Why the US Says Middle East Crude Exports Are Back to Normal

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels and have been roughly normal for a week, crediting a US-military-coordinated plan with Gulf allies for moving crude through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said regional countries are diverting part of their exports through pipelines and other capacity to bypass the key waterway.

Independent shipping data tells a different story. Kpler counted only 84 vessels through Hormuz last week, including nine on Sunday, compared with more than 100 transits per day before the war. JPMorgan Chase estimates the actual flow at closer to four million barrels per day, not the nine million Wright described. The Energy Department says it has better data than private tracking services, but the figures are hard to reconcile.

Some rerouting is real: Saudi Arabia's East West Pipeline alone has rerouted more than five million barrels per day toward the Red Sea. Yet the Red Sea remains exposed at Bab al Mandab, where Houthi threats persist, and only six vessels passed through Hormuz on Monday. Shadow-fleet and transponder-off activity further complicates the picture.

What Tanker Tracking and Pipeline Data Reveal About Hormuz Flows

Why Kpler, JPMorgan and RBC See a Different Market

Kpler analyst Matt Smith says it is impossible to reconcile what the tracking data shows with Wright's statement. Kpler combines satellite imagery with ship transponder data to capture so-called shadow traffic, and it still found far fewer transits than the pre-war baseline. JPMorgan Chase estimates Hormuz flows near four million barrels per day, while RBC's Helima Croft says the market is "not even close to normal" but that the administration has successfully sold its market narrative for six months. Relatively low oil prices may owe more to falling demand and a drawdown of large Chinese inventories than to true supply normalization.

What the East West Pipeline Can and Cannot Prove

Saudi Arabia's East West Pipeline has diverted more than five million barrels per day to the Red Sea, which makes Wright's claim that five to seven million barrels per day bypass Hormuz credible. But that does not validate his Hormuz transit numbers. Total regional exports can remain elevated through pipeline rerouting even while the strait itself operates below normal. The Red Sea route still depends on Bab al Mandab, where Houthi attacks are a known risk and traffic has been only nearly normal in recent weeks.

The Shadow Fleet Distorts Any “Normal” Comparison

Of the 84 vessels that passed through Hormuz last week, 17 belonged to the shadow fleet and 10 carried sanctioned cargo, according to Windward Intelligence. Many other vessels switch off transponders to avoid detection. This means broad export definitions can hide the real security and sanctions problem. Iran has attacked 64 vessels passing through the strait, killing 17 and injuring 35 mariners, leaving many owners and operators reluctant to send ships through the area.

What This Data Dispute Means for Energy Buyers and Analysts

For traders, energy buyers and analysts, the dispute is less about a single week than about which data to trust when assessing Middle East supply.

  • Treat the 15–20 million barrel per day Gulf export claim as a political upper bound, not verified supply. Kpler counted only 84 transits last week, and JPMorgan estimates Hormuz flows near four million barrels per day.
  • Separate the strait from total Gulf exports. Saudi Arabia's East West Pipeline alone moves more than five million barrels per day to the Red Sea, so any supply assessment must cover both Hormuz and Bab al Mandab.
  • Watch daily transit counts and shadow-fleet share. Last Monday saw six transits, and 27 of the 84 weekly vessels were shadow-fleet or sanctions-linked, which distorts "normal" flow comparisons.
  • Assume war-risk and insurance premiums remain elevated while Iran's attacks continue: 64 vessels attacked, 17 mariners killed and 35 injured, with many owners still refusing to send ships through the strait.
  • Ask for transit-level Hormuz data rather than broad "exports from the Arabian Gulf" when evaluating US Energy Department briefings, because the two definitions lead to different conclusions.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskHighIf actual Hormuz flows are closer to Kpler/JPMorgan's four million barrels per day than the claimed nine million, global crude balances remain tighter than official statements suggest, keeping price and supply-risk premia alive for buyers and shipping.
Competitive RiskMediumExporters that can use pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia via the East West Pipeline's more than five million barrels per day capacity, gain relative to those reliant on Hormuz transits; tanker owners avoiding the strait lose cargo opportunities.
Regulatory RiskMediumVisible shadow-fleet activity—17 of 84 vessels and 10 sanctions-linked cargoes—could attract stricter sanctions enforcement, while official US claims face scrutiny from market analysts.
Reputation RiskHighEnergy Department statements that cannot be reconciled with Kpler, JPMorgan and RBC data risk undermining trust in official market assessments.
Technology DisruptionLowSatellite and AIS tracking services expose the gap in official data, but the underlying oil transport infrastructure is not being displaced.
Commercial OpportunityMediumIndependent tracking firms and analysts have a market for their data as official claims are disputed, and pipeline capacity holders such as Saudi Arabia benefit from rerouting around Hormuz.