Trump: Hormuz Navigation Deal Expected Within 48 Hours as Oil Markets Await Relief

The Push for a Hormuz Truce

President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping could be struck within 48 hours, as regional and US officials prepare to announce a 60-day navigation arrangement. Speaking to reporters in Los Angeles, Trump indicated that “it could happen tomorrow or the day after” and described talks with Iran as “going really well.”

According to a report from Axios, citing two regional sources and a US official, the proposed agreement would separate inbound and outbound traffic: vessels entering the strait would use a northern lane near Iran, while outbound ships would transit waters closer to Oman in coordination with Iranian authorities. No tolls or fees would be charged during the temporary pact, and Iran and Oman would work to clear mines from a central lane that could eventually handle two-way traffic.

The prospect of a breakthrough has already calmed crude oil markets. Brent futures, the global benchmark, tumbled nearly 9% from Monday’s levels, trading around $80 a barrel on Wednesday, as the risk of a prolonged disruption receded. However, gains were capped after Yemen’s Houthi militants, backed by Iran, threatened to escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers that reroute through the northern Red Sea, a key alternative corridor during Hormuz disruptions.

Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Tuesday, confirming the involvement of the Gulf state that has acted as a mediator. While the temporary truce could normalize the flow of roughly a fifth of the world’s oil consumption that passes through Hormuz, previous US-Iran ceasefires over the strait have collapsed within weeks, leaving lasting stability far from assured.

What a 60-Day Deal Actually Changes

The Proposed Navigation Framework and Its Fragilities

The arrangement, as described by Axios, essentially creates a maritime corridor split by territory — inbound vessels using Iranian-controlled waters, outbound ships moving through Omani sea space. On the surface, this reduces the immediate friction points that triggered military confrontations. But the absence of a permanent demilitarization or third-party enforcement mechanism leaves the structure vulnerable to any new incident. The 60-day window also mirrors the last failed ceasefire, which unravelled in under a month, suggesting that trust between Washington and Tehran remains paper-thin and that both sides are using the deal to buy time rather than commit to a lasting peace.

Crude Markets: Relief Competing with Red Sea Risks

Brent’s nearly 9% weekly slide reflects the market’s heavy discounting of the tail risk of a protracted Hormuz closure. Yet the subsequent uptick on Wednesday after Houthi threats underscores a dual geopolitical pressure: while Hormuz may reopen, the alternative route via the Red Sea is now under direct threat. The Houthi statement specifically targeting Saudi tankers rerouting north raises the spectre of a simultaneous bottleneck — if Hormuz reopens but Red Sea passages become too dangerous, the net effect on global oil supply chains could still be severely disruptive. Traders are therefore pricing not just a single chokepoint but a multi-front shipping crisis.

Iran’s Diplomatic Calculus Behind Closed Doors

Publicly, Tehran maintains a harsh posture, but Axios’s report and separate diplomatic sources indicate a private softening. The possibility that Iran would allow European nations to clear mines from the strait — a significant climbdown from its earlier declarations of sovereignty over the waterway — suggests a pragmatic recognition that sustained economic and military pressure has made a temporary breathing space necessary. This concession, if confirmed, would be a concrete bargaining chip that could also give European governments a stake in upholding the truce, potentially adding a layer of international oversight that was absent in previous failed attempts.

What Energy Markets and Shippers Should Watch Now

• Oil traders and shippers: If a deal is announced, expect Brent to test levels below $78 in the short term, but keep positions sensitive to the Houthi threat — any successful attack on a Saudi tanker could quickly add $3-$5 of risk premium back to the benchmark.
• Tanker operators and charterers: Even with a 60-day Hormuz pact, the Red Sea route diversion risk remains. Reassess voyage insurance costs and contingency plans for vessels that would normally use the Bab el-Mandeb strait; the Houthi warning explicitly targets cargoes heading north, so the southern Red Sea may remain a high-threat zone.
• Commercial oil buyers and refineries: The mine-clearing timetable for the central lane is the real metric for a durable reopening. Monitor official statements from Oman and any European naval involvement, as progress there will determine whether the truce is extended beyond 60 days — and thus whether long-term crude procurement strategies can revert to pre-crisis norms.
• Energy companies with Iranian exposure: The reported concession on mine clearance by European partners could, if verified, signal a rare diplomatic opening. This may create a brief window for European firms to re-engage in technical discussions without violating sanctions, but any engagement should be conditional on a verified UN or multilateral mandate to avoid legal and reputational risk.