French Home Insurance Premiums Set to Climb as Climate Claims Mount

Climate Claims Already Hiked French Premiums by 13% – More Could Follow

French households already saw their home insurance premiums jump 13% on average this year, adding about €36 to annual bills that now stand at €310, according to a barometer from comparator Assurland.com. But the climb may not be over. Jean-Philippe Dogneton, managing director of mutual insurer Macif, warned in a radio interview on Thursday that further increases are likely as natural disasters multiply, though he insisted that ‘smoothing’ the rise over time would keep it manageable for the public.

France’s flagship safety net, the natural catastrophe surcharge (Cat Nat), currently costs households about €40 a year and covers damage from floods, earthquakes and storms. The government recently proposed reviewing the rate every five years to preserve the system’s long-term viability. However, Cat Nat does not cover wildfires—the very peril that has caused some of the most spectacular losses this summer.

Morningstar DBRS estimates total fire damage in France alone could reach €10 billion to €15 billion, with insured losses running into several billion euros. The European Commission put the overall cost of wildfires across the Mediterranean at €2.5 billion. At Macif alone, around fifty houses have been completely destroyed and 2,200 claims filed since the start of the summer.

Dogneton acknowledged that the era is one of worsening climate damage. He urged that premiums be allowed to rise gradually rather than in sharp spikes, stressing that even with an increase the Cat Nat contribution would remain ‘tenable’ for policyholders.

Why the Cat Nat System Leaves Wildfire Victims and Insurers Exposed

How the Cat Nat Exclusion for Wildfires Shifts the Burden

The French Cat Nat regime was designed decades ago around the country’s dominant natural hazards—flooding, earthquakes and severe storms. Wildfires, though statistically rarer at the time, were left out. Today they represent a rapidly growing threat, but the state-backed pooling mechanism does not absorb the cost. That means the full weight of wildfire claims falls directly on insurers’ balance sheets, pressuring their underwriting results and inevitably feeding through to base premiums. Policyholders are therefore facing a double whammy: higher premiums now, and the possibility that the Cat Nat surcharge itself will be raised in the future to reflect an expanded list of covered events.

The Government’s Five-Year Review: Timely But Not Immediate

In June, the Observatoire de l’assurabilité concluded that the French insurance system remains fundamentally sound, but the government responded by proposing that the Cat Nat surcharge rate be re-examined every five years. While this injects a welcome dose of flexibility, it does not address the immediate gap for uninsured wildfire losses. Any adjustment would likely take years to implement, leaving insurers and their customers to navigate a transitional period of heightened risk with the current tariff structure.

Why Macif’s Call to ‘Smooth’ Increases Is a Signal to the Market

Jean-Philippe Dogneton’s comments are more than a defensive interview. As head of one of France’s largest mutual insurers, he is signalling that the industry will seek to spread cost increases over a longer horizon rather than impose sudden jumps. This smoothing strategy is meant to preserve affordability and public trust, but it also implies that premium hikes are now baked into insurers’ forward-looking assessments. The real question is whether a gradual approach can keep pace with the accelerating frequency of extreme events—or whether a structural repricing of climate risk is already overdue.

What the Prospect of Higher Premiums Means for Households and Insurers

• Households should expect a further rise in home insurance premiums beyond the 13% already measured this year. Macif’s director indicated the industry can absorb the increase if it is spread over time, but precise amounts remain unknown.
• Wildfires are typically covered under the standard fire guarantee in a home policy, not the Cat Nat surcharge. If you live in a high-risk area, review your policy wording to confirm wildfire coverage limits and consider supplemental protection where necessary.
• The government’s plan to review the Cat Nat rate every five years could mean the current €40 annual contribution will eventually rise. No immediate change is expected, but households should budget for a gradual increase in this line item over the medium term.
• For insurers, the summer 2026 losses—estimated in billions of euros—underscore the urgency of repricing exposure. Expect the industry to advocate for higher premiums while the public debate will focus on whether Cat Nat should be expanded to cover wildfires, a move that would ultimately be funded by policyholders.