Renner Cuts 2026 Revenue Guidance After World Cup Streaming and Betting Keep Shoppers Home

Renner Slashes 2026 Revenue Growth Target to 4-8% as Digital Distractions Empty Stores

Lojas Renner has become the first major Brazilian fashion retailer to cut its 2026 sales outlook, slashing its revenue growth forecast to between 4% and 8% from an earlier 9-13% range. The revision came as the company reported a disappointing 0.5% increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, well below the 7.8% posted by Riachuelo and 4.1% by C&A, even though all three chains cited the World Cup as a drag on store traffic.

In an interview, Renner CEO Fabio Faccio pinned much of the blame on a new consumer behaviour pattern driven by free streaming and mobile sports betting. “This World Cup behaved very differently from all the others,” he said. “Normally, traffic drops only on days Brazil plays. This time we saw a reduction throughout the entire tournament because streaming on the phone and the expansion of betting meant everyone followed every match.” The executive said the sheer number of games and teams kept shoppers at home far longer than anticipated.

The World Cup was not the only factor. High interest rates, persistent inflation, rising household debt and a recent government decision to eliminate import duties on international purchases of up to US$50 all eroded consumers’ willingness to spend in physical stores. Despite these pressures, Renner posted a record gross margin of 57.5% for a second quarter, with adjusted net profit up 8% to R$397.3 million, showing operational discipline remained intact.

Investors reacted sharply, sending Renner shares down more than 11% in early trading on Friday, the largest Ibovespa fall. The drop reflects a broader question: is the sales slowdown a temporary post-Cup hangover or a sign of deeper structural challenges?

Why Renner's Same-Store Sales Stumbled While Rivals Grew Faster

The Same-Store Sales Gap: Renner vs. Riachuelo and C&A

While all large fashion retailers noted that the World Cup hurt foot traffic, the pain was far from evenly distributed. Riachuelo grew same-store sales by 7.8% and said excluding the Cup effect growth would have topped 10%. C&A managed 4.1%, aided by a stronger winter collection. Renner’s 0.5% stands out as a clear underperformance. Analysts at Safra called the number “disappointing” compared to peers. It suggests Renner was either more exposed to the shifting consumer habits or lacked the product momentum to offset the deficit during the tournament.

World Cup Magnified Preexisting Headwinds

The free streaming and betting effect was a very visible disruption, but it alone does not explain a 4 percentage-point guidance cut. The company acknowledged that the expected rapid decline in the Selic rate did not materialise—optimists now see it at 13.75% by year-end, not 12%. Inflation stayed above internal forecasts, household debt continued to rise and the government’s decision to zero import taxes on sub-$50 purchases gave international e-commerce platforms a competitiveness edge. The Cup simply amplified a consumer that was already financially stretched and increasingly lured by online alternatives.

Expansion Plans Face a Tougher Demand Environment

Despite the guidance cut, Renner kept all medium- and long-term targets and plans to open 50 to 60 stores this year, 19 of which are already operating. The CEO insisted the Cup was an exceptional event and that the group’s model remains solid. However, the second-half outlook is challenging: July has already started weaker for apparel retail, according to Itaú BBA, and the bank calculates that Renner will need to accelerate same-store sales to around 5.5% growth in H2 just to hit the bottom of the new guidance. The combination of a heavy investment programme and softening demand will test the company’s execution in the coming months.

What the Guidance Cut Means for Investors and the Brazilian Retail Sector

• Watch July and August sales data closely: Renner needs a sharp acceleration in same-store sales in the second half to meet the 4-8% target. Industry reports pointing to a weak July make third-quarter earnings a critical checkpoint.
• Compare Renner’s SSS trend with Riachuelo and C&A: If the gap persists, it may indicate a more structural loss of market share rather than a one-off Cup shock.
• Monitor the impact of zero import tariffs: The tax exemption on international purchases up to US$50 is a structural headwind for domestic fashion retailers, shifting demand to platforms like Shein and Shopee. How Renner adapts its omnichannel strategy to compete will be crucial.
• Note that the next men’s World Cup is not until 2030: The streaming-and-betting distraction will not repeat in the near term, so any continued weakness in 2027 would be a clear signal of underlying problems unrelated to the tournament.