample size | 2154 Number of respondents |
| Margin of error | 2.1% 95% confidence interval |
Where the Sides Stand
Lula
Position: Leading among voters who previously supported Augusto Cury
Role in the story: Presidential candidate
Motivation: To win the election
Bolsonaro
Position: Gaining ground among voters who supported Ronaldo Caiado
Role in the story: Presidential candidate
Motivation: To win the election
Behind the Poll Numbers
Behind the Poll Numbers
The Quaest poll was conducted between October 17-20, 2026, and had a sample size of 2154 respondents. The poll has a margin of error of 2.1%, which means that the results are reliable within a 95% confidence interval.
The poll shows that Lula is leading among voters who previously supported Augusto Cury, with 48% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Lula had 34% of intentions to vote for him.
Flávio Bolsonaro has also gained ground among voters who supported Ronaldo Caiado, with 57% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Bolsonaro had 42% of intentions to vote for him.
Lula has also gained ground among voters who abstained or voted in blank in the first round, with 40% of intentions to vote for him. This is a significant increase from the previous poll, where Lula had 23% of intentions to vote for him.
What to Expect in the Second Round
What to Expect in the Second Round
The Quaest poll suggests that Lula and Bolsonaro are gaining ground among different groups of voters ahead of the second round of the Brazilian presidential election. This could have significant implications for the outcome of the election.
Based on the poll results, it is likely that Lula will continue to lead among voters who previously supported Augusto Cury, while Bolsonaro will continue to gain ground among voters who supported Ronaldo Caiado.
Lula has also gained ground among voters who abstained or voted in blank in the first round, which could be a significant advantage for him in the second round.
Risk & Opportunity Assessment
| Commercial Risk | Low | The poll results are based on a sample size of 2154 respondents, which is a relatively large sample size. |
| Competitive Risk | Medium | The poll results show that Lula and Bolsonaro are gaining ground among different groups of voters, which could have significant implications for the outcome of the election. |
| Regulatory Risk | Low | The poll results are based on a survey of voters, which is not subject to regulatory risks. |
| Reputation Risk | Medium | The poll results could have a significant impact on the reputation of Lula and Bolsonaro, as well as the parties they represent. |
| Technology Disruption | Low | The poll results are based on a survey of voters, which is not subject to technology disruption risks. |
| Commercial Opportunity | Medium | The poll results suggest that Lula and Bolsonaro are gaining ground among different groups of voters, which could create commercial opportunities for parties and candidates who are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. |
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