Key Points
- Australian and UK universities opening branch campuses in India are attracting initial cohorts far smaller than planned, with Deakin enrolling 43 students in 2024 and Wollongong just nine.
- The weak numbers reflect regulatory timing, location disadvantages at Gift City, and competition from Indian private universities and conglomerate-backed institutions.
- The stakes are high for cash-strapped Australian universities facing an estimated A$2 billion hit from declining student visa issuances, making branch campuses a risky but potentially necessary revenue diversification play.
Why Western Universities Are Struggling to Fill Their Indian Campuses
When Deakin University and the University of Wollongong opened India's first foreign branch campuses in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City) in 2024, they were pioneers. But their initial cohorts were tiny: Deakin enrolled 43 students, Wollongong just nine. By 2025, numbers had improved only marginally, to 65 and 33 respectively, with Wollongong adding another 31 students in its 2026 intake.
The weak start is not unique to the forerunners. UNSW Sydney opened its Bengaluru campus in August 2025 with 60 students, well below its initial prediction of 200 (later revised to 100). UK universities have fared somewhat better: the University of Southampton near Delhi started with 150 students, and the University of Liverpool Bengaluru with just under 300. Both aim to reach 5,000 and 10,000 students respectively in the coming years.
The figures highlight the difficulty of building a student base in India, even as Australian universities face a sharp decline in international student visa issuances that is expected to cost public universities an estimated A$2 billion this year alone. For cash-strapped institutions, branch campuses are a strategic bet on diversification, but the early returns suggest the path to financial sustainability will be long and uncertain.
At a Glance
| Main Companies | Deakin University, University of Wollongong (UOW) First foreign universities to open branch campuses in India, at Gift City, Gujarat |
| Key Executive | Rahul Choudaha Mumbai-based researcher and consultant who conducted the enrolment analysis |
| Key Executive | Ravi Lochan Singh Managing director of a Sydney education consultancy with operations in India |
| Location | Gift City, Gujarat, India Greenfield financial precinct where foreign entities operate outside domestic regulations |
| Key Financial Figure | A$2 billion Estimated annual cost to Australian public universities from declining student visa issuances |
| Key Financial Figure | A$80 million University of Western Australia's initial investment in its Mumbai and Chennai campuses |
| Key Financial Figure | A$6.5 million Amount Wollongong has spent so far on its Gujarat campus |
| Key Regulation | University Grants Commission (UGC) Indian regulator whose accreditation list provides marketing advantage to foreign institutions |
| Key Term | Branch campus A satellite campus established by a university in a foreign country, offering its own degrees |
Where the Sides Stand
Deakin University and University of Wollongong
Position: The low enrolment figures are below expectations but reflect a deliberate strategy of gradual expansion, laying strong foundations for future growth.
Role in the story: First-mover foreign universities in India facing criticism over tiny initial cohorts
Motivation: To diversify revenue and establish a long-term presence in the world's most populous country.
Ravi Lochan Singh, education consultant
Position: The universities that established campuses in Gift City were trapped by circumstances and should not be judged on this year's intake; next September will be the real test.
Role in the story: Industry observer providing context on regulatory timing and competitive dynamics
Motivation: To explain why early enrolment figures are misleading and to highlight the structural challenges facing foreign campuses.
The Real Test for India's Foreign Branch Campuses Is Still a Year Away
Why Gift City Was Always Going to Be a Hard Sell
Deakin and Wollongong entered India through Gift City, a greenfield financial precinct outside Ahmedabad, because it allowed them to bypass accreditation by India's University Grants Commission (UGC). But that shortcut came at a cost: exclusion from the UGC's list of approved foreign institutions, which is a key marketing tool for attracting students. Meanwhile, universities that waited for UGC accreditation are opening in or near Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai—far more attractive locations for students. As Ravi Lochan Singh of a Sydney education consultancy put it, the Gift City pioneers were "trapped" by circumstances: they committed just as India finalised rules allowing foreign universities to set up anywhere in the country.
