Hormuz Outbound Traffic Drops 30% as Shipowners Face Sanctions-Security Dilemma

Why Hormuz Outbound Movements Fell 30% Week on Week

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains weak, with Lloyd’s List Intelligence recording an 18% week-on-week fall in total transits. The decline was heavily concentrated in outbound traffic, which dropped 30%, while inbound movements fell 6%.

Bab el-Mandeb and Suez traffic also edged lower. The Bab el-Mandeb saw 269 vessel crossings, down from 273 the previous week, and Suez transits slipped to 263 from 275. Analysts cautioned that the second consecutive decline remains within normal fluctuations, though the number of very large crude carriers using the Suez Canal increased as operators adjusted routes.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence analyst Tomer Raanan described a shuttle service pattern in which ships remain inside the Gulf before moving onward, alongside ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Many of the vessels involved are operated by ADNOC, Sinokor and Kuwait Oil Company. Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations is complicating decisions, with Lloyd’s List Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade noting that Washington and Tehran are issuing conflicting signals.

The sanctions dimension adds a separate layer: payments for safe passage could trigger U.S. Treasury OFAC sanctions, leaving owners to choose between maritime security risks and compliance exposure. Claire O’Neill McCleskey of Clarity Compliance Consulting said companies may ultimately have to decide which risk they are more willing to accept. In the Red Sea, Ambrey reported that Houthis had allegedly launched a UAV attack targeting a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan; the extent of damage was not immediately known.

The Sanctions, Security and Routing Conflict Now Facing Gulf Shipping

The Outbound Drop Points to Gulf Loading Caution

The sharp 30% fall in outbound Hormuz movements, compared with a 6% fall in inbound traffic, suggests the reluctance is concentrated at the load and departure end rather than in vessels returning to the region. If outbound tankers are avoiding or delaying departures, Gulf crude and product flows may be adjusting to shorter shuttle voyages and offshore transfers instead of full transits through the chokepoint. That is consistent with the observed ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman.

Sanctions Compliance Is Now a Second Chokepoint

For operators, the security question is no longer only physical. Richard Meade’s point about conflicting U.S.-Iran statements and Claire O’Neill McCleskey’s OFAC warning show a genuine commercial-legal trap: a payment made to obtain safe passage in Iranian waters may reduce the immediate risk of attack, but it can expose the owner to U.S. enforcement. The choice is therefore between vessel damage, crew harm and cargo loss on one side, and sanctions penalties on the other.

The Shuttle-and-Transfer Pattern Is Becoming the Real Routing Workaround

Tomer Raanan’s description of ships staying inside the Gulf and conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, with ADNOC, Sinokor and Kuwait Oil Company vessels among those involved, indicates that some Gulf shippers are fragmenting voyages into shorter legs. That reduces exposure in contested waters but adds transfer costs, time and counterparty complexity. The rise in VLCCs using Suez is another sign that routing decisions are shifting at the margin, even as overall Suez traffic remains slightly lower.

Red Sea Risk Has Not Reset

The fresh Ambrey report of an alleged Houthi UAV strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery at Jazan is unconfirmed in its damage assessment, but it keeps Red Sea routing risk elevated. Shipowners weighing Bab el-Mandeb transits must treat this as another indicator that Houthi targeting can resume around Saudi-linked energy infrastructure, which in turn feeds into insurance and security costs.

Routing and Compliance Checks After the Latest Hormuz and Red Sea Data

• Re-price Gulf loadings against the 30% weekly drop in outbound Hormuz transits. Charterers and owners should model longer shuttle and ship-to-ship legs inside the Gulf rather than assuming a normal direct transit.
• Before any safe-passage payment or security fee, document OFAC compliance. The legal exposure flagged by Clarity Compliance Consulting means the payment itself can become the enforcement risk.
• Use the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez weekly counts as a routing signal, not a trend. At 269 and 263 transits respectively, the declines are still within the normal fluctuation range analysts described, but the reported UAV attack on Jazan should be checked against current Red Sea insurance and security conditions before fixing cargo.
• Watch ADNOC, Sinokor and Kuwait Oil Company shuttle and ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman. Their behavior is a direct market signal of whether Gulf shippers continue to avoid full Hormuz transits.
• Separate physical risk from sanctions risk in voyage instructions. A vessel that is physically safer may still be legally exposed; the route decision should record that trade-off before departure.