Daimler Truck Bets on H2 Recovery as US Demand Offsets Tariff Blow

Q2 Profits Slump but North America Provides a Lifeline

Daimler Truck’s second-quarter net income plunged 48 percent to €128 million, as lingering tariffs on imported vehicles continued to bite. Revenue edged up 5 percent to about €12.3 billion, but industrial operating profit (Ebit) fell 9 percent to €360 million — and dropped 20 percent when financial services are stripped out. The manufacturer sold 86,707 trucks and buses, an 8 percent increase, yet the bottom line was heavily weighed down by tariff costs.

Even so, the Leinfelden-based Dax group sees a turning point. Order intake jumped 27 percent, driven almost entirely by North America, where demand has “strongly recovered since the beginning of the year,” according to CFO Eva Scherer. The production program is virtually fully booked for the second half, and the recent recognition of US value-added content is expected to significantly lower the tariff burden from the third quarter onward, leading management to raise its full-year outlook.

On the same day, Daimler Truck announced plans to build its largest-ever US plant, with construction starting late this year and production targeted for 2029. The company is still evaluating multiple sites. CEO Karin Rådström said the strong North American performance and the prospect of higher sales volumes and reduced tariff exposure “reinforce our decision to raise our forecast for the full year.”

Tariff Relief and a New US Plant Fuel Optimism

North America’s Demand Rebound and Order Pipeline

The 27 percent surge in global orders masks an almost exclusively North American story. Management noted that the US market has seen a sharp recovery, and Daimler Truck’s customer structure — skewed toward large fleets — allows it to capture that upswing quickly. The order book is now all but full for the second half, a clear signal that underlying demand is solid and that the second-quarter profit dip is more a tariff-induced timing issue than a demand problem. The decision to build a new, even larger US facility reinforces the long-term bet on this market.

Easing Tariff Pressure—Why H2 Will Look Different

Tariffs were the single biggest drag on profitability in Q2. However, the group now benefits from rules that recognize more of its US value-added content, which will mechanically reduce the tariff bill on future shipments. CFO Scherer explicitly stated that the second quarter “really represents a turning point” and that the positive effects — not yet visible in the Q2 numbers — will start showing from Q3. This is the chief reason behind the upgraded annual forecast. If trade policy stays on its current trajectory, the tariff headwind should continue to ease, but any sudden shift in US trade rules remains a wildcard.

Cost Down Europe: Progress and Workforce Pain

While the US engine revs up, Europe remains a restructuring story. The “Cost Down Europe” program, launched last year, targets more than €1 billion in permanent cost savings by 2030. So far, the company has realised roughly €100 million, with another €150 million planned this year — about a quarter of the overall goal roughly 18 months in. The program will result in around 5,000 job cuts in Germany, primarily at the Mercedes-Benz truck brand, and similar savings measures are being implemented in North America. Management says the initiative is on track, but the social and operational friction of such a large-scale redundancy program may weigh on execution.

What the Turnaround Means for Investors and the Industry

For investors and industry observers, the narrative comes down to a handful of concrete checkpoints:

• H2 earnings as the moment of truth: Management expects tariff improvements to flow into the P&L from the third quarter. The next two quarterly reports will reveal whether margins recover as forecast — and whether the upgraded guidance is achievable.
• North American order growth: The 27 percent spike in orders, predominantly from the US, is a strong leading indicator. Watch for any signs of cooling in fleet investment, particularly if interest rates or fuel costs move unexpectedly.
• New plant timeline and capex: The US factory is a 2029 story, but investors should monitor capital expenditure guidance and site selection in the coming months. The project signals deep commitment to the US market but will tie up cash for years.
• Cost-cutting execution risk: The “Cost Down Europe” program is on plan, but 5,000 job cuts in a unionised environment can lead to operational disruption or one-off charges. The 2026 savings target of €150 million will be a litmus test for management’s ability to deliver while maintaining morale.