The Regulatory Clock Is Still Ticking
Some UGC-accredited campuses received final approvals only within the past month, severely hindering recruitment for the 2026 intake. This means the current enrolment figures are not a fair test of demand. Singh argues that "next September will be the real test"—once approvals are in place and marketing can ramp up. For universities still considering India, the lesson is that regulatory timing can make or break an early cohort.
Competition Is Coming From Inside India
Foreign campuses also face growing competition from Indian private universities, which are lobbying for "parity" in operating rules, and from conglomerates like Tata and Reliance Industries, which are setting up their own institutions to meet internal staffing needs. These domestic players have deep pockets, local knowledge and established brands. Singh predicts a "pretty messy" time for foreign campuses, with those linked to highly ranked home universities or able to demonstrate strong graduate employment outcomes performing best.
The Financial Stakes for Australian Universities
The branch campus experiment is unfolding against a backdrop of financial strain. Australian public universities are set to lose an estimated A$2 billion this year from declining student visa issuances. Wollongong's Gujarat campus has cost about A$6.5 million so far, with earnings of just A$26,000 in 2024 and A$398,000 in 2025. The university says it expects to recover these funds as the campus grows, but the timeline is medium to long term. UWA, which is financing its Mumbai and Chennai campuses from its own resources, expects to recoup its A$80 million investment in about five years—a more optimistic projection that hinges on reaching 100 to 200 students this year.
Leadership Turmoil Adds to the Risk
Both Deakin and Wollongong have experienced recent leadership upheavals. Deakin's vice-chancellor Iain Martin was removed in June after a short-lived proposal to cut about 140 jobs. Wollongong's chancellor Michael Still resigned a month later amid a corruption probe over the recruitment of an interim vice-chancellor to plug a A$35 million revenue drop. These disruptions raise questions about the stability of the institutions' India strategies and their ability to execute long-term plans.
What University Leaders and Investors Should Watch
The early enrolment figures for Western branch campuses in India are not a verdict on demand—they are a verdict on regulatory timing and location choices.
For university leaders and investors evaluating transnational education ventures, the Indian experiment offers several concrete lessons:
- Do not judge the market by first-year numbers. UGC accreditation delays meant some campuses could not recruit effectively for 2026. The real test will be the 2027 intake, once approvals are in place and marketing has had time to work.
- Location matters more than first-mover advantage. Gift City's regulatory shortcut came at the cost of being outside major student hubs. Campuses in or near Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai have a structural advantage.
- Financial commitment signals durability. UWA's decision to fund its campuses from its own resources, rather than outsourcing risk to partners, is seen as a sign of long-term commitment—and may attract more students and partners.
- Watch for competitive pressure from Indian conglomerates. Tata and Reliance are building their own institutions. Foreign campuses that cannot demonstrate strong graduate employment outcomes will struggle to compete.
- Monitor Wollongong's 2027 intake and UWA's enrolment trajectory. Wollongong is refining courses, reviewing fees and scholarships, and switching to rupee-denominated fees from 2027. UWA expects 100–200 students this year and aims to recoup its A$80 million investment in five years. These are the bellwethers for the sector.
Risk & Opportunity Assessment
| Commercial Risk | High | Wollongong has spent A$6.5 million on its Gujarat campus but earned only A$398,000 in 2025; Deakin and UOW face leadership turmoil and cost-cutting pressures. |
| Competitive Risk | High | Indian private universities and conglomerates like Tata and Reliance are entering the market, while UK universities in better locations are attracting larger cohorts. |
| Regulatory Risk | Medium | UGC accreditation delays hindered recruitment for 2026; Gift City campuses bypassed UGC but lost marketing advantages. |
| Reputation Risk | Medium | Tiny initial cohorts and leadership upheavals at Deakin and Wollongong could undermine confidence in their India strategies. |
| Technology Disruption | Low | The story does not involve technological disruption; it is about regulatory, competitive and financial dynamics. |
| Commercial Opportunity | Medium | India's enormous population and growing demand for higher education present a long-term opportunity, but early returns are weak and the path to profitability is uncertain. |
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