Spain Ranks 18th Globally in Military Power, Keeping Significant Edge Over Rearming Morocco

Spain Maintains Clear Conventional Lead Over Morocco in 2026 Military Rankings

Spain ranks as the world’s 18th most powerful military out of 145 nations assessed in the 2026 Global Firepower (GFP) index, positioned above Egypt, Ukraine and Poland. Morocco, despite a multi-year rearmament drive that has brought advanced drones, long-range missiles, combat helicopters and sophisticated air-defence systems, sits far behind at 56th place.

The GFP index weighs over 60 factors—including personnel, land, air and naval equipment, finances, logistics and geography—to produce a Power Index score, where a lower number signals greater conventional strength. Spain’s 2026 score of 0.3247 is more than three times better than Morocco’s, reflecting advantages in air and naval power, technology, and logistical reach, even though Spain fields roughly 117,000 troops against Morocco’s 200,000. The index does not account for nuclear weapons or command quality, areas where Spain may hold further qualitative advantages.

Spain’s defence spending hit a record €23.3 billion in 2025, a 46.5% jump that, via an extraordinary €10.4 billion injection, met the NATO target of 2% of GDP for the first time. Morocco allocated some €12.3 billion to its defence industry in the same year, roughly half of Spain’s outlay but growing fast, with ambitions to become a benchmark military power in North Africa. The kingdom is motivated by Algeria’s regional rivalry, the protection of strategic infrastructure such as the Tanger Med port, and its contested claims over Spain’s Ceuta and Melilla enclaves and the Canary Islands.

Geopolitical tensions colour the picture. While Spain enjoys the backing of the EU and NATO, Washington’s attitude has shifted under President Trump, who has praised Morocco’s cooperation and sharply criticised Spain for insufficient NATO contributions. The index report notes Spain slipped one spot from 17th in 2024, while Morocco gained three places, underlining a narrowing gap that will likely drive defence policy debates in Madrid.

Why Spain’s Numerical Edge Matters—And Where Morocco’s Rearmament Is Heading

The ranking provides a snapshot of conventional combat power, but the real story lies in the trajectories of the two nations and the alliance structures that could transform a paper advantage into battlefield reality.

Where Spain’s Strength Really Sits

Spain’s edge is not in sheer troop numbers—Morocco’s army is larger—but in naval and air capabilities, logistical maturity, and the quality of deployed forces. The GFP index assigns a low Power Index partly because Spain operates modern frigates, submarines, and a capable air force with Eurofighter Typhoons. Nearly 4,000 Spanish soldiers are currently deployed on UN, EU and NATO missions, giving its forces real operational experience that raw personnel counts ignore. The country’s defence industry also benefits from close European integration, ensuring access to advanced systems and supply chains.

Morocco’s Rearmament Has Real Momentum

Morocco’s 56th place masks a determined climb: it rose three ranks in a single year on the back of purchases of armed drones, long-range missiles, attack helicopters and modern air-defence batteries. Strengthened ties with the US and growing defence cooperation with Israel have expanded its procurement options. Rabat frames its buildup as a hedge against Algeria and a tool to protect the Western Sahara territory, where it has named a new motorway after President Trump. But Spain cannot ignore the implicit threat to its own sovereign enclaves. Morocco has already shown it can exert pressure through irregular migration waves—the 60,000-strong ‘green march’ on Ceuta being a stark example—and a credible military instrument adds weight to that leverage.

The NATO Factor and the American Wildcard

On paper, NATO’s Article 5 would protect Spain in a conflict with Morocco. Yet Trump’s open hostility toward Madrid—labelling it an “terrible ally” for resisting the 5% GDP spending demand and refusing involvement in the Iran war—raises doubts about the reliability of US support. Washington’s visible favouritism toward Mohammed VI, including naming infrastructure after Trump, makes it plausible that Spain would not receive full American backing in a bilateral crisis. EU mutual defence clauses offer an alternative shield, but they have never been tested in earnest.

The Limits of the GFP Index

Importantly, the index excludes nuclear capability, so France and the UK’s true strategic weight is understated. It also ignores command-and-control quality, alliance interoperability, and morale—areas where Spain likely outperforms Morocco. These limits mean the 18th-vs-56th gap may understate or correctly portray Spain’s advantage depending on the scenario, but they confirm that in a conventional, high-intensity fight Spain would start with a decisive lead.

What the Balance of Power Means for Spanish Defence Planners

• Sustain the recruitment push. Spain has launched 11,913 new military slots to close the manpower gap with a larger Moroccan army; with a population of 49 million versus Morocco’s 38 million, the shortfall is addressable but requires consistent funding and incentive programmes.
• Lock in NATO and EU solidarity now. While the US posture is uncertain, Madrid should deepen bilateral defence agreements with key European allies—especially France, Italy and Germany—to ensure rapid reinforcement and political backing in any crisis over Ceuta, Melilla or the Canary Islands.
• Track Morocco’s system acquisitions closely. The shift toward advanced drones, long-range precision fires and layered air defence could erode Spain’s qualitative edge if left unanswered; intelligence sharing with NATO partners and investments in counter-drone and electronic warfare capabilities should be prioritised.
• Use the record defence budget wisely. The extraordinary 46.5% spending increase has brought Spain into the top 15 global defence spenders; programme managers must ensure the influx translates into faster modernisation—particularly in navy and air-force recapitalisation—rather than one-off supplements.
• Prepare for non-military pressure. Morocco’s real strength lies in hybrid tools such as migration management. Spain’s defence posture must be coupled with diplomatic and economic levers to manage tensions, including cooperation on counterterrorism and trade that gives Rabat stakes in stability.