July Cass Freight Index: Wider Shipment Decline, Higher Expenditures

The Cass Freight Index for July painted a divided picture of the North American freight market: physical demand weakened while freight spending stayed elevated. The shipments component came in at 0.983, down 4.8% compared with July 2025 and 2.6% below June on a seasonally adjusted basis. That marked the second straight monthly decline after four consecutive monthly gains earlier in the year.

Expenditures moved in the opposite direction, rising 9.1% year over year to 3.518. The increase followed an 11.2% annual gain in June and was driven primarily by higher rates rather than stronger activity. On a two-year stacked basis, freight spending was up 9.6%, but sequential spending fell 3.4% unadjusted and 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis after eight months of gains.

The report's author, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst Tim Denoyer, attributed the softness partly to elevated fuel prices and partly to declining capacity. He noted that the index is trucking-intensive and that rail intermodal has been taking share from trucking this year, adding pressure to the shipments measure. Citizens Bank analyst Jeff Kauffman also described the July slowdown as consistent with a normal summer lull and a rotation of shippers toward lower-cost rail intermodal.

The Cass data is widely used as a freight barometer because it is based on roughly $37 billion in paid freight expenses from hundreds of large shippers. The report anticipates that a normal seasonal pattern would put the shipments component down about 3% annually in August, before a possible pickup in September tied to back-to-school and early holiday shipping.

Why July's Cass Data Split: Rates, Modal Shift and a Supply-Led Freight Market

Rate gains are masking a volume problem

The 9.1% annual increase in expenditures alongside a 4.8% drop in shipments indicates that shippers are paying more to move less. Denoyer's commentary notes that the slowdown was mainly due to lower volumes, even as rates rose slightly. That split matters because it suggests the current freight-spending strength is not a demand story but a pricing and capacity story.

Modal shift from highway to rail is reshaping the index

Both Denoyer and Kauffman point to rail intermodal gaining freight from trucking. Because the Cass index is trucking-intensive, this shift understates total freight movement and pressures the shipments component. For shippers, the incentive is straightforward: lower total cost when fuel prices remain elevated.

The recovery remains supply-led, not demand-led

Denoyer describes the market as supply-led, with Class 8 tractor sales expected to rise above replacement levels in coming months, relieving a capacity constraint. At the same time, rising interest rates, slowing real income growth and low savings rates keep the demand outlook under pressure. The risk is that additional truck capacity arrives before freight volumes recover, which would widen the gap between shipments and available capacity and eventually weigh on rates.

Seasonal patterns may soften the signal

Kauffman cautions that summer normally brings a slowdown, especially after a period of spending driven by higher income tax refunds, World Cup-related activity and fuel prices. He expects a pickup in September as back-to-school and holiday shipping begin. That means one weak July print is not yet confirmation of a broader freight recession, but it does realign expectations after stronger spring numbers.

Freight Decision Points After the July Cass Print

  • For shippers: Separate the 9.1% annual rise in your freight spend into volume and rate components. The July Cass data shows expenditures climbed while shipments fell 4.8%, so a procurement review that treats the increase as pure demand will miss the pricing pressure coming from rate gains.
  • For truckload carriers: The projected rise in Class 8 tractor sales above replacement levels in the coming months is a capacity signal. If volumes continue their two-month sequential slide, added capacity is likely to compress truckload pricing into the autumn even before any September rebound is confirmed.
  • For rail intermodal operators: July's shipments divergence is consistent with sustained modal share gains from trucking. Use the Cass report's trucking-intensive bias to frame your pitch around total landed cost, especially on lanes where fuel surcharges are inflating highway rates.
  • For freight market analysts: Test the September pickup against the report's August seasonal benchmark of roughly a 3% annual decline. A weaker August print would be mostly seasonal, but a September failure to rebound would confirm the supply-led slowdown rather than a summer lull.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumJuly expenditures rose 9.1% annually mainly on rates while shipments fell 4.8% annually and 2.6% sequentially, squeezing shippers' freight budgets and signaling softer demand for carriers.
Competitive RiskMediumRail intermodal is gaining share from trucking this year, and the Cass index's trucking-intensive composition is understating total freight while pressuring highway volumes.
Regulatory RiskLowThe July report does not cite direct regulatory changes; the main macro policy pressures are rising interest rates and elevated fuel prices, which affect demand indirectly.
Reputation RiskLowNo specific company or index credibility issue is raised; the data itself is widely used and based on paid freight expenses.
Technology DisruptionLowThe main shift is operational—shippers moving freight from highway to rail intermodal—rather than a technological disruption.
Commercial OpportunityMediumRate gains are still supporting freight expenditures, and Class 8 tractor sales rising above replacement levels could alleviate a capacity constraint, creating opportunity for efficient carriers and intermodal providers if September demand rebounds.