Anthropic's IPO Valuation Hinges on $190–200 Billion 2028 Revenue Forecast

Why Anthropic's IPO Price Tag Depends on 2028 Revenue

Anthropic is preparing for what could be one of the largest initial public offerings on record, but the pricing debate is not really about current results. Two people familiar with the company's finances say bankers are working from a projected 2028 revenue figure of about $190 billion to $200 billion, a number not previously reported. That target dwarfs the $47 billion annualized revenue run rate the company disclosed in May.

The approach of applying enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples to forecasts is familiar for fast-growing software businesses that have not yet built a full profit profile. Looking two years ahead, however, is less common. Four sources said bankers and investors are using those forward multiples because Anthropic is expanding so quickly that current benchmarks are difficult to set while it is still pouring money into AI infrastructure.

There are recent precedents. Backers of Cerebras Systems looked at 2028 revenue expectations ahead of this year's listing, and SpaceX projections extended to 2029 before its record valuation debut in June, the sources said. In Anthropic's case, investors are betting that revenue will eventually grow faster than the compute, model-training, inference and staffing costs needed to support it.

The operating trajectory explains why. Anthropic has said its revenue run rate was about $9 billion at the end of 2025 and had climbed above $47 billion by May. For the second quarter of 2026 it projected revenue of at least $10.9 billion, more than double the prior quarter, and its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million. Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

How Wall Street Is Benchmarking Anthropic Against Palantir, Cloudflare and SpaceX

Why the 2028 Forecast Is Carrying the IPO Price

Current EBITDA does not reflect the company Anthropic expects to become. Its spending on GPUs, other compute capacity, model training, inference and staff is necessary to support rapid expansion, but those costs could become a smaller share of revenue as it scales. The company has said its revenue run rate grew more than tenfold annually in each of the three years through early 2026, which is why investors are willing to apply valuation multiples to 2028 rather than to today's numbers.

The arithmetic is demanding. A multiple of roughly 10 times on $190–200 billion of 2028 revenue would imply a valuation around $2 trillion, which is exactly the scenario Aleph Investments head David Merkel questions. He said a $2 trillion Anthropic valuation could happen, but asked whether AI really delivers enough extra productivity to make it sustainable.

Palantir, Cloudflare and SpaceX Offer Different Benchmark Lenses

Investors are not working from a single comparable. Palantir trades at 53 times expected current-year revenue, making it an AI-growth reference. Cloudflare, a fast-growing software and infrastructure business, and SpaceX both trade at 41.6 times expected 2026 revenue, according to LSEG data. SpaceX is also valued partly on future scale rather than current financial profile.

Blending those peers is complicated. Palantir's multiple is AI-heavy, Cloudflare's is infrastructure-heavy, and SpaceX's is unusually forward-looking. Anthropic's heavy infrastructure spending and not-yet-mature margin profile mean none of the three is a perfect proxy, but together they give bankers a way to anchor the IPO discussion.

The Margin Bet Is the Real Variable

The valuation rests on an assumption that training and inference become more efficient as technology improves, while staff and other operating costs shrink as a share of revenue. That is plausible for a company with Anthropic's current growth, but it is still a forecast. The moment the 2028 target looks less credible, the multiples now being discussed would have to come down.

What the 2028-Based Pricing Means for IPO Investors

For institutional investors and the professionals advising them, the practical questions are tied directly to the figures in the report.

• Test the 2028 revenue target of $190–200 billion against the disclosed path: a run rate of about $9 billion at end-2025, above $47 billion by May, and second-quarter 2026 revenue projected at least $10.9 billion. Demand the specific assumptions that close that gap.
• Use the stated peer multiples with caution: Palantir at 53 times expected current-year revenue and Cloudflare/SpaceX at 41.6 times expected 2026 revenue are different business models. Adjust for Anthropic's heavier spending on GPUs, training and inference before applying them.
• Track whether Anthropic actually delivers its projected first quarterly operating profit of $559 million in Q2 2026; that is an early test of whether costs are becoming a smaller share of revenue as promised.
• At the upcoming analyst day, compare the 2028 revenue target with the peer-group framework and press for the margin and infrastructure cost assumptions behind the long-dated multiple.