Key Points

  1. China bought $7.2 billion of non-soy US agricultural goods from January to September, the lowest for the period since 2019, well short of the pace needed for its $17 billion annual pledge.
  2. Weak Chinese demand, abundant domestic supply and new competitors — notably Brazil in sorghum — are undermining the deal even before any tariff cuts take effect.
  3. The shortfall frustrates US farmers, complicates Washington's calculation on when the commitment clock starts, and has become a political issue days before the US midterm elections.

Why China's $17 Billion Farm Pledge Is Falling Short

China's purchases of US agricultural products outside soybeans are on track for their weakest year in seven years, despite a pledge by Beijing to buy at least $17 billion worth annually. Between January and September, China bought $7.2 billion of US farm goods — from meat to corn — the lowest for that period since 2019, when the first US-China trade war was at its peak. Soybeans sit under a separate commitment, and China is broadly on pace to meet that one. It is not yet clear whether Beijing is formally in breach of the non-soy target.

The ambiguity partly stems from Washington itself. The White House has not said whether the clock started after the May announcement or will only begin once China completes proposed tariff cuts, which have not yet happened. That uncertainty makes it hard to judge compliance — and harder for US farmers to plan. The slow pace of buying dims hopes of an import recovery this year and adds to pressure on producers already contending with higher fuel costs.

The issue has become politically charged just before Tuesday's US midterm elections, with Democrats courting voters in farm regions traditionally aligned with President Donald Trump's Republican Party. "Our producers are patriots, but there are a lot of full grain silos and certainly a desire to see this trade happen," said Tim Lust, executive director of the National Sorghum Producers. "Soybeans are trading, but other commodities are not." The US Department of Agriculture has sent the Office of the US Trade Representative questions about how the proportional 2026 target will be calculated. The USTR, the White House and China's Commerce Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

At a Glance

Main PartiesChina and the United States
Beijing pledged to buy at least $17bn a year in US farm goods excluding soybeans; Washington has not clarified when the clock starts.
Key Financial Figure$7.2 billion (Jan–Sep purchases)
China's non-soy US agricultural imports for the first nine months, the lowest since 2019.
Committed Target$17 billion per year
Minimum annual purchase pledge for non-soy US farm products, separate from the soybean commitment.
Key Commodity — Corn~900,000 tonnes forecast for 2026/27
COFCO Futures' projection, down sharply from nearly 20 million tonnes in 2021.
Key Commodity — Sorghum3.7 million tonnes US exports to China
US shipments through end-August; Brazil has already sent 1.7 million tonnes after gaining market access in September 2025.
Key OrganizationUS Trade Representative (USTR)
Receiving USDA questions on how the proportional 2026 target will be calculated; did not respond to comment requests.
Key OrganizationNational Sorghum Producers
US producer group whose executive director, Tim Lust, says soybeans are trading but other commodities are not.
Key RegulationChinese meat-plant export licences
Over 400 US slaughterhouses were renewed in May, but about half of US beef slaughter capacity still lacks Chinese market access.
Key DateUS midterm elections, Tuesday 3 November
Timing that gives the farm-purchase shortfall direct political weight.

Where the Sides Stand

US farmers and agricultural exporters

Position: They want Beijing to accelerate purchases of corn, sorghum, beef and other non-soy products, arguing the pledge is not being met in practice.

Role in the story: Sellers facing full silos, higher fuel costs and stalled sales; their frustration is voiced through groups such as the National Sorghum Producers.

Motivation: Revenue losses from four months of near-zero sales and competition from Brazil and other suppliers.

Chinese buyers and state-linked traders

Position: Purchases are constrained by weak domestic demand, ample local supply and price competitiveness; meeting the target would require state-directed buying outside normal market conditions.

Role in the story: The counterparty whose buying decisions determine whether the $17bn target is reached.

Motivation: Commercial logic — cheaper domestic corn and pork, plus alternative suppliers — rather than political commitment alone. (our reading)

Sorghum, Corn and Beef: Where the Trade Deal Is Really Slipping

Why Corn and Sorghum Are the Weak Spots

Even if buying picks up, analysts say hitting the $17 billion target will be difficult given weak Chinese demand and competition from other suppliers. To get there, Beijing would likely have to mobilise state-owned enterprises to buy beyond normal commercial logic. Corn illustrates the problem. At the 2021 peak, China imported $5.6 billion of US corn, equivalent to almost 20 million tonnes. Last month, COFCO Futures — a brokerage linked to a Chinese state company — said US corn was not competitive, partly because of ample domestic supply, and projected imports of only about 900,000 tonnes in the 2026/27 season that began in September.

Sorghum tells a similar story. US exports to China reached 6.5 million tonnes worth $2.1 billion in 2021, but now face competition from Brazil, which gained access to the Chinese market in September 2025. Brazil has already shipped 1.7 million tonnes this year, with nearly 1 million tonnes more expected, according to Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex. US exports to China stood at about 3.7 million tonnes through the end of August, above last year's stalled levels — but sales have effectively stopped over the past four months.

Beef: Regulatory Barriers on Top of Price

US meats face similar obstacles. China has abundant pork and poultry supply, while US beef is more expensive because of shrinking American herds. Regulatory barriers compound the problem: in May, China renewed export licences for more than 400 US slaughterhouses, but roughly half of US beef slaughter capacity still lacks authorisation to sell into China, according to the US Meat Export Federation. Some plants were blocked after Chinese authorities said they found residues of substances not approved in China, said Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation.

The State-Buying Question

Given these constraints, analysts expect Beijing will need to lean on state-owned enterprises to reach the $17 billion target, as it has with soybeans. Whether it does so is ultimately a political decision. "A lot of this seems to hinge on the extent to which China will turn to state-owned companies to make these purchases," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, an agricultural market intelligence firm specialising in China. "It's hard to get to $17 billion in non-soy products without directed purchases made outside normal market conditions."

For context, the standoff sits inside a broader pattern of trade diversification: Brazil has expanded its share of Chinese agricultural imports across soybeans, corn and now sorghum, while US exporters face structural competition rather than a temporary dip. That makes the $17 billion pledge less a commercial target than a political instrument — one whose execution depends on decisions in Beijing that Washington cannot enforce.

What US Farmers, Traders and Buyers Should Watch Next

The single most important insight: the $17 billion non-soy commitment is unlikely to be met through normal market forces — it will require state-directed Chinese buying, and that decision is political, not commercial.

For US farmers, grain traders, meat exporters and the policymakers watching the US-China trade file, the practical implications are concrete:

  • US sorghum and corn exporters: treat Brazil's September 2025 market access as permanent, not temporary. With 1.7 million tonnes already shipped and nearly 1 million more scheduled, Brazilian sorghum is displacing US volumes in China's feed mix. Reassess 2026/27 sales assumptions accordingly.
  • US beef processors: roughly half of US beef slaughter capacity still lacks Chinese export authorisation. Plants blocked over residue findings should treat re-listing as a regulatory process, not a trade-policy one — it will not be resolved by a headline deal.
  • US producers with full silos: the National Sorghum Producers' warning about full grain silos and higher fuel costs suggests storage and cash-flow planning should assume no near-term Chinese demand recovery this year.
  • Watch the USTR's answer on the 2026 proportional target. The USDA has formally asked how it will be calculated; the response will determine whether the $17 billion figure is enforceable or aspirational.
  • Watch COFCO Futures' import forecasts — its ~900,000-tonne corn projection for 2026/27 is the clearest signal yet of how Chinese state-linked traders view US competitiveness.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskHighUS non-soy farm exports to China are running at $7.2bn for January–September, the lowest since 2019, with corn imports projected at just ~900,000 tonnes for 2026/27 versus nearly 20 million tonnes in 2021.
Competitive RiskHighBrazil gained Chinese sorghum market access in September 2025 and has already shipped 1.7 million tonnes, directly displacing US volumes that once reached 6.5 million tonnes.
Regulatory RiskMediumAbout half of US beef slaughter capacity still lacks Chinese export authorisation, and some plants were blocked over residue findings, adding a regulatory layer on top of price and demand issues.
Reputation RiskLowThe story concerns trade flows and policy compliance rather than a specific company's conduct; no named brand faces direct reputational exposure.
Technology DisruptionLowNo technology shift is central to this story; the dynamics are demand, price competitiveness and market access.
Commercial OpportunityMediumIf Beijing directs state-owned enterprises to buy, US exporters of corn, sorghum and meat could see a sharp but policy-dependent rebound; the opportunity is real but conditional on a political decision in Beijing.