Rare Earths Could Add R$192 Billion to Brazil’s GDP and Create 750,000 Jobs by 2050, Says Amcham Study

The R$192 Billion Projection for Brazil’s Rare Earth Sector

Brazil’s push to develop its reserves of rare earth elements and critical minerals could add R$192.1 billion to the country’s GDP and generate 750,000 new jobs by 2050, according to a study released by the American Chamber of Commerce in Brazil (Amcham Brasil). The projection covers the entire chain, from mining through processing, for minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earths.

The study maps two distinct paths. In a baseline scenario dominated by domestic capital and export of raw minerals, the cumulative GDP boost reaches R$128.7 billion with 304,000 jobs. But if the country attracts significant foreign investment and expands local processing – while feeding more of the output into its own industrial base – the impact jumps by an extra R$63.4 billion in GDP, R$32.3 billion in household consumption, and 446,000 additional jobs.

Mining states capture the largest direct gains. Pará would see a 16% increase in GDP, followed by Bahia (10.3%), Goiás (10%), Piauí (4%) and Minas Gerais (3.8%). The report shows that when processing is retained inside Brazil, industrial states such as Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Paraná also benefit, as value-added manufacturing spreads well beyond the extraction regions.

“The more we attract investments, the more we turn mineral wealth into value, technology, jobs and industrial development,” said Amcham Brasil president Abrão Neto. The analysis draws on global demand forecasts and a portfolio of planned investment projects, highlighting the nation’s potential to become a strategic supplier for the energy transition and high-tech supply chains.

Why Foreign Capital and Domestic Processing Are the Game-Changers

The Two Paths: Raw Exports vs. Industrial Upgrading

The gulf between the two scenarios is not just about money—it is about what kind of player Brazil intends to be. The first path, reliant on home-grown capital and commodity exports, leaves the country as a raw-material provider in an increasingly geopolitically contested market. The second scenario assumes international capital flows into processing plants and that Brazilian manufacturers absorb more of the output locally. That repositions the country from a dig-and-ship model to a more resilient, higher-value segment of the supply chain.

The extra R$63.4 billion does not appear automatically. It depends on attracting investors who currently face an unclear regulatory landscape in mining and processing. Legal certainty around exploration rights, environmental licensing, and tax stability would need to improve to close the gap between the two projections. Without that, the more transformative scenario remains a spreadsheet exercise.

Where the Gains Land – States and Sectors

The state-level numbers are among the most concrete in the study. Pará, already one of the poorest states by income per capita, could secure a 16% uplift in GDP if the higher-investment path materializes. That is a magnitude of change that would reshape regional economies. The surrounding industrial states—Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná—show the largest additional gains when processing is done domestically, proving that value addition does not stay confined to the mine mouth.

By sector, electrical machinery and equipment would expand by 16.7% cumulatively in the ambitious scenario, followed by extraction machinery (9.8%), automobiles (5.5%), and mechanical equipment (2.9%). Construction (4.5%) and extractive industries (4.2%) also benefit directly. This points to a genuine industrial ripple effect: rare earths are not just a mining story, they are an enabler of high-tech manufacturing that Brazil has long struggled to grow.

The Geopolitical Context: Beijing’s Grip and Washington’s Interest

The study arrives at a moment when the United States and its allies are scrambling to secure non-Chinese sources of rare earths. China’s dominance in processing—over 80% of global output—has turned these minerals into a national security concern. Brazil’s large reserves, political stability, and established mining industry make it a natural partner for Western-led efforts to diversify. The report does not name individual companies, but the strategic message is unmistakable: unlocking the R$192 billion scenario requires foreign capital, and that capital is increasingly looking for alternative supply chains. Policy choices in Brasília will determine whether Brazil captures that moment or watches the opportunity flow elsewhere.

What the Study Means for Investors, States, and Industry

• States with the largest direct gains need to prepare now. Pará (16% GDP impact) and Bahia (10.3%) will see a mining-led boom in the high-investment scenario. Streamlining licensing and building export infrastructure in those states ought to be a near-term priority for federal and state governments.
• Investors should watch indicators of policy clarity. The difference between the two scenarios—R$63.4 billion in GDP—hinges on attracting foreign capital. A new mining code or guaranteed tax treatment for rare earth processing facilities would be a signal that the higher path is achievable.
• Manufacturers in electrical equipment, machinery, and automotive should plan for domestic supply. Sectors set to grow 5-17% will need to map out sourcing strategies. If Brazil develops local rare earth processing, companies that design supply chains early could gain cost and reliability advantages over import-dependent competitors.
• Industrial states beyond the mining belt stand to gain, but only with infrastructure support. Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Paraná would see extra GDP from processing and component manufacturing. Aligning regional development funds with the emerging rare earth cluster would amplify the value capture beyond the mine.
• Geopolitical tailwinds are real but not automatic. The US and Europe are actively seeking rare earth supply outside China. Brazilian policymakers can use this leverage to negotiate technology transfer and processing know-how as part of any foreign investment approvals, raising the odds that Brazil captures the processing margin rather than just the ore export price.