How the Quaest Poll Reshaped the Lula–Flávio Race

A Quaest poll released on Monday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still ahead in the first round of Brazil's presidential race, but the underlying electorate is shifting toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula holds 36% to Flávio's 31% in the opening vote, yet in a simulated second round Flávio edges ahead by 42% to 40%, inside the poll's two-point margin of error.

The move is strongest among self-described independent voters, the group outside the Lula-Bolsonaro polarization. Flávio leads that bloc 36% to 26%, a ten-point advantage. Quaest director Felipe Nunes argues that if the two core coalitions remain calcified, independents will decide the election and Flávio is now consolidating exactly that group.

Regionally, Flávio has turned a two-point deficit in the Southeast from early August into a 47% to 31% lead. The Southeast is the largest electoral prize, containing 42% of Brazil's voters, while Lula remains dominant only in the Northeast, at 60% to 28%. Among income groups, Lula leads the poorest voters earning up to two minimum wages by 51% to 32%, but Flávio is ahead 46% to 36% among those earning two to five minimum wages.

Nunes describes Lula's 50% government approval as a central obstacle, calling it unprecedented for an incumbent seeking re-election to fail to improve approval during the campaign. The poll also shows Flávio gaining ground among women, a group once a core source of rejection for the Bolsonaro family. Still, 54% of voters expect Lula to win, against 31% for Flávio, while fear of continuing Lula's government at 44% now statistically ties with fear of a Bolsonaro return at 42%.

Why Independent Voters and the Southeast Are Slipping Away from Lula

Independent Voters Are Deciding a Calcified Contest

The second-round numbers describe a race frozen at its core: 42% for Flávio, 40% for Lula, with both candidates carrying 55% rejection. The poll's key signal is that voters outside the polarization now break 36% to 26% for Flávio. That ten-point gap matters because neither coalition appears to be converting loyalists from the other side; if the calcified pattern holds, small swings among independents are worth more than base mobilization.

The Southeast's Electoral Weight and the Income Split

Flávio's rise is anchored in the Southeast, which holds 42% of the national electorate. A two-point deficit at the start of August has become a 16-point lead, 47% to 31%. Lula's Northeast advantage, 60% to 28%, is larger in percentage terms but concentrated in a smaller electoral bloc. The income breakdown adds a warning for Lula: among voters earning two to five minimum wages, a group Nunes says benefited from current economic policies, Flávio leads 46% to 36%. That suggests economic support from those policies is not automatically translating into re-election support in the middle-income segment.

Lula's Approval Problem and the Neutralization of Fear

Fifty percent approval is the core constraint in Nunes's reading. The first-round gap has narrowed to five points, the smallest in Quaest's series, and the pollster stresses that it is historically unusual for an incumbent seeking re-election not to improve approval during a campaign. The fear variable has moved against Lula: 44% now fear continuation of the current government, up from 38% in July, while 42% fear a Bolsonaro return—a statistical tie. In other words, a re-election argument based on the risk of returning the Bolsonaro family to power no longer gives Lula a clear advantage.

Flávio's Low Ceiling and Lula's Unused Reserve

The potential-vote figures show asymmetric room for growth. Flávio's 42% is one point below the 43% who say they could vote for him, suggesting he is near his ceiling. Lula has 40% in the second round but 45% say they could vote for him, leaving an unused reserve of five points. That reserve is not evenly distributed; it sits in the same audiences now trending toward Flávio—independents, middle-income voters and women, where Flávio reached 38% in a second-round scenario despite women having been a core rejection group for the Bolsonaro family after the pandemic and gun policy debates.

What the Numbers Signal for Both Campaigns in the Final Stretch

The poll gives each campaign a specific numerical target. Lula still has more theoretical room to grow than Flávio, but his growth depends on reversing the independent-voter and middle-income shifts. Flávio is closer to his ceiling, making defense of the Southeast and the independent lead the more realistic path.

  • For Lula's campaign: the clearest conversion opportunity is among independent voters, where he trails 26% to 36%, and the two-to-five minimum wage band, where he trails 36% to 46%. The fear argument has weakened: fear of a Bolsonaro return is 42%, statistically level with the 44% who fear continuing the current government.
  • For Flávio's campaign: with 42% support against a 43% potential-vote ceiling, there is little room to expand by persuasion. The strategic priority is holding the Southeast at 47% to 31% and preserving the ten-point independent lead, rather than trying to crack Lula's 51% to 32% advantage among the poorest voters.
  • For parties and donors: the race now turns on whether the next Quaest round confirms the independent shift as a durable consolidation. A durable Flávio lead among independents would force Lula to redirect resources from base mobilization to persuasion in the Southeast and the middle-income band.