Trenitalia Orders €2 Billion in Hitachi Trains to Take On Eurostar on Paris-London Route

Trenitalia Bets €2bn on Hitachi for Paris-London Link

Trenitalia France, a subsidiary of the Italian state rail group FS, has ordered 19 high-speed trains from Japanese-owned manufacturer Hitachi for approximately €2 billion. The deal, announced on Friday, will see nine trains replace the leased rolling stock currently operated on the Paris-Marseille and Paris-Milan routes, while the remaining ten are earmarked for a planned Paris-London service the company says it will launch in 2029.

The order is being financed with the support of US investment fund Certares, which will take a minority stake in Trenitalia France in exchange for funding the manufacture, long-term maintenance, and technical support of the new fleet. The operator, which has racked up cumulative losses of €150 million since entering the French market in 2021, is banking on the cross-Channel link to turn its performance around.

The new Frecciarossa 1000 trains will be single-deck, a design choice necessary to navigate the Channel Tunnel’s safety requirements, unlike the double-deck TGV M units that SNCF will soon deploy. Maintenance will be carried out at a new 80 million‑euro depot currently under construction in Maisons‑Alfort Pompadour, near Paris, which is expected to house up to 25 trainsets by late 2029.

Gianpiero Strisciuglio, CEO of FS, described the Paris-London line as a “central project in our vision of the ‘Metro of Europe’, an integrated high-speed network that will increasingly connect Europe’s major cities,” underlining the strategic ambition behind the order.

Why This Order Reshapes the European Rail and Manufacturing Map

A New Competitive Front on the Cross-Channel Route

Eurostar has held a near‑monopoly on high‑speed passenger rail between London and Paris since the service began. Trenitalia’s confirmed 2029 entry, backed by €2 billion in new rolling stock, represents the most serious threat to that position in years. With a fleet of ten dedicated trains, the Italian operator could add significant capacity on a route that historically commands premium fares, potentially triggering price competition once service begins – although the exact operating model and timetable remain under development. The move mirrors Italo’s expansion into Germany, signalling that state‑backed Italian rail groups are prepared to invest heavily abroad despite early‑stage losses.

The Certares Deal: A Financial Lifeline for a Loss‑Making Unit

Trenitalia France’s four‑year cumulative loss of €150 million raises questions about the viability of its French expansion. The involvement of Certares, a US fund specialising in travel and mobility investments, brings in external discipline and risk‑sharing. By taking a minority stake, Certares ties its returns to the success of the cross‑Channel venture while allowing FS to retain control. The structure, which bundles train procurement with long‑term service agreements, suggests a project‑finance mindset: investors are betting that the London route’s traffic volumes and yields can eventually cover the capital outlay and generate a return.

The European Train Manufacturing Oligopoly Tightens

The Hitachi order is the latest illustration of how high‑speed rail procurement in Europe is consolidating around three players: Alstom, Siemens, and Hitachi. Just weeks earlier, Italo chose Siemens – not Alstom, its historical supplier – for a 26‑train order worth €3.6 billion for its German launch. Trenitalia’s decision to hand the €2 billion contract to Hitachi’s Italian factories (the former AnsaldoBreda sites in Pistoia and Naples) deepens the divisions. Alstom, which designed France’s TGV and supplied Italo’s first fleet, is now conspicuously missing from the two latest big Italian operator orders, raising concerns about its market share in the high‑speed segment beyond SNCF and a handful of international clients.

Operational Hurdles: Tunnel Compatibility and Depot Readiness

Single‑deck rolling stock is a non‑negotiable requirement for Channel Tunnel operations, and the Frecciarossa 1000 platform has already been certified for cross‑border use. Still, integrating a new operator onto the highly regulated Eurotunnel infrastructure, meeting UK border and security protocols, and achieving competitive journey times will be challenging. The new Maisons‑Alfort depot, while strategically located near Paris, will not be ready until late 2029, meaning Trenitalia must execute the entire construction and commissioning timeline without delay to meet its launch date.

What Eurostar, Certares and the Oligopoly Need to Know

• For Eurostar: The operator must factor a credible new entrant into its 2029‑30 capacity and pricing plans. Monitoring Trenitalia’s service design and ticket pricing will be essential, as the addition of 10 daily‑service‑capable trains could increase channel‑crossing high‑speed supply by a double‑digit percentage, pressuring yields.
• For Certares and FS: The minority‑stake model shifts performance risk onto the partners. Investors should track Trenitalia France’s path to break‑even; success on London would validate the “Metro of Europe” concept and may lead to further external capital infusions, while failure could trigger write‑downs on Certares’ position and renewed questions over FS’s appetite for loss‑making international ventures.
• For Hitachi Rail: The €2 billion order secures multi‑year work at the Italian plants and reinforces the Frecciarossa 1000 as a European high‑speed standard. The included long‑term maintenance deal adds recurring revenue. The manufacturer will need to ensure on‑time delivery and reliability to convert this win into future tenders as state operators increasingly look beyond national champions.
• For Alstom: The back‑to‑back losses of Italo and Trenitalia contracts to Siemens and Hitachi signal a competitive vulnerability in the open‑access operator segment. The company may need to reassess its product offering and commercial approach to win orders from non‑incumbent carriers, especially as liberalisation spreads across Europe.
• For policymakers and passengers: The 2029 London‑Paris link promises greater choice and potentially lower fares on one of Europe’s most lucrative corridors. Regulators on both sides of the Channel will need to ensure fair access to the tunnel and stations, while the development strengthens the case for further integration of Europe’s high‑speed networks, though it also raises questions about state subsidies flowing into cross‑border competition.