US-Venezuela Oil Deal: 65 Billion Barrels, a 35% Stake and Big Execution Doubts

The US-Venezuela Oil Agreement: Terms, Players and Price Politics

President Donald Trump announced that the United States has secured what he called 'predominant control' over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil under a new agreement with Caracas. In a Truth Social post, he said the arrangement involved private business and required no expenditure by American taxpayers, and he described it as a deal that would more than double US oil reserves and eventually bring down gasoline prices. The US side was represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez negotiated for Caracas.

The structure reported by The Wall Street Journal is not a straightforward nationalization or takeover. Washington would acquire a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, a company controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, and through it exposure to 17 of Venezuela's most prospective oil fields. The agreement also gives the US the right to purchase 20% of the crude produced at cost, with Venezuela waiving its 34% corporate income tax on those sales. Rodriguez said the 25-year accord would generate about $209 billion for Venezuela, and that at a $65-per-barrel price the state treasury would receive $19 for each barrel sold.

No major US oil company has publicly announced an investment plan for Venezuela, according to the Journal, leaving the US government — with the State Department leading and the Pentagon providing financial support — as the effective investor for now. The announcement comes amid sharp US gasoline price inflation: Trading Economics data cited in the article put the average gallon near $3.50 at the end of August, up from below $1.80 in January, after the US-Israel operation against Iran that began on 28 February. Trump said Washington has already collected as much as $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales since January, a period that followed the US military operation in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro, as described in the article.

Caracas is also preparing exploration and production licences for foreign companies, CNBC reported. But Russian and Latin America specialists quoted by Vedomosti cautioned that signing a deal is not the same as restarting large-scale production. Rebuilding Venezuela's deteriorated oil industry would require roughly $100 billion, and the country remains under sanctions, they said.

Why the Venezuela Oil Deal Is Easier to Announce Than to Execute

What Washington Is Actually Buying

The deal looks less like direct US ownership of oil reserves than a state-backed equity and offtake arrangement. The 35% stake is described as passive, the vehicle is a private company controlled by Betancourt, and the most concrete commercial benefit is access to crude at production cost rather than market price. The absence of any announced investment by ExxonMobil, Chevron or other majors suggests the administration is stepping in because private capital alone will not accept the political and operational risk. That is a meaningful distinction: the US may gain influence and discounted barrels, but it is also taking exposure to a project that needs decades of rehabilitation.

Why Gasoline Prices Are the Political Engine

The claim that the agreement will materially lower US gasoline prices is a long-term promise, not a near-term supply event. The US retail price has climbed from under $1.80 a gallon in January to about $3.50 by late August after the joint US-Israel operation against Iran, and Gallup polling cited in the article shows high prices and expensive gasoline rank second and third among Americans' economic worries. Access to Venezuelan crude at cost could eventually help, but only if Venezuela's fields are actually brought back online. In the short run, US pump prices will continue to be shaped by Middle East conflict risk and global market conditions far more than by this agreement.

The $100 Billion Rebuilding Problem

Both experts quoted in the article, Dmitry Rosenthal of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Latin America and energy analyst Kirill Rodionov, identify the same bottleneck: Venezuela's oil industry has collapsed under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, with output down roughly threefold from its peak, and recovery requires about $100 billion in investment, imported technology and the return of international oilfield-service companies. Rosenthal notes that Caracas has begun drafting a legal framework that would allow foreign firms to operate independently for the first time in years, rather than only through a partnership with state company PDVSA. Rodionov argues that with sanctions relief, lower taxes and the return of service companies, Venezuela could approach 1990s production levels only by the start of the 2030s — a timeline that underlines how little the deal changes immediately.

Who Gains and What Has to Be True

The clearest potential winners are the US government, which would obtain preferential crude access and regional leverage, and the Venezuelan interim government, which is promised substantial revenue and a path out of isolation. Betancourt's North American Blue Energy Partners gains a powerful partner but also carries the burden of delivering on the fields. US oil companies gain a possible future opening, though they have not committed. For the commercial logic to work, several conditions must be met: sanctions must be relaxed enough to allow financing and exports, the final legal text must confirm the 35% stake and purchase rights, and the Pentagon's financial support must be reconciled with the claim that taxpayers are not funding the arrangement.

What Energy Companies, Investors and Fuel Buyers Should Verify Next

• For refiners and crude traders: verify whether the 20% at-cost purchase right appears in the final agreement and in Venezuelan cargo schedules; if operational, it would create a discounted crude stream, but volumes depend entirely on restarting the 17 named fields.
• For companies considering Venezuelan entry: treat the reported new exploration and production licences as conditional until Caracas publishes the legal framework allowing foreign operators to work without a compulsory PDVSA partnership.
• For fleet operators and fuel-intensive businesses: do not build near-term budgets around lower US pump prices; the deal's production payoff is years away and the current $3.50-per-gallon level remains sensitive to the Iran conflict.
• For investors in oil-exposed assets: the decisive test is whether a major US oil company commits capital to Venezuela; the article notes none has, and until one does, the agreement remains a government-led framework rather than a functioning supply project.
• For policy and compliance teams: track whether sanctions exemptions or waivers are formalised; the deal's export volumes, tax waiver and Pentagon financial role cannot be operationalised under the existing restrictions described in the article.