Political Ad Spending Hits $11 Billion as Midterms Crowd Out Consumer Marketers

How Record Political Spending Is Reshaping the Ad Market

With one week until the midterm elections, political advertising spending has reached unprecedented levels. According to AdImpact, total spending for the 2025-26 cycle has hit $11.038 billion, with digital platforms alone accounting for $1.6 billion—a figure expected to reach $2 billion. The surge is dominated by Democratic spending at 52%, followed by Republican at 32%, and other categories at 26%.

This record spending is creating significant challenges for general market advertisers. As political messages flood the airwaves, they are either crowding out conventional consumer ads or driving up rates, making media more expensive. Moreover, the heavy focus on economic messaging—about 70% of political ads—is creating a toxic environment for consumer brands, particularly high-end and luxury marketers whose ads run adjacent to depressing economic harangue.

Meanwhile, connected TV (CTV) platforms are missing out on a political advertising windfall. Despite accounting for 21% of total political spending, CTV's share could be much higher if more platforms accepted political ads and provided public disclosure data on competitive spending, similar to broadcast media's FCC-mandated transparency. Experts like Stagwell's Tyler Goldberg point to Snap as a model for how CTV platforms could benefit from embracing political advertising and transparency.

Why CTV Is Missing the Political Ad Windfall

Why CTV Platforms Are Leaving Money on the Table

Connected TV currently represents about 21% of all political ad spending cycle-to-date, but experts believe this figure would be significantly higher if more CTV platforms accepted political ads and provided public disclosure data. According to Tyler Goldberg of Stagwell Media, many CTV direct platforms and open exchange DSPs still refuse political ads, and even fewer offer the kind of competitive ad spending transparency that regulated broadcast media must provide under FCC rules. This reluctance is holding the medium back from a political advertising windfall.

Goldberg cites Snap as a poster child for what CTV platforms should consider. The social media platform made a concerted effort to ask the industry what it wanted and emulated broadcast industry standards, reaping two-sided benefits: positive PR for transparency and an economic windfall. While CTV public disclosure would not be perfect—since CTV is purchased more real-time, making data more of a look-back—Goldberg notes that from a political media planning and buying point of view, it would be better than nothing.

The Squeeze on General Market Advertisers

The record political spending is creating two big problems for general market advertisers trying to get their conventional consumer messaging out there. Firstly, the sheer volume of political media spending is either crowding general market advertisers off the airwaves or driving rates up, making media more expensive to buy. Secondly, the depressing economic harangue that dominates political messaging—about 70% of all political ad messaging this cycle has been about the economy—is creating a toxic media environment for consumer marketers, especially high-end and luxury ones, running their ads adjacent to it.

This environment is particularly challenging for brands that rely on positive emotional associations. Running a luxury car ad next to a political spot warning about economic doom is hardly ideal. As a result, some advertisers may need to rethink their media placement strategies, potentially shifting budgets to platforms or dayparts less saturated with political content.

What This Means for the Broader Ad Market

The midterm spending spree is also a preview of things to come. Goldberg predicts that 2028 political ad spending will reach $15 billion, and that 2032 could top $20 billion. This growth is driven by factors like the increasing cost of Senate races—which could become $1 billion affairs—and the expansion of competitive states in presidential election years. For the advertising industry, this means political advertising will only become a larger force, further intensifying competition for inventory and audience attention.

For platforms, the lesson is clear: those that embrace political advertising with transparency and robust infrastructure stand to gain. Those that do not will continue to watch from the sidelines as billions flow to competitors. For advertisers, the challenge will be to navigate an increasingly cluttered and politically charged media landscape, finding ways to reach consumers without being drowned out or dragged down by the surrounding content.

What This Means for Media Buyers and Platforms

The most important insight: political ad spending is not just a seasonal nuisance for marketers—it is a structural force that is raising costs, limiting inventory, and altering the media environment in ways that will persist and grow.

For media buyers and brand managers, the implications are immediate. With political spending at record levels and projected to climb, the crowding-out effect will only intensify. Consider shifting budgets toward platforms or dayparts less saturated with political content, or negotiate upfront for inventory that guarantees separation from political ads. For CTV platforms, the opportunity is clear: those that adopt political ad acceptance and transparent disclosure could capture a larger share of the billions being spent. Snap's example shows that proactive engagement with the political ad market can yield both revenue and reputational benefits.

In the short term (0–6 months), monitor the post-election ad market for a potential dip in rates as political spending subsides, but be prepared for a rapid rebound as the 2028 cycle approaches. In the medium term (6–24 months), evaluate your media mix to ensure resilience against political cycles. In the long term (2–5 years), expect political ad spending to exceed $15 billion by 2028, further straining inventory and raising costs. Platforms that fail to adapt will find themselves increasingly marginalized.

Key metrics to watch: AdImpact's cycle-to-date spending updates, CTV's share of political ad spending, and announcements from major CTV platforms regarding political ad acceptance and disclosure policies.