Merz Wins Support in Dublin for Linking EU Budget to Ukraine Financing

What Merz Took to Dublin — and What Came Back

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travelled to Dublin for an informal meeting of the European Council — the body that brings together the heads of state and government of the European Union. The agenda covered three themes: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU's next long-term budget (the Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFR), and the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence.

On Ukraine, Merz said in his statement that 'certain progress' had been made in the peace negotiations and that Europe would in future be sitting at the table. EU members plan to continue talks next week on a unified European position in the negotiations and on how to finance Ukraine — this time at a meeting of the coalition of the willing in Berlin.

The chancellor used the margins of the Dublin meetings to make the case to EU partners for his approach to the next MFR. His central argument: European security is closely tied to the defence of Ukraine, so European security policy should be a priority in the next budget and should be carried 'solidarily' by all EU members. Financing Ukraine, in his view, is a shared task for all member states — a link between the EU budget and collective Ukraine financing that, according to the government's account, drew considerable support in Dublin.

The AI discussion followed a similar logic of European coordination. Merz wants technological development in Europe to be faster, better, more sovereign and more resilient. That means both using AI's potential to strengthen European competitiveness and guaranteeing its responsible and safe use — two goals the government says require strong cooperation across the EU. Informal Council meetings like this one are designed to allow exactly this kind of open debate on pressing issues; they typically do not produce formal conclusions.

Why the EU Budget Is Now a Security Instrument

Why Merz Is Folding Ukraine Into the EU Budget

By tying the next Multiannual Financial Framework to collective Ukraine financing, Merz is trying to move Ukraine support from an ad hoc, case-by-case exercise into a structural line of the EU's own long-term spending plan. The political logic is straightforward: a multi-year budget framework locks in commitments that national budgets — exposed to election cycles and domestic fiscal pressure — cannot guarantee on their own. The government's account says the chancellor received 'much support' for this linkage in Dublin, though informal Council meetings produce no formal conclusions, so that support is political signalling rather than a binding commitment.

The Berlin Follow-Up Is the Real Test

The Dublin discussion defers the hard decisions. A unified EU position in the peace negotiations and the financing question are both pushed to next week's coalition of the willing meeting in Berlin. That sequencing matters: Dublin was about building a coalition around the principle of collective financing; Berlin is where the participants will have to move toward concrete commitments. Until then, the practical question of who pays, how much and through which instrument remains open.

AI as a Competitiveness and Sovereignty File

The AI debate in Dublin was framed around a dual imperative: capture AI's economic potential for European competitiveness, and ensure its responsible and safe use. Merz's language — faster, better, more sovereign, more resilient — places the emphasis on Europe's ability to develop and deploy the technology on its own terms rather than purely on regulation. For context, this framing sits within the broader European debate over how to balance competitiveness with safety rules, and the Dublin discussion signals that member states want both goals pursued through stronger EU-wide cooperation rather than fragmented national approaches.

What Dublin Signals for the Budget Negotiation

Merz's push to make European security policy a 'solidary' priority in the next MFR is effectively an opening bid in the budget negotiation. If that framing gains traction, the next MFR would carry a larger security and defence dimension than previous frameworks — with implications for how other spending categories are sized. The Dublin meeting did not settle any of this, but it established the German position clearly and, per the government's account, with visible partner backing ahead of the formal budget talks.

What to Watch Before the Berlin Coalition Meeting

The key insight: Merz is trying to convert Ukraine support from a recurring emergency decision into a structural feature of the EU's next long-term budget — and Dublin showed the idea has political traction, though nothing is binding yet.

• Before the Berlin coalition of the willing meeting next week: expect the focus to shift from the principle of collective Ukraine financing to concrete questions of instrument, burden-sharing and timing. Watch whether a unified EU position in the peace negotiations emerges alongside it.
• For the MFR negotiation: the German position is now explicit — European security policy as a priority, carried solidarily by all member states. Track whether other member states echo this framing in their own budget positions, since that determines whether it survives into the formal proposal.
• On AI: the Dublin discussion confirms member states are pursuing competitiveness and safe, responsible use in parallel, with EU-wide cooperation as the stated vehicle. Watch for follow-up initiatives that translate this dual framing into concrete coordination.

Metrics and dates worth watching: the outcome of next week's Berlin coalition of the willing meeting; any movement toward a formal EU position on the peace negotiations; and the first formal MFR proposals that reveal whether security becomes a named budget priority.