Latvia’s Super Tucano Study and the Drone Incidents That Triggered It

Latvia is examining Embraer’s A-29 Super Tucano as a possible counter-drone layer for Baltic airspace. The idea has been pushed publicly by the outgoing commander of the Latvian Air Force, Colonel Viesturs Masulis, who argues the turboprop should be treated as a dedicated air-defense asset against slow-moving unmanned aerial systems, not simply as a conventional light attack aircraft. More than one billion euros has already been allocated to air defense, and Latvian authorities have contacted manufacturers for detailed cost and delivery estimates. A formal analysis and action plan is expected once those figures arrive.

The interest follows incidents in which Ukrainian attack drones, disrupted by Russian electronic warfare, crashed on Latvian territory, damaged infrastructure and set off political fallout that contributed to the resignation of a previous defense minister. Latvia’s own fixed-wing fleet is small: mainly Antonov An-2 transports, UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and a pair of ultralights. For fighter coverage, the country relies on NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission.

The A-29 Super Tucano is a single-engine turboprop built by Brazil’s Embraer and developed from the EMB-312 Tucano trainer. Powered by a Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-68 of about 1,600 shaft horsepower, it reaches roughly 590 kilometers per hour, can fly five to six hours with external tanks and carries about 1,550 kilograms of stores on five hardpoints. Its electro-optical/infrared sensor, two internal .50-caliber machine guns, and options for laser-guided rockets and precision bombs make it a flexible platform, while its low stall speed of about 80 kilometers per hour helps it match slow one-way drones more efficiently than fast jets.

The aircraft has more than 600,000 flight hours across over twenty operators, and Embraer formally added counter-unmanned aerial system operations to its mission set in November 2025. Portugal’s order for twelve A-29N aircraft gives the type its first firm European foothold and signals growing NATO interest. Whether Latvia proceeds will depend on cost, industrial participation and how the aircraft fits into existing and planned layered defenses.

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What a Super Tucano Counter-Drone Role Would Change for Riga and Embraer

Colonel Masulis’s Push Reframes the Aircraft as Air Defense, Not Just Light Attack

The outgoing commander is asking his successor to treat the Super Tucano as a persistent drone hunter, not another attack platform. That matters for Latvia because the country does not operate fighters and depends on NATO aircraft for higher-end coverage. A turboprop that can loiter near likely drone routes, operate from austere fields and match the slow speed of systems such as the Shahed or Geran would give Riga a middle layer between ground-based air defenses and fast jets. The recommendation is public, but the formal analysis has not yet been completed, so the financing and fleet size remain open.

Embraer’s A-29N Gains a Potential Second European Foothold

Portugal’s twelve-aircraft A-29N order gives Embraer a NATO-standard reference case and a template for European industrial participation. Latvia would be a smaller but strategically visible Baltic customer, strengthening the case that affordable manned turboprops can fill a specific counter-drone niche inside NATO. The November 2025 expansion of the Super Tucano’s mission set to include counter-UAS operations, plus planned AI decision aids scheduled for demonstration and delivery in the second half of 2026, shows Embraer is positioning the type for exactly this requirement.

Latvia’s Decision Will Hinge on Cost, Basing and Layered Integration

The appeal of the Super Tucano is relative, not absolute. Compared with ground-based radars, jammers, guns and missiles, it offers mobility and the ability to pursue drones beyond a fixed engagement envelope. Compared with fighters and attack helicopters, it promises lower operating cost and far longer endurance. But it remains vulnerable in high-threat airspace and carries higher unit costs than many uncrewed solutions. For Latvia, the practical question is whether the A-29 can be funded, based, maintained and connected to sensors and data links without consuming too much of the one-billion-euro air-defense envelope or undercutting other layers already planned.

Next Gates for Latvia, Embraer and Industry Teams on the A-29N Option

For defense planners and industry teams tracking Riga’s evaluation, the immediate decision points are specific:

  • The next decision gate is the formal Latvian analysis and action plan after manufacturer cost and delivery estimates arrive. No order has been placed, and more than one billion euros in allocated air-defense funding does not yet mean a signed contract.
  • Use Portugal’s A-29N order as the reference configuration. Portugal’s twelve aircraft are the first firm European and NATO-standard A-29 buy, making them the most direct template for any Latvian discussion on configuration, certification and industrial participation.
  • Require the counter-UAS package to be specified, not treated as a future option. Embraer’s November 2025 mission expansion, data-link target cueing, APKWS laser-guided rocket integration and the roughly 80-kilometer-per-hour stall-speed engagement profile are the capabilities that make the turboprop relevant against slow drones.
  • Ask whether the H2 2026 AI decision aids and counter-UAS enhancements are included in the base procurement or priced separately. Latvia’s formal analysis will likely run close to that same delivery window, so pricing and availability should be clarified in writing.
  • Benchmark the Super Tucano’s endurance and basing claims against Latvia’s own fleet reality. The five-to-six-hour endurance and austere-field capability only matter if Riga formally estimates maintenance, basing and operating costs against the current An-2 transport and UH-60 helicopter mix, and against the cost of relying on NATO fighters.
  • Position ground-based systems and uncrewed interceptors as either competitors or complementary layers in the same one-billion-euro envelope. The final configuration must show where the A-29 sits relative to those systems, not argue for the aircraft as a standalone fix.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumLatvia has not placed an order, so the near-term revenue opportunity is small and uncertain despite the one-billion-euro air-defense envelope; integration, basing and maintenance costs could still make the aircraft unaffordable.
Competitive RiskMediumThe A-29 competes with the Beechcraft AT-6 Wolverine, ground-based counter-UAS systems, fighters, helicopters and uncrewed interceptors, but the commander’s recommendation and Portugal’s A-29N order strengthen Embraer’s position.
Regulatory RiskMediumAny sale would move through NATO procurement expectations, Brazilian and potentially US export controls affecting components, and Latvian defense oversight made more sensitive by the earlier political fallout from drone incidents.
Reputation RiskMediumLatvia’s government is politically exposed after the drone crashes and previous defense minister’s resignation; a high-profile purchase that failed to counter the drone threat or revealed high-threat vulnerability could damage both Embraer and national defense credibility.
Technology DisruptionMediumCounter-UAS technology is evolving quickly, including directed-energy weapons, attritable interceptor drones and AI-enabled targeting; Embraer’s planned AI decision aids aim to keep the A-29 relevant, but future unmanned systems could erode the manned turboprop niche.
Commercial OpportunityHighA Latvian order would give Embraer a second European and NATO customer after Portugal and create a visible reference case for Baltic and smaller European air forces facing similar saturation drone threats